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During the final weeks of the campaign President Gayoom's campaign faced threats in some islands. Apart from minor violence directed at his running mate, there were no physical attacks. Did the threats trigger a sympathy wave for him among the undecided voters in those islands? To answer this question let us compare his vote share in those islands against his national vote share (40.6%).
Maavaah, Laamu Atoll: Protesters prevented unloading of Gayoom's car and his trip was called off.
- In the election Gayoom polled 53% from Maavah. This was 12.4 percentage points above his national average.
Hithadhoo, Laamu Atoll: A week before the election some senior members of DRP were forced off the island.
- Gayoom polled 48.5% from Hithadhoo. This was 7.9 percentage points above national average.
Kudahuvadhoo, Dhaalu Atoll: DRP Vice President Ahmed Shyam was forced to leave the island and Gayoom's trip to the island was called off.
- From Kudahuvadhoo Gayoom scored 43.2%. This was 2.6 percentage points above Gayoom's average across the nation.
Thulhaadhoo, Baa Atoll: Gayoom's running mate Thasmeen Ali was forced to leave the island.
- Gayoom scored 37.95% from Thulhaadhoo. This was 3.7 percentage points below his national average.
Huvarafushi, Haa Atoll: President Gayoom was physically attacked in the island at the beginning of the year. Though this occurred several months back, Huvarafushi was included in the analysis because the islanders are certain to retain vivid memories of the incident.
- From Huvarafushi Gayoom scored 40.4%. This was nearly equal to his national average.
Kulhuduffushi, Haa Dhaalu Atoll: Some resident of the island launched a virulent physical attack on Ahmed Abdullah, Minister for Environment at the time. This incident also occurred several months back, but was included because of its serious nature.
- Gayoom scored 41.4% from Kulhudhuffushi. This was 0.8 percentage points above his national average.
Comments:
In 4 of the islands Gayoom scored above his national average in the election. Only in one island did he score significantly below the national average. In evaluating the significance of these findings one must keep in mind that at the time of each incident the perpetrators probably thought they had an overwhelming majority in the island. If they were right about this, that majority eroded quite drastically following the incidents.
