What Next in Thimarafushi?

One hopes that nothing more happens in Thimarafushi, now that the election results have been declared, giving Mohamed Mustafa of the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) a narrow victory margin of 50 votes. Further litigation is unlikely to change the ground reality and will only vitiate the atmosphere further.

The most Ghassan Maumoon could hope for from taking the matter to the court would be nullify Mustafa's candidacy based on an old court case. If that happens many people in the constituency, particularly in Thimarafushi would feel cheated.

Whatever the truth, many Thimarafushi citizens nurse a long standing grudge that their island –the thickest populated in the area –has never had representation in the Majlis because of widespread vote rigging.

But today it is the moment of their victory. "I am very happy. This victory belongs to the people of this island and the history of this island is changing," an islander told Minivan News. "Because we have a lot of development plans. An airport, city hotels and a yacht marina."

So let the islanders enjoy their revelry and dreams while they last.

[Title photo from http://myislandthimarafushi.blogspot.com/]

What is at Stake for MDP and DRP in Thimarafushi

In a 'raazuvaa' (Maldivian Chess) challenge match, the player who wins the last three games swaggers away in triumph, irrespective of how many rounds were played earlier and who won them. Winning the Thimarafushi seat in the re-poll scheduled for 11 July would give MDP a raazuvaa type chance to walk away like a winner, despite the setbacks it suffered in the main Majlis elections.

For DRP on the other hand, a defeat for Ghassan, scion of their beloved 'Zaeem,' at the hands of Thimarafushi Mustafa, more famous till now as a sea cucumber merchant, is unthinkable. DRP revolves around Zaeem and Ghassan is his anointed successor.

Earlier, the High Court of Maldives had annulled the results of the two ballot boxes polled in Thimarafushi on 9^th May, citing the prevailing atmosphere, which in its opinion was not conducive to a free and fair election. The Court ordered a re-poll be conducted after establishing a more ambient atmosphere. This has left the two main candidates gunning for each other.

Miadhu Daily reports that Mustafa believes some people had spread stories and created confusion and doubts on the situation in Thimarafushi on Election Day. He says these stories were spread after Ghassan was sure of defeat. Mustafa also claims he has information that DRP is sending a group of gangsters to destabilize Thimarafushi and cause unrest.

In the meanwhile, Ghassan Maumoon has told DhiTV that the atmosphere in Thimarafushi is still not conducive for free or fair voting. He said election commission members and a large number of police officers must remain on the island to ensure peaceful and calm voting. Ghassan also complained that he had not been given the opportunity to hold a rally in the island.

Mustafa's chief weapon against Ghassan appears to be to raise chauvinistic feelings in Thimarafushi, playing on the fact that Ghassan is from Male. Ghassan's tactic appears to be to appeal to the youth by emphasizing Mustafa's age, calling him Mustafa Bey, which in Dhivehi has a double meaning (elder brother/old man).

According to an analyst, going by the results (not officially released) of the valid vote boxes in Guraidhoo, Gaadhiffushi and elsewhere, Ghassan has a lead of approximately 260 votes in hand. Mustafa needs to gain two thirds of the Thimarafushi vote to cover this deficit and win. This is not as difficult as it seems because Mustafa had earlier gained that much and more in the canceled results.