Results of Round 2 of Presidential Election 2013

Round One of Presidential Elections was held on 7th September 2013. However, that election was annulled by the Supreme Court of Maldives.  Later, the First Round was held on 9th November 2013. No candidate secured the necessary 50% plus in this round. A run off was held on 16th November between the two front runners, Mohammed Nasheed and Abdullah Yamin. This blog post gives the details of the votes won by the two candidates, box by box.

The results show a narrow victory for Abdulla Yamin. (51.39% of valid votes cast.) 

This data is being provided for academic purposes only. While all care was taken to ensure accuracy, the author takes no responsibility for any errors. The source of data is the Elections Commission of Maldives. Click here for the detailed results.

The Presidential Address – what do we make of it?

By Ahmed Afaal*

After a long and hard struggle to attain democracy in the Maldives, 28 October 2008 marked a historic day that led to the end of a 30 year long presidency followed by a courageous display of democratic transition from both the out going and in coming presidents. Like the vast majority of people who voted for change, I waited anxiously for the new beginning. Finally on 11 November 2008, a moment long awaited, a new chapter headlined in the Maldivian democracy, a new president was sworn in.

Now comes the time of delivery. The first impressions are always important. I was one eager listener to the first Presidential Address from a different person in my whole life. I had a lot of expectations. What directions are we going to take? After listening to the Address, it took some time for me to really think about what was said. What was the message? Keeping what I thought for myself, I asked around a lot of people what they thought of the speech. Many were unable to say something concrete but most of the intellectual people that I asked were not really impressed with it. One of them told me that, and I quote "The campaign is now over, why he delivered another campaign speech after being sworn in!" Well I felt kind of the same.

So what shall a good presidential address do? In 1946 George Orwell published an essay "Politics and the English Language" that describes some insight into good political speeches. Many of the American analysts still use this assay as a baseline for speech assessment. Though the speech was not in English, the inaugural address of the President exhibited some staleness and vagueness which according to Orwell, lacks the strength of such a speech. Also the address didn't meet Orwell's criteria for an effective political speech because it was filled with the same political slogans that had been in the media and campaign speeches for the last four or so years. The strategic directions rolling over to the implementation of the slogans were lacking.

As for me I felt that the President delivered a vision statement. I agree that the promises need to be renewed but that renewal shall now come with strategic direction. I was expecting elaborations on the current economic situation of the country and specific strategies to address it. Elaborations on the 'how' of tackling the drug situation, health care, education and the rest of the five pledges would have been included. What actions would the President put immediately to overcome the challenges he faced and so forth.

Does this mean that the strategic communication unit of the President was up to par? Did the president do his own speech? Or did he miss to deliver part of the Address? Wasn't it analyzed critically before delivery? Who gave the technical inputs to the Address? These are some questions among many that people may have in their minds.

Ironically, the Maldivian media also did not give a good analysis of the speech. Not surprisingly they only knew to repeat what the President said on their headlines. Rich critical analysis of such Addresses shall now be presented by the media for the benefit of the public.

[*This analysis was presented by Ahmed Afaal, for the readers of this blog. He has his own blog (No politics) at http://afaal.blogspot.com/. As always I welcome contributions from the readers of this blog, which I will publish for the benefit of other readers and to keep this blog rich in content.]

Getting the Priorities Right

By Farooq Mohamed Hassan*

Tomorrow Mr. Mohamed Nasheed will take oath as the 4^th President of Maldives. Needless to say that he is taking over the stewardship of our government at a time when the world is facing a series of unprecedented challenges, ranging from a financial crisis, food safety, energy security, poverty and climate change to environmental deterioration – challenges that are directly related to our very survival, development and security. Mr. Nasheed's stewardship will certainly be judged by his ability to maneuver his government through the troubled waters.

And more specifically, we have a huge budget deficit to deal with. Then, there is the tsunami affected population, the non-performing public companies, including STELCO which has run into huge debts. Then there are the on-going projects and the numerous other projects that are in pipeline, whose loan and contract agreements have already been signed and ready to be implemented. All these issues and challenges are over and above the promises made by the MDP-Iththihaadhu during the election campaign. And of course, we should not forget the prevailing high expectations of the population, and the presence of a responsible opposition to hold Nasheed's government accountable.

There are also the external factors that necessitate prioritization of issues. The on-going global financial crisis and the unpredictability of the oil market being the most worrisome. Therefore, getting the priorities right should be the new government's first and foremost priority. Others, though not in order of priority are;

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  Respect human rights. This is important because of the on-going discussions with respect to the reforming of the international institutions, including their rules and mechanisms of governance, which are placing a much higher emphasis on making the principles related to human rights as the basis of international relations.
  


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  Maintain peace and security. Maintenance of peace and security is essential to ensure the smooth functioning of the government in the difficult times ahead. Our disadvantages in terms of lack of skilled labor and developed legal systems, high costs of energy, transportation, water and sanitation, etc., will have to be offset by maintaining peace and security.
  
  
  

  
  



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  Promote and strengthen democratic governance. According to the UNDP's Human Development Report 2002, countries that have good governance systems that are fully accountable to all people, and in which people can participate in debates and decisions that shape their lives, are more successful in promoting human development for all. According to this report, democracy not only helps to protect people from economic and political disasters, but also contribute to political stability. The report also states that democratic governance that includes tolerance for political opposition and smooth transition of power initiates a continuous cycle of development, because of the fact that political freedom empowers people to press for policies that expand social and economic opportunities.
  
  
  

  
  



• 
  
  Maintain economic stability. This is important to attract foreign direct investment to the country. Government planners and economists across the world agree that at a time when the world is going through financial tsunami, maintaining economic stability is the key to avert a down spiral of a country's economy. The vulnerability of our economy lies in our narrow economic base - tourism and fishing, which are heavily dependent on the economic performance of foreign countries. It is important therefore, that the government makes a strong resolve to take a responsible attitude and work together to maintain our economic stability. Any significant drop in anticipated or projected income will severely restrict the government's ability to deliver its promises.
  
  
  

  
  



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  Maintain good governance as defined by budgetary discipline.
  
  
  

  By good governance I mean better budgetary discipline at national level, and more realistic forecasting and more reliable statistics. Since fiscal and monetary policies are interdependent, government needs to formulate clear, transparent and consistent monetary policy to know how to conduct fiscal policy. Here, national institutions could play an important role in budgetary surveillance through increased attention to the development of public finances in public opinion. It is also necessary to have rules for fiscal policy that limit deficits and debt, and to follow these rules in a credible manner.
  

  
  

  
  



• 
  
  Strengthen the office of the Auditor General and the Anti-Corruption Commission. International best practices teach us that transparency and goals help form expectations and behavior, and in enlisting the public in the struggle for macroeconomic soundness. As evident in the recently released audit reports of the various government offices and public companies, the Auditor General's office and the Anti-Corruption Commission could act as advisory bodies and watch-dogs over government offices and public companies. They could also create a continuous national dialogue with warnings and recommendations to politicians - a measure that would boost transparency, and put long-term fiscal goals at the heart of the debate, and thereby improve fiscal soundness.
  

As mentioned in the beginning, Mohamed Nasheed's government is inheriting a financial mess created by the out-going government. Mr. Nasheed is also taking charge of the government in the midst of the worst financial crises after the Great Depression of the '30's. Therefore, for this and other reasons discussed above, it is important that the new government keep a short list of priorities to ensure the smooth functioning of our economy and that the election promises are delivered. Finally, I would like to once again emphasize that, in this crucial moment, a solution to the economic and other challenges confronting the new government can only be achieved by getting the priorities right, and by working with strong confidence, concerted efforts and shared responsibility.

Note: I will be leaving Xiamen, PRC, tomorrow to continue the rest of my course work in Beijing. Dr. Waheed , thank you very much for being so kind and generous to post my writings on your personal blog, I also like to say a very warm 'thank you' to all those who read this blog, and especially to those who by means of their valuable comments enriched my knowledge and broadened my understanding. Cheers!

[*Faarooq Mohamed Hassan is a former shadow cabinet member of MDP and is also the Deputy Director General of the Environment Research Center.]

Innovation as a Catalyst for Change

By Farooq Mohamed Hassan*

Like in successful businesses, political processes and reform movements also require innovation to be successful. When I say innovation, I mean more than just developing new ideas; for instance, the ability to recognize changes as a catalyst to anticipate and improve the ways in which the process or the movement needs to evolve in order to succeed in a changing environment. The political reform movement led by the former Chairperson of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), Mohamed Nasheed (Anni) succeeded because of this element of innovation in their campaign.

Stepping back a bit further, the end of the cold war and the resulting changes in geopolitical interests of the United States and its allies, resulted in dictators falling out of favor with the freedom loving nations of the world. As a result, Dictators became an endangered species – with no place to hide, and no one to protect them.

Anni saw this as an opportunity and a challenge. Initially as a writer, and later as a political activist, Anni demonstrated his skills and his ability to recognize innovation as catalyst for change in the rapidly changing environment, both abroad and at home.

The struggle for democracy and fundamental rights led by Anni in Maldives was an uphill battle. It was a battle that was fought in two fronts; internationally and locally. The reform movement which began in early 1990's, was met with fierce resistance from the dictator. Anni and many of his supporters were jailed, tried and banished. They were accused, abused and at times, tortured. Some of them have long left us. They were the ones that were not so fortunate to live to taste the sweetness of their noble struggle. However, they will be fondly remembered for generations to come. And they will be honored for the sacrifices they have made for the freedom of generations to come.

In the entire history of this struggle for democracy, freedom and fundamental rights, the past four to five years have been the most turbulent. It began with the brutal killing of Evan Naseem who was serving his prison term in Maafushi jail, and it has culminated in the overthrowing of the dictator - Maumoon and his regime from power, in the first ever multi-party election held in the country's entire history, on October 28, 2008.

Many just wonder as to how the Maldivians succeeded in overthrowing a dictator who has been in power for thirty long years, in such a short time. Yes! How did we do this? I would say, by being innovative. First, as Anni used to say, the word 'Golhaa Boa' was a scientific innovation to cut dictator Maumoon to size. Second, by empowering the people. This was also achieved by being innovative – by encouraging the people to 'get rid of their fear' of being punished by the regime, by 'each getting strength from the other' – in other words, through 'collective strength'. And third, by taking on to the street – to make the voice of dissent be heard and respected.

With pressure from the reform movement, the stagnant Special Majlis began more active, with Mr. Gasim Ibrahim elected to the Chair. With the new constitution passed and ratified, with independent commissions set up, the Dictators control over the affairs of the state began to crumble. In a primary held to decide MDP's presidential candidate, Anni emerged as the victor. This was followed by several so called 'heavy weights' resigning the party. For many party activists, it seemed all was lost. Mr. Zaki stepped in and salvaged the Party as he did following the crisis MDP fell into following the November 10 incidence of 2006. The rest is history.

No sooner had Anni submitted his candidacy for the presidency, he was accused of lacking leadership quality, both from outside and within the party supporters. Once again it was Anni's ability to innovate for change that united the opposition against the Dictator. And as events unfolded, it proved that there was none better than Anni to lead the reform movement.

Many of you would recall that when on Siyaasath Program, Maumoon was asked whether he saw lack of credible leaders in the country as his failure, he denied it out right. Leaving Maumoon's denial for the readers to judge, the undeniable truth is that, a shortage of capable and credible leaders of change persists because change has never been easy. According to Niccolo Machiavelli, the most difficult to carryout, the most doubtful of success, and the most dangerous to handle, is to initiate a new order of things. This is because the reform has enemies in all those who profit from the old order and only lukewarm defenders by all those who could profit by the new order. According to Machiavelli, this lukewarmness arises from the incredulity of mankind who do not truly believe in anything new until they have had actual experience with it.

Indeed! How very true. More than 500 years ago, Machiavelli, has very accurately described one of the innate natures of mankind. In retrospect, the truth of this statement is quite vivid in the changing political scenarios in our country. Today, when success seems not only within reach, but has actually been achieved, even those so called 'heavy weights', who left MDP after blaming its leadership, or were reluctant to work with Anni , are slowly coming back and joining the party. Whatever their reasons for joining MDP may be, the speed with which the changes are taking place now in Maldives, in particular, during the last few days, has underscored the essential role innovation has played in driving the very successful, yet, peaceful and historic change in Maldives.

[*Faarooq Mohamed Hassan is a former shadow cabinet member of MDP and is also the Deputy Director General of the Environment Research Center.]

Some challenges for the new government

The honeymoon period of Mohamed Nasheed (Anni)'s new government is likely to be short. Expectations are high among supporters, while a bruised DRP is lying in ambush for its first opportunity to strike ahead of the Majlis elections in February. So the government will be hard pressed to show results, despite overwhelming challenges.

Budget crisis:

Finance Minister Jihad has said there will be a revenue shortfall of 2.4 billion within this year. While his claim that the government has not defaulted on salary payments is true, it is also equally true that many low level employees are suffering because of restrictions on overtime payments. Finance ministry sources say the revenue for 2009 is not expected to cross the 8 billon mark. This would leave very little for development projects. So the picture is not very rosy for fulfilling election promises, unless alternative sources of revenue are identified.

Independent institutions:

Independent institutions described in the new Constitution, such as Election Commission, Auditor General, Supreme Court, Anti-Corruption Commission, and the Civil Services Commission are in various stages of infancy. They must be made fully functional and truly independent, in order to ensure that democracy takes root in the Maldives.

Strengthening the legal framework:

The Majlis faces a Herculean task in passing crucial legislation in several key areas such as local governance, penal code, political parties, university, pensions, health services, prison and parole etc. The task is all the more difficult because the ruling coalition does not command a majority in the Majlis. So the government will need all the diplomatic skills it can muster to ensure the smooth passage of laws through the Majlis.

Congratulations Mohamed Nasheed (Anni)

Warmest congratulations to Mohamed Nasheed (Anni), Dr. Waheed and the Wathan Edhey Gothah Coalition for their decisive victory in Presidential Election 2008. Congratulations also to all Maldivians. You have a new leader, a new beginning and a new future.

Wathan Edhey Gothah team has truly created history by bringing down Asia's longest surviving leader. Such leaders have rarely been defeated at the ballot box anywhere in the world. Anni truly deserves praise for his vision and resolve.

"Long years ago we made a tryst with destiny, and now the time comes when we shall redeem our pledge…. A moment comes, which comes but rarely in history, when we step out from the old to the new, when an age ends, and when the soul of a nation, long suppressed, finds utterance…The achievement we celebrate today is but a step, an opening of opportunity, to the greater triumphs and achievements that await us. Are we brave enough and wise enough to grasp this opportunity and accept the challenge of the future?" –Jawaharlal Nehru

Snapping at the Snap Election

Wathan Edhey Gothah Coalition candidate Mohamed Nasheed (Anni) has thrown a spanner in the works by announcing a snap mid-term election if he becomes president. The news was greeted by a flurry of condemnatory terms ranging from 'unconstitutional', 'against the spirit of the Constitution', 'undependable' and 'untrustworthy'. Is this a mere storm in the tea cup or is there something more than meets the eye?

Not being Constitutional experts, most of us will not be able to understand the 'spirit of the Constitution.' But fortunately it's rather easy to read the letter of the Constitution, which is in plain Dhivehi. Here are the translations of some relevant clauses.

Clause 124 (b)

"In the event of the permanent incapacity, resignation, removal or death of both the President or the Vice President, and both offices becoming vacant at the same time, leading to an incapacity to carry out the duties of the President, until such time as a President and a Vice President shall be elected, the duties of both offices shall temporarily be carried out, in order of priority, by the Speaker of the People's Majlis, or by the Deputy Speaker of the People's Majlis, or by a member of the People's Majlis elected by a resolution of the People's Majlis, until successors in office are chosen."

Clause 125 (a)

"If any of the instances specified in Article 124 (b) of this Constitution occur and both the office of the President and the Vice President become vacant at the same time, a Presidential election shall be held within sixty days of both offices becoming vacant and appointments shall be made to both offices."

In major democracies of the world such as the UK, Germany, France, Italy and India, it is quite common to see mid-term elections for the post of head of government. USA is a notable exception to this practice, with Vice President's taking over when the Presidency falls vacant. The US practice however comes at a cost. Someone can become President without ever facing a national election (even as a running mate). This is not just theory. In real life Vice President Gerald Ford became the 38^th President of the United States when Richard Nixon resigned in 1974. Earlier in 1973 he had become Vice President when Spiro Agnew (who was Nixon's running mate) resigned. Thus Ford never faced an election either as presidential candidate or running mate. The way the current Constitution of the Maldives is written, a similar incident could occur.

Since the Maldives has held presidential swearing ceremonies on November 11^th once in 5 years since 1968, one could be forgiven if one mistook that as the spirit of the Constitution. However it had nothing to do with any spirit. It was just coincidence. If any of the incumbents had resigned or died in office, a fresh election would have been held within 60 days of the event and the new president would have gone for a full 5-year term beginning from the new date, thus upsetting the November 11 routine.

What then is the spirit of the Constitution? Is it to permanently set the timings of Presidential and Majlis elections to October and February of the following year respectively? Is this the ideal timing? Given that timing, would the newly elected President be in a stronger position to influence the Majlis elections coming just 4 months later? Would this affect the separation of powers? These are some questions one must consider.

Anni’s housing policy looks more realistic

Candidate Nasheed's housing policy aims to foster home ownership. To achieve this he promises easy access to building materials, soft loans and an affordable real estate market. Unlike others in the fray, Anni has resisted the temptation to make populist promises like building Male-like cities and 8000 flats, which on deeper analysis appear to be little more than castles in the air. Further, these dream projects have the potential of turning nightmare, as explained below. Thus Anni's approach to housing appears to be more down to earth and sustainable.

It goes without saying that policies must be based on the situation on the ground. For example, what is the real demand for flats in the Maldives? Based on the number of people who applied for Hulhumale flats in 2006 and the Census (2006) data on the number of people living in rented places, the demand for flats has been estimated to be about 9000. (Details given in Appendix 1 below).

How many flats are currently under construction in Male? Based on Municipality data on the number and size of buildings authorized for construction in Male within the last 5 years, the equivalent of about 14,000 flats are probably under construction. (Details given in appendix 2). This figure itself is higher than the estimated demand of 9000. If one adds the promised 6000 - 8000 flats, then the supply would appear to be double the demand. What effect will this have on the real estate market?

As given in Appendix 2, more than 3000 buildings are currently authorized for construction in Male alone. Most of the owners of these buildings would have taken commercial loans to finance them. They would depend on a certain minimum rent to be able to repay the loans. If 6000 – 8000 flats are artificially injected into the market, will the rents remain at sustainable levels to repay the loans?

In reviewing campaign promises one must also consider their economic feasibility, keeping in mind that the total government revenue per year is expected to be about $800 million. Against this, the proposal to build 7000 to 8000 flats will cost about $600 million at current rates. Developing an additional Hulhumale like city is expected to cost about $ 500 million.

In summary, the housing policies of presidential candidates take two different approaches. One is to inject thousands of flats into the market within just 5 years. Theoretically this could be a quick fix solution. But is it economically feasible? What effect will it have on individual enterprise and homeownership? Further, this approach is merely old wine in a new bottle. What makes one think it will work this time?

The alternative approach favored by Anni is to help individuals build their own homes. This approach will be slower, but probably more realistic and sustainable.

Appendix 1:
Demand for flats

The demand for flats has not been researched formally. But we can get a fairly good idea from the number of people who applied for plots of land in Hulhumale in 2006. These plots were open to all citizens anywhere in the Maldives above 21 years who did not have plots in their names. Thus the number of people who applied (11,889) can be taken as the number of people who wished to own a house. The actual demand may be considerably lower because all those who wish to have a house may not be able to afford even subsidized rents. Take the case of those who bought row houses in Hulhumale. As many as 24% of those who got the row houses gave them up because they could not afford the rent. Taking this into consideration, perhaps only about 9000 (out of the 11,889) can be considered to be the real demand for flats/homes. This figure is also in harmony with the Census 2006 figures, which show that only 6335 households live in rented accommodation (out of the total 46,000 households in the Maldives).

Appendix 2:
Estimate of flats currently under construction in Male

The promised 7000 to 8000 flats don't come in a vacuum. There is already a brisk real estate market in Male. According to Municipality data, during the last 5 years they authorized the construction of 3020 buildings in Male with a total residential area of 938,962 square meters. This is the equivalent of 14,445 flats (of size 65 sq m). Of these 928 buildings were completed during the 5-year period adding 129,336 square meters of residential space to Male. This is the equivalent of 1990 flats.

[Note: Data used in this article are sourced from (1) Party manifestos, (2) Statistical Yearbook 2007 and (3) Press briefings of Hulhumale Development Corporation in 2006.]

Acknowledgment: The aerial photo of Male is from the blog Maldives in Still Mode (http://mashafeeg.blogspot.com/)

What would MDP Aneh Dhivehi Rajje feel like?

"A moment comes, which comes but rarely in history, when we step out from the old to the new, when an age ends, and when the soul of the nation, long suppressed, finds utterance." –Jawaharlal Nehru

MDP presidential candidate Mohammed Nasheed (Anni) echoed Nehru's famous 'Tryst with Destiny' speech in the opening of salvo of the Riyaasee Suvaalu debate, which he decisively won according to most viewers.

"There will be moments in a country's life," Anni said, "moments that change the country's situation from one state to another." He then went on to describe the current state where citizens daily face the rising cost of living, where one in five families live in a single room, and where people are forced to beg for health care. Anni then promised to take the country to the shores of Aneh Dhivehi Rajje.

But how would it feel like to live in Aneh Dhivehi Rajje? Anni painted quite a vivid picture of Aneh Dhivehi Rajje in his four brief statements during the debate. Perhaps it was the cohesiveness of this picture that enabled Anni to outscore his rivals, many of who were reputed orators. Here are the main elements of the picture:

• There will be clean government, with no place for authoritarian rule. This will be ensured through a competitive political process in a multiparty environment. Businessmen will not be allowed to pollute the political process.
  


• In Aneh Dhivehi Rajje, the government will be compassionate and listen to the concerns of the people. It will give priority to address these concerns.
  


• Reducing the cost of living will be the main thrust of economic policy. In Aneh Dhivehi Rajje, the cost of living will be affordable.
  


• People will not have to spend half their life waiting for a house in Aneh Dhivehi Rajje. Every citizen will have access to long term financing to own a home.
  


• In Aneh Dhivehi Rajje, a transport network will connect all islands. It will enhance trade by facilitating the transfer of services and goods from one island to the other.
  


• The people will not have to beg for healthcare in Aneh Dhivehi Rajje. All citizens will be covered under a health insurance scheme.
  


• In Aneh Dhivehi Rajje, the doors will be closed for drug smuggling. However, those who fall victim to drugs will be treated with compassion.
  


• The people will get the full benefit of national income from tourism and fisheries. This will be ensured, among other things, by reducing wasteful government expenditure.
  


• In Aneh Dhivehi Rajje, the government will develop the resources, equipment, people and facilities needed for tourism and fisheries.
  


• People will be empowered to stand on their own feet, generate income, and proudly help their own children, family and relatives.
  


• Citizens' human rights will be protected in Aneh Dhivehi Rajje. And the people will vote wisely to elect their government.