Election unlikely on October 4

It appears that the Presidential Election slated for October 4^th may not be held on that date. On Monday Commissioner of Elections Mohammed Ibrahim proposed this date contingent upon the establishment of the Supreme Court and the passage of two pieces of crucial legislation within this week: the Law on Elections and the Law on Presidential Election. Barring a miracle, these will not happen within that deadline. Where do we go from here?

One obvious implication is that the election must be postponed to allow time for passing the laws, drafting regulations and institutionalizing them. But how long can the election be postponed? To meet the constitutional deadline for inaugurating the new President on November 11, the first round of the election must finish latest by 31 October. This will leave a bare minimum of 10 days for completing the second round, should that become necessary. There is one problem however with such a postponement: Article 301 (Haa) of the Constitution requires that the Presidential Election must be completed by October 10.

Postponement of the date of inauguration beyond November 11 will involve an additional predicament. November 11 has traditionally been the date of oath taking right from 1968. Thus postponement beyond that date requires the crossing of a psychological barrier, in addition to the legal limit specified in Article 301 (Shaviyani) of the Constitution.

Some experts are of the opinion that postponement of the dates stipulated in Article 301 of the Constitution will lead to a legal void. But void or not, it must be done if necessary. As John Wayne says, "A man's gotta do what a man's gotta do." The Majlis and the new Supreme Court must be prepared to deal with this eventuality.

Apart from the legal constraints, is it desirable to postpone the election? This is a very controversial question and opinions are likely to be sharply divided. One argument against it is that postponement beyond November 11 will result in a government without legitimacy, a very imprudent precedent to create. Such an illegitimate government it is argued could go on indefinitely, an eventuality that will be unacceptable to the people and could lead to mass protests.

The argument for postponement is that it will give sufficient time for the newly formed Election Commission to do a thorough job instead of a hurried election. Additionally, it will also give the electorate enough time to get familiar with the manifestos of recently formed parties such as Jumhooree Party and Gaumee Itthihaad. The argument here is that the public must be given all opportunities to make an informed decision.

Despite the strong arguments against it, postponement of the election date now appears likely. And with each passing day the Election Commission is running out of options.

Munavvar’s selection a tactical move

Quoting reliable sources, the local media reports that Gasim Ibrahim has selected Dr. Mohammed Munavvar as his running mate. This appears to be a tactical move by Jumhooree Party to establish a base in the South, following the failure of talks with another Addu person, Dr. Ugail.

Selecting a running mate from Addu will be helpful to Gasim's bid for the presidency, not just because Addu is the most populous atoll. Addu people have a disproportionately high influence on Maldivian politics because of two reasons. First, they are more politically conscious than people of other atolls. Second, they are more connected to the internet compared to most other atolls, which enables committed activists among them to launch web-based campaigns.

Munavvar was formerly the President of MDP, a post he won in an election last year, in which he prevailed over Ibrahim Hussein Zaki. However, this year he lost the party presidential primaries to Mohammed Nasheed (Anni). When Jumhooree party was launched, he resigned from MDP and joined the new party.

What will Munavvar bring to Jumhooree party from Addu? Judging from his showing in the past two polls, he does have a core of loyal supporters in the atoll. However, in a four-way contest with MDP, DRP and Hassan Saeed, the share of votes Jumhooree Party actually gets may be somewhat less than what either Gasim or Munavvar expects.

Despite this, all in all, Munavvar is likely be positive at least in Addu for Jumhooree Party, which currently does not have sufficient party cadres in Addu to launch an effective campaign. With Munavvar's appointment the Party can immediately put to use his core supporters, an important consideration given the shortage of time left for the election.

At the national level, things are more difficult to predict. Unlike Dr. Ugail, Munavvar comes to Jumhooree Party with a heavy load of baggage, some of that positive and some negative. Only time will tell which way the load will tip.