Is the PA-DRP agreement genuine?

Wathan Edhey Gothah Coalition has revealed to the media a document they say is an agreement between President Gayoom's DRP and his brother Abdulla Yamin's PA, detailing their plans to share power if Gayoom wins the election on 28^th October. The 'leaked' agreement raises several questions: First, is it genuine? And if so, what's the significance?

Authenticity

At a joint news conference held to announce the coalition between DRP and PA at Dharubaaruge on 22 September, DRP Spokesman Ibrahim Shafiu referred to an 'agreement.' When asked whether the cooperation between the two parties was conditional on including PA ministers in the cabinet, Shafiu said in Dhivehi, "the two leaders will continue to give the details. Here we have a basic agreement. What I want to say is that it cannot be ruled out. And if it happens DRP will welcome it. That's because PA includes senior leaders who brought DRP into being in its formative stages. It will be an honor if one of them sits in a seat of our government." Two significant points may be inferred from Shaifu's statement:

1. On 22 September there was a written agreement between the two parties. (Written because people normally don't use the word agreement when speaking in Dhivehi unless there was a written document.)
   
   
2. The agreement at that stage did not include details of sharing cabinet seats, details of which would continue to be given by the two leaders. (The use of the continuous tense suggests an ongoing negotiation process.)
   

The document revealed to the media did not bear signatures. This does not prove it is fake. But it does prove one thing: Even if it is genuine it is merely a draft. This would again appear to point towards an ongoing negotiation process. Thus (assuming the document is genuine) there could have been later drafts and a possible signed final agreement. One thing is certain: What is in front of the media is certainly not the signed final agreement. At best it is a genuine draft.

The date on the revealed document is 1 September 2008, which is 3 weeks before the Dharubaaruge news conference. If Shafiu was telling the truth on 22 September that no agreement was still reached, what was the reason for this prolonged delay? Negotiation failure? If that is the case, could this be the initial starting proposal submitted by PA, which was ultimately rejected by DRP? (All this is supposing the draft is authentic).

What really is the document revealed by the Wathan Edhey Coalition? While there are many possibilities, the following 4 stand out:

1. A draft leaked by an opposition sympathizer in either the DRP or PA camp.
   


2. A fake document produced by the opposition to discredit DRP.
   


3. A draft leaked by DRP, the motive being to scuttle negotiations that are not going its way.
   


4. A draft leaked by PA (No plausible motive visible at present).
   

Significance

If genuine, the agreement will allow Abdulla Yamin to control the economic sectors of Maldives, with his PA controlling 25 percent of Gayoom's cabinet. Yamin will head a super ministry –economic and tourism development –and have veto power over financial decisions.

Should the public be worried?

According to Dr. Jameel of the Watthan Edhey Coalition, the agreement violates the Constitution. He says it delegates some of the powers of the president and the cabinet to Yamin and a 6-member committee.

Deputy Media Manager of Maumoon 2008 campaign Ali Waheed has said the 'leaked' document was not genuine. However he also pointed out that there was nothing wrong with forging a coalition agreement among political parties.

Snapping at the Snap Election

Wathan Edhey Gothah Coalition candidate Mohamed Nasheed (Anni) has thrown a spanner in the works by announcing a snap mid-term election if he becomes president. The news was greeted by a flurry of condemnatory terms ranging from 'unconstitutional', 'against the spirit of the Constitution', 'undependable' and 'untrustworthy'. Is this a mere storm in the tea cup or is there something more than meets the eye?

Not being Constitutional experts, most of us will not be able to understand the 'spirit of the Constitution.' But fortunately it's rather easy to read the letter of the Constitution, which is in plain Dhivehi. Here are the translations of some relevant clauses.

Clause 124 (b)

"In the event of the permanent incapacity, resignation, removal or death of both the President or the Vice President, and both offices becoming vacant at the same time, leading to an incapacity to carry out the duties of the President, until such time as a President and a Vice President shall be elected, the duties of both offices shall temporarily be carried out, in order of priority, by the Speaker of the People's Majlis, or by the Deputy Speaker of the People's Majlis, or by a member of the People's Majlis elected by a resolution of the People's Majlis, until successors in office are chosen."

Clause 125 (a)

"If any of the instances specified in Article 124 (b) of this Constitution occur and both the office of the President and the Vice President become vacant at the same time, a Presidential election shall be held within sixty days of both offices becoming vacant and appointments shall be made to both offices."

In major democracies of the world such as the UK, Germany, France, Italy and India, it is quite common to see mid-term elections for the post of head of government. USA is a notable exception to this practice, with Vice President's taking over when the Presidency falls vacant. The US practice however comes at a cost. Someone can become President without ever facing a national election (even as a running mate). This is not just theory. In real life Vice President Gerald Ford became the 38^th President of the United States when Richard Nixon resigned in 1974. Earlier in 1973 he had become Vice President when Spiro Agnew (who was Nixon's running mate) resigned. Thus Ford never faced an election either as presidential candidate or running mate. The way the current Constitution of the Maldives is written, a similar incident could occur.

Since the Maldives has held presidential swearing ceremonies on November 11^th once in 5 years since 1968, one could be forgiven if one mistook that as the spirit of the Constitution. However it had nothing to do with any spirit. It was just coincidence. If any of the incumbents had resigned or died in office, a fresh election would have been held within 60 days of the event and the new president would have gone for a full 5-year term beginning from the new date, thus upsetting the November 11 routine.

What then is the spirit of the Constitution? Is it to permanently set the timings of Presidential and Majlis elections to October and February of the following year respectively? Is this the ideal timing? Given that timing, would the newly elected President be in a stronger position to influence the Majlis elections coming just 4 months later? Would this affect the separation of powers? These are some questions one must consider.