Population Consolidation is Dead

As a national development strategy, population consolidation is as dead as a dodo. After a quarter-century long attempt to implement the strategy in various forms and names, the time has finally come to put it in its rightful place: the dustbin of history.

The strategy originated in the mid 1980s as the 'Selected Islands Development Project,' though the word 'population consolidation' was not coined till the mid 1990s. The purpose of the project was to counter in-migration towards Male by providing 'pull factors' such as health care, education and housing in selected islands.

The strategy was a washout. When it was launched, Male population was less than a quarter of the national population. Today it is more than a third and increasing. Statistics indicate that the declining trend of island population has crossed the point of no return. Between 2000 and 2006 an estimated 22,452 people migrated from the islands to Male. This rate will accelerate further as services in the islands continue to deteriorate, ironically as a result of declining population, which has entered a vicious cycle.

When island populations decrease below a certain critical level, there would be a mass exodus from the atolls. Past experience shows that the critical level could be about 250 inhabitants, at which point basic services become near impossible even with subsidization. Cases in point are Maavaidhoo and Faridhoo in Haa Dhaalu Atoll and Dhiyadhoo in Gaafu Alifu Atoll. Inhabitants of these islands have been desperately petitioning the government for relocation.

Fehendhoo, South Maalhosmadulu Atoll, is the latest island to join the migration queue. At the time of the latest Census in 2006, Fehendhoo had 114 people living on the island. The number has now declined to 64 in just three years. (This figure must not be confused with the registered population of 206, most of who live in Male). The 43 households in the island have requested for relocation to Gan, Haddhunmathi Atoll. The reasons put forward for relocation are the usual: lack of development opportunities, lack of education. Last year the island school closed because there were no students.

In Census 2000, there were only 17 islands with population below 250. But by 2006 there were 30 such islands, indicating the rapid decline in island population. These 30 will soon be on the queue for relocation. Even large islands are not immune from population decline. In 2000 there were 17 islands with population over 4000. However by 2006 the number of such high-population islands had declined to just 9.

The writing on the wall is clear. There are few islands with any potential to develop. The island population is declining so fast that soon there will be no population to consolidate. And finally there is no money to implement such mega projects. Population consolidation failed in the past; it will fail in the future.

Housing policies of 3 leading candidates

"Poorly planned urban neighborhoods are associated with petty crimes such as graffiti and vandalism", Patricia Brantingham writes in Harvard Internal Review. It's not just petty crime that happens in Male neighborhoods, but serious crimes like knifing and drug trafficking. Bad as this may be, crime is not the top problem for most Male citizens. It's housing shortage. Let us see what three leading candidates, Anni, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom and Hassan Saeed, offer them in their respective manifestos.

In reviewing these promises one must consider each candidate's understanding of the issue, what solutions he offers and how feasible they are. In considering economic feasibility one must keep in mind that the total revenue generated by the Government in 2008 is expected to be about $800 million. Against this, the proposal to build 7000 to 8000 flats will cost about $600 million at current rates. The bridge to Hulhumale is expected to cost at least $ 250 million. Developing an additional Hulhumale like city is expected to cost about $ 500 million. Considering such figures, an anonymous visitor to this blog left a comment saying, "some of the promises are so outrageous that a 10 year old kid will not believe them!"

Here are the salient features of the housing and urban development pledges of the three leading candidates:

How they see the Problem:

• Anni believes that the housing crisis is the result of the government's failed atoll development policies, which led to in-migration towards Male. Wasting $ 50 million on Hulhumale, the government has failed to find a solution to the congestion in Male Anni says. Due to lack of an effective policy or regulatory framework there is no access to an affordable real estate market.
  
• Hassan Saeed believes that the key issues are increasing rents and shortage of housing, which is aggravated by unfair regulations in the allotment of flats. The housing problem is accompanied by Lack of basic services, environmental vulnerability and division of the population.
  
• Gayoom believes that the housing problem is the result of population increase and in-migration to Male.
  
• All three candidates acknowledge that it is a serious issue that tsunami victims have not been provided housing even after 4 years.
  

Population consolidation

• Gayoom promises to build 7500 flats (1500 per year) in Hulhumale and build a bridge to connect it with Male. In the meanwhile Male will be re-developed and two alternative cities will be developed with flats and facilities similar to Hulhumale. Land reclamation will be undertaken in selected islands.
• Hassan Saeed promises to build 4 cities like Male, with the provision of 5000 – 8000 flats in those cities.
  
• Anni does not promise to build cities. Instead he will take long term measures to develop the atolls and provide housing, employment opportunities and other basic services, so that the atoll population will have no need to migrate to Male. A land use plan will be developed for each inhabited island.
  

Real estate business

• Gayoom promises to encourage the development of real estate business in the private sector, with long-term financing. He will strengthen/develop housing regulations.
  
• Hassan promises to stop making profits from essential services like housing. He will draft fair regulations on housing.
  
• Anni promises to facilitate the development of housing in the private sector by providing building material in the islands, facilitating loans, and developing regulations.
  

Tsunami housing

• Anni and Gayoom promise to compete tsunami housing in one year.
  
• Hassan Saeed promises to complete tsunami housing within a definite time
  

Social housing

• All three candidates promise long term loans and subsidized housing for the vulnerable groups.