A Bridge Too Far?

Few development proposals have stirred as much controversy as the Bridge to Hulhumale. Supporters see it as a bridge to the future, while opponents see it as an unattainable dream. Let us examine some of the hottest debates.

Technical feasibility

The distance between Male and Hulhule is about 960 meters, land to land, and 860 meters, reef to reef. Compared to this the longest span in the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco is about 1200 meters. The average depth of the Golden Gate channel is 120 meters. These figures would appear to suggest the bridge is technically feasible. However there are other issues to be solved such as the shortage of land to locate base structures. How the stream of traffic from the bridge will cross the runway safely is also a thorny issue.

Economic feasibility

When the idea of the bridge was first mooted the estimated cost was $30 million. In more recent estimates the cost has escalated to $60 million. It's likely that when detailed specifications are available the cost would jump over $100 million. (Golden Gate was constructed at a cost of $33 million in the 1930s. Its total length is twice the Hulhumale Bridge).

Opponents see the cost of the bridge as a burden that can never be recovered through toll. Supporters say all public infrastructure is not built on cost recovery basis. They cite examples such as regional airports, Male Sea Wall and island harbors. The strongest argument for the bridge is the relief it will bring to congestion in Male by opening up hundreds of thousands of square feet of housing area and parking space.

Let’s have your views on the controversy.

Anni’s housing policy looks more realistic

Candidate Nasheed's housing policy aims to foster home ownership. To achieve this he promises easy access to building materials, soft loans and an affordable real estate market. Unlike others in the fray, Anni has resisted the temptation to make populist promises like building Male-like cities and 8000 flats, which on deeper analysis appear to be little more than castles in the air. Further, these dream projects have the potential of turning nightmare, as explained below. Thus Anni's approach to housing appears to be more down to earth and sustainable.

It goes without saying that policies must be based on the situation on the ground. For example, what is the real demand for flats in the Maldives? Based on the number of people who applied for Hulhumale flats in 2006 and the Census (2006) data on the number of people living in rented places, the demand for flats has been estimated to be about 9000. (Details given in Appendix 1 below).

How many flats are currently under construction in Male? Based on Municipality data on the number and size of buildings authorized for construction in Male within the last 5 years, the equivalent of about 14,000 flats are probably under construction. (Details given in appendix 2). This figure itself is higher than the estimated demand of 9000. If one adds the promised 6000 - 8000 flats, then the supply would appear to be double the demand. What effect will this have on the real estate market?

As given in Appendix 2, more than 3000 buildings are currently authorized for construction in Male alone. Most of the owners of these buildings would have taken commercial loans to finance them. They would depend on a certain minimum rent to be able to repay the loans. If 6000 – 8000 flats are artificially injected into the market, will the rents remain at sustainable levels to repay the loans?

In reviewing campaign promises one must also consider their economic feasibility, keeping in mind that the total government revenue per year is expected to be about $800 million. Against this, the proposal to build 7000 to 8000 flats will cost about $600 million at current rates. Developing an additional Hulhumale like city is expected to cost about $ 500 million.

In summary, the housing policies of presidential candidates take two different approaches. One is to inject thousands of flats into the market within just 5 years. Theoretically this could be a quick fix solution. But is it economically feasible? What effect will it have on individual enterprise and homeownership? Further, this approach is merely old wine in a new bottle. What makes one think it will work this time?

The alternative approach favored by Anni is to help individuals build their own homes. This approach will be slower, but probably more realistic and sustainable.

Appendix 1:
Demand for flats

The demand for flats has not been researched formally. But we can get a fairly good idea from the number of people who applied for plots of land in Hulhumale in 2006. These plots were open to all citizens anywhere in the Maldives above 21 years who did not have plots in their names. Thus the number of people who applied (11,889) can be taken as the number of people who wished to own a house. The actual demand may be considerably lower because all those who wish to have a house may not be able to afford even subsidized rents. Take the case of those who bought row houses in Hulhumale. As many as 24% of those who got the row houses gave them up because they could not afford the rent. Taking this into consideration, perhaps only about 9000 (out of the 11,889) can be considered to be the real demand for flats/homes. This figure is also in harmony with the Census 2006 figures, which show that only 6335 households live in rented accommodation (out of the total 46,000 households in the Maldives).

Appendix 2:
Estimate of flats currently under construction in Male

The promised 7000 to 8000 flats don't come in a vacuum. There is already a brisk real estate market in Male. According to Municipality data, during the last 5 years they authorized the construction of 3020 buildings in Male with a total residential area of 938,962 square meters. This is the equivalent of 14,445 flats (of size 65 sq m). Of these 928 buildings were completed during the 5-year period adding 129,336 square meters of residential space to Male. This is the equivalent of 1990 flats.

[Note: Data used in this article are sourced from (1) Party manifestos, (2) Statistical Yearbook 2007 and (3) Press briefings of Hulhumale Development Corporation in 2006.]

Acknowledgment: The aerial photo of Male is from the blog Maldives in Still Mode (http://mashafeeg.blogspot.com/)

Housing policies of 3 leading candidates

"Poorly planned urban neighborhoods are associated with petty crimes such as graffiti and vandalism", Patricia Brantingham writes in Harvard Internal Review. It's not just petty crime that happens in Male neighborhoods, but serious crimes like knifing and drug trafficking. Bad as this may be, crime is not the top problem for most Male citizens. It's housing shortage. Let us see what three leading candidates, Anni, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom and Hassan Saeed, offer them in their respective manifestos.

In reviewing these promises one must consider each candidate's understanding of the issue, what solutions he offers and how feasible they are. In considering economic feasibility one must keep in mind that the total revenue generated by the Government in 2008 is expected to be about $800 million. Against this, the proposal to build 7000 to 8000 flats will cost about $600 million at current rates. The bridge to Hulhumale is expected to cost at least $ 250 million. Developing an additional Hulhumale like city is expected to cost about $ 500 million. Considering such figures, an anonymous visitor to this blog left a comment saying, "some of the promises are so outrageous that a 10 year old kid will not believe them!"

Here are the salient features of the housing and urban development pledges of the three leading candidates:

How they see the Problem:

• Anni believes that the housing crisis is the result of the government's failed atoll development policies, which led to in-migration towards Male. Wasting $ 50 million on Hulhumale, the government has failed to find a solution to the congestion in Male Anni says. Due to lack of an effective policy or regulatory framework there is no access to an affordable real estate market.
  
• Hassan Saeed believes that the key issues are increasing rents and shortage of housing, which is aggravated by unfair regulations in the allotment of flats. The housing problem is accompanied by Lack of basic services, environmental vulnerability and division of the population.
  
• Gayoom believes that the housing problem is the result of population increase and in-migration to Male.
  
• All three candidates acknowledge that it is a serious issue that tsunami victims have not been provided housing even after 4 years.
  

Population consolidation

• Gayoom promises to build 7500 flats (1500 per year) in Hulhumale and build a bridge to connect it with Male. In the meanwhile Male will be re-developed and two alternative cities will be developed with flats and facilities similar to Hulhumale. Land reclamation will be undertaken in selected islands.
• Hassan Saeed promises to build 4 cities like Male, with the provision of 5000 – 8000 flats in those cities.
  
• Anni does not promise to build cities. Instead he will take long term measures to develop the atolls and provide housing, employment opportunities and other basic services, so that the atoll population will have no need to migrate to Male. A land use plan will be developed for each inhabited island.
  

Real estate business

• Gayoom promises to encourage the development of real estate business in the private sector, with long-term financing. He will strengthen/develop housing regulations.
  
• Hassan promises to stop making profits from essential services like housing. He will draft fair regulations on housing.
  
• Anni promises to facilitate the development of housing in the private sector by providing building material in the islands, facilitating loans, and developing regulations.
  

Tsunami housing

• Anni and Gayoom promise to compete tsunami housing in one year.
  
• Hassan Saeed promises to complete tsunami housing within a definite time
  

Social housing

• All three candidates promise long term loans and subsidized housing for the vulnerable groups.