Will democracy work this time?

AS Foreign Minister Dr. Ahmed Shaheed Stated in his address to India's Council of World Affairs in New Delhi, democratic reforms have been attempted on three different occasions in the Maldives since 1932. The earlier two attempts failed; but Shaheed claims that the current attempt could succeed.

While Shaheed does not specify the earlier two democratic movements, one can assume that the first of them was the one that ended with the label of 'Motor Boat Revolt.' The second was presumably the movement launched at the beginning of President Gayoom's regime, the movement that fizzled out and died with the 1998 Constitution.

Each movement was made possible during periods of weakness experienced by autocratic rulers. The earlier two movements failed when the ruler regained his composure. As Shaheed has also noticed the current movement is different in that the ruler was deposed before he could regain his authority. So it's left to the new ruler to complete the endgame. Will he stifle the movement if he does get full authority?

This time around there are certain safeguards against degradation into autocracy – independent judiciary and parliament. However they are not absolute guarantees. Parliamentary control can be regained through engineered defections. Judiciary can be cowed down by threats. So time alone will tell us the fate of the current democratic movement.

Gayoom and his Unsolicited Advisors

Everyone seems to love advising former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom on how he should conduct his life. The most popular pieces of advice are: stepping down from DRP leadership, leaving active politics and migrating abroad. The latest to join the list of Gayoom's unsolicited advisors is Nirja Deva, the European Union parliamentarian of Sri Lanka Tamil origin.

Mr. Deva advised the former President "it would be better for him to remain as a respected statesman like former presidents of other countries," Miadhu Daily reports. While speaking at a news conference in Dharubaaruge on Wednesday, he said "as the former President knows the international community very well, he can use his knowledge to seek advantage for Maldives at various international economic or environmental forums."

If one analyses individual pieces of advice Gayoom is receiving one would notice certain common factors. Firstly, most advisors have hitherto not been Gayoom's best friends and in fact many have been his avowed opponents till they suddenly decided to turn advisor. Mr. Deja himself had a rather lukewarm relationship with Gayoom when he was President.

Secondly, most suggestions appear to be of such a nature that if Gayoom accepts them, it would make life easy for his opponents. For example, the suggestion for him to leave active politics would remove from the scene a leader who still has the support of a significant share of the electorate. Similarly the suggestion for him to step down from DRP leadership could spark a succession war, weakening the party at a critical juncture.

So whose best interests do the advisors have in mind, Gayoom's or their own?