Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Is the PA-DRP agreement genuine?



Wathan Edhey Gothah Coalition has revealed to the media a document they say is an agreement between President Gayoom's DRP and his brother Abdulla Yamin's PA, detailing their plans to share power if Gayoom wins the election on 28th October. The 'leaked' agreement raises several questions: First, is it genuine? And if so, what's the significance?



Authenticity



At a joint news conference held to announce the coalition between DRP and PA at Dharubaaruge on 22 September, DRP Spokesman Ibrahim Shafiu referred to an 'agreement.' When asked whether the cooperation between the two parties was conditional on including PA ministers in the cabinet, Shafiu said in Dhivehi, "the two leaders will continue to give the details. Here we have a basic agreement. What I want to say is that it cannot be ruled out. And if it happens DRP will welcome it. That's because PA includes senior leaders who brought DRP into being in its formative stages. It will be an honor if one of them sits in a seat of our government." Two significant points may be inferred from Shaifu's statement:



  1. On 22 September there was a written agreement between the two parties. (Written because people normally don't use the word agreement when speaking in Dhivehi unless there was a written document.)

  2. The agreement at that stage did not include details of sharing cabinet seats, details of which would continue to be given by the two leaders. (The use of the continuous tense suggests an ongoing negotiation process.)

The document revealed to the media did not bear signatures. This does not prove it is fake. But it does prove one thing: Even if it is genuine it is merely a draft. This would again appear to point towards an ongoing negotiation process. Thus (assuming the document is genuine) there could have been later drafts and a possible signed final agreement. One thing is certain: What is in front of the media is certainly not the signed final agreement. At best it is a genuine draft.



The date on the revealed document is 1 September 2008, which is 3 weeks before the Dharubaaruge news conference. If Shafiu was telling the truth on 22 September that no agreement was still reached, what was the reason for this prolonged delay? Negotiation failure? If that is the case, could this be the initial starting proposal submitted by PA, which was ultimately rejected by DRP? (All this is supposing the draft is authentic).



What really is the document revealed by the Wathan Edhey Coalition? While there are many possibilities, the following 4 stand out:



  1. A draft leaked by an opposition sympathizer in either the DRP or PA camp.

  2. A fake document produced by the opposition to discredit DRP.

  3. A draft leaked by DRP, the motive being to scuttle negotiations that are not going its way.

  4. A draft leaked by PA (No plausible motive visible at present).

Significance


If genuine, the agreement will allow Abdulla Yamin to control the economic sectors of Maldives, with his PA controlling 25 percent of Gayoom's cabinet. Yamin will head a super ministry –economic and tourism development –and have veto power over financial decisions.



Should the public be worried?


According to Dr. Jameel of the Watthan Edhey Coalition, the agreement violates the Constitution. He says it delegates some of the powers of the president and the cabinet to Yamin and a 6-member committee.


Deputy Media Manager of Maumoon 2008 campaign Ali Waheed has said the 'leaked' document was not genuine. However he also pointed out that there was nothing wrong with forging a coalition agreement among political parties.

30 comments:

Anonymous said...

In this tug-of-war between the two brothers,Thasmeen cannot be the umpire. I suspect Kutti is the guy acing as the go-between. Thasmeen! better plan your escape before it's too late.

Stable thinking process said...

Scare tactics work during pre elections.Osama bin laden's video got all Americans behind Bush and elected him for a second term

Anonymous said...

Nice autopsy, Dr Waheed. One thing is certain. There is an agreement (written). I have my doubts about the non existence of a signed agreement. The leaked draft could well be taken out of a computer belonging to one of the parties ( DRP or PA). That explains why the signatures are missing. There are opposition loyalists working in DRP campaign and DRP/PA loyalists working with the opposition. I think the people of Maldives are a bit over smart. They don't want to hear the truth if it comes from an opponent.

Anonymous said...

what that agreement will bring is a G******* dynasty in Maldivian for the next 100 years.

Yaamyn said...

As much as I'd like to get Maumoon out, I see no stability in a rag tag coalition of players from across the political spectrum - A far right Adhaalath coexisting with a left of center Hassan Saeed and right of center Anni and socialist Ibra?

This I gotta see!

Anonymous said...

The article is interesting...some missing links noteworthy.

1.Do we think PA or DRP is crazy to leave such confidential articles lying in 'someones' computer? Yameen is definitely known for his brains.
2.Did we think of all the people Dr.Jameel will come up with something genuine?
3.Its amidst prime time: some campaign strategy Dr.Hassan Saeed team thought smart moves. If you go through politics in malaysia u wud notice similar stunts they play. Good learning from malaysia Dr. Hassan Saeed following?
4.Clearly Dr. Hassan Saeeds OPEN SOCIETY had problems with Yameen. By all means the OPEN SOCIETY doesnt want to see Yameen carrying a cabinet portfolio?
5.Is this stunt meant to gain sympathy votes for opposition and develop hatred for Maumoon among those who dislike Yamee?

I dont really see any point in such an agreement.

Anonymous said...

what is this all about a deal or agreement? This is exactly what "wathan edaygothan" has done.are`nt they making deals to share their portions of portfolios once they grab the power.who would believe in those people who are under the shade of wathan edegothan are sincere even to each other? I can only qoute a verse from Quran to describe these bunch of wathan edegothan which very truely describes their attitude towards eacher." They fight not against you even together, except in fortified townships, or from behind walls. Their enmity among themselves is very great. You would think they are united, but their hearts are diveded.That is because they are a people who understand not".

Anonymous said...

One thing is quite clear. If there does exist such and agreement between PA and DRP it will not be for the benefit of the common Maldivians. It will only benefit Maumoon and his family.

Anonymous said...

The so called 'agreement' between PA and DRP is nothing beyond an agreement by two political parties cooperating for the betterment of the Maldives. We have no fear for the agreement as both Gayoom and Yamin are capable of leading the Maldives better than Watanedhey Gothah, so The Maldives will be in better hands if Wathan edhey goiy becomes the DRP_PA way. By making an agreement to power share does not in any way violates the constitution or laws of the state. May be Dr Jameel is worried because he is sure that Gayoom will be successful in the upcoming second round. If this happens the three doctors (Hassan, Shaheed and Jameel) will have no patients. Ha ha!

Anonymous said...

to Anonymous at 7.25.
Please tell this verse from Quran.

'" They fight not against you even together, except in fortified townships, or from behind walls. Their enmity among themselves is very great. You would think they are united, but their hearts are divided.That is because they are a people who understand not".

Even if not from Quran, the statement is a masterpiece which accurately describe Anni, Qasim, Jabir, Monaza, Husen rasheed, Dr. Shaheed, Hassan Ibra...

Better call them the 'Alliance of Hypocrites'

Anonymous said...

Notice the way Dr. Jameel, speaks and throws his arms and the way he express anger.

His body language is certainly no the most elegant

We can overlook his no-so sophisticated side but serving as a former justice minister, at least he should show some legal substance.

How can he say that an agreement between two political entities is against constitution. If so, shouldn't he be submitting the case to court.

Dear Jameel, at least don't be so desparate.

Maumoon said...

I think the basic issue should not be whether this is authentic or not.. but what the implications of that are...

Anonymous said...

Whats unconstitutional is overriding authorities and powers given to the president under the constitution to another person in that agreement.

Also the six member committee wielding powers over the cabinet. I dont think i read about that committee in the constitution, did you?

Also use your common sense. Giving all the economic policy powers and authority to 2 or 3 peoples hands? The authority over all public companies? The authority to appoint the head of all public companies?

Thats an agreement of benefit to the people? Why dont we jst nationalize all private firms and give them over to yameen instead of stoppin halfway!? Appoint him Supreme Economic Commander!?

And sayin the decision to remove Adhil from his post WASNT political? Do we maldivians look stupid and idiotic to you all high and mighty Doctor Fathin??

Maldives Communist Party a.k.a DRP

Anonymous said...

I do not understand a political campaign has so much time and energy to talk about something that doesn’t even help their cause. Dr. Jameel has made such a revelation and spent precious time talking about an e-mail which at first he couldn’t have obtained legally. When Doctors Jameel and Shaheed held a sudden news briefing to reveal the relationship with Mori Caribbean and DRP I thought this is worth taking a break from work and watching. But that to me was utter rubbish and regretted for wasting my time listening to them. Now I am thinking if Dr. Jameel has someone like Mori Caribbean or James McGrath telling him how to spend precious campaign time and money, he wouldn’t have talked about these things.

Dr. (detective rather) Jameel has brought an issue that only highlights his immaturity in politics. What is even worse in DRP/PA case, he tried to point out that it was against the constitution giving us hints that the coalition he belongs to is the same. Doing all this on paid air-time and important party rallies only tells a thinking man, that the coalition has run out of ammunition against their political opponent.

One thing I learned from my footballing days is, in every match we lost, the last 15 minutes of the match we were always frustrated and complained throughout. When nothing goes our way, we start committing fouls and try to cheat the officials and the crowd while the winning side keeps smiling and at times laughing at us.

This is exactly what we see in the Maldives political arena these days. Zaki contradicts himself in news conferences. The soft spoken Dr Waheed we knew is not so soft spoken anymore. Those opposition sympathizers in the government agencies are risking their jobs and coming out hoping for some kind of impact. Anti government bloggers are decorating their pages with bloody dead humans in an attempt to remind people of how this whole political drama series started and the others are preparing their readers for a scenario in which they lose this election. The activist-turned-journalists are using news conferences to give messages to the citizens instead of asking questions. The activists are ambushing leader of their opponent team and often preventing his audience listening to what he has to say. The political leaders are visibly nervous, frustrated and sweating on stages whilst the Jagaha opening ceremonies in islands are poorly attended and the attendees’ body language speaks of their hopelessness. The religious segments finally turned to the Almighty for a miracle. Desperate times call for desperate measures, they say.

… and the ‘ailing dictator’ whose ‘days are numbered’ and ‘hated by every Maldivian’ seem full of confidence and smiles more regularly than he has ever done and at times laughs at his opponents. His followers are celebrating as if they have already won.

Hilath said...

It doesn't make sense that Maumoon and Yameen need a 'written agreement' to share power. Which constitution and court would recognise the 'legality' of such a document if one party breaches the terms of the 'agreement' and the other party becomes disgruntled? The only outcome in such a case would be that their Maumoon's and Yameen's coalition with each other will collapse. You don't sign 'agreements' to share power of government and resources of a country!

Anonymous said...

I definitely beleive there is more to this draft than what DRP is willing to accept. It sure can be the main reason why suddenly Yamin decided to go along DRP. The proof is his appointment to Minister of Tourism. His remaining conditiond will become reality once Maumoon is re elected. - Lucky-

Anonymous said...

The verse that I have quoted is from surah 59,Al-Hashr verse no.14.

Anonymous said...

From the first day onwards, PA is saying to public that they will work with a party which endorses their economic policy. So no secrets there. And from the day DRP+PA coalition is announced and Yamin is brought to cabinet, people know Yamin has convinced/manipulated Gayyoom to get very powerful. Although two brothers, this is all political.

So Maldivians voted knowing all this in first round, and they know all this without that "leaked agreement".

So When i come to think of it, there is nothing DRP+PA coalition would lose due to this document going public. It would have minimal impact on undecided voters too.So it is a fruitless thing 3 doctors did.

Im fact, this maybe a mastermind stunt played by DRP+PA camp. They let know the "three doctor camp" know of a draft and thus allowed it to get "leaked" knowing that the impatient doctors will soon tell to public making it a sensational news. And since DRP+PA camp is not goign to lose any substantial amount of votes due to this, they are in an advantage to gain votes..
That is there are people who believes Yamin is a very capable leader and knows how to correct the ecomomy (especially after the Majlis budget debates). Hence, these people will vote for Maumoon. And the idea of a bit relaxed Maumoon and Thasmeen, Yaamin, Kutti, Shahid and a young team running Maldives will be appealing to many.

Anonymous said...

Maumoon is like a gadget that re invents it self as per him. He is still Maumoon i believe. A reform he could not contemplate in last 30 years would not be materialized ever. Even if he is in power for next 100 years. What we have to know is that No human being can re invent his moral wholeness or integrity.his mindset, nature. If he was a reformist, someone who care about this should have been coming for over thirtee years. Not in last decade when ironically opposition came in to picture. He can not say time has changed and its time to implement my reform and actaul democracy here. its like 2nd generation and 3rd generation iPods.

Anonymous said...

Dear Dr Waheed,
I think your writings are extraordinary. Good job! I follow your blog.
Like wise i follow MDP and their intthihad. But this is something i do not agree that MDP has taken this one a little too far with this. Dr Jameel based his entire speech on this document the night of 20th at artificial beach. I mean the thing does not have a signature or nor proof at all and this is something very basic to check before you present it to a public that is confused now who is correct and who is wrong. I do not want pple to think MDP is in the same level as DRP in anti campagning. Okay this is is a concern of all Citizens that PA & DRR's agreement, if its genuine or not.
MDP and DRP needs to stop anti campaignes. I want political parties to take it to more positive energy and ideas of future to improve our life. Not pussy talk about a part of a video where Anni explains how we can stop Drugs in Maldives with a very open mind OR a document that may be fake or genuine.
We have to be more contructive in our approach to win, be it elections or a race.

Anonymous said...

I agree with Hilaths comment.
If Maumoon goes agains the agreement after the election, is there a court PA can take Mumoon to and say * hey Mr. Judge, Maumoon didnt give me the 30% of the government ? Is Yameen stupid not to understand the validtuy of such an agreement?

The whole thing looks like a game palyed by a smart guy who knows how stupid Jameel is and some of us are. Ask yourself Jameel, who got the benifit from this? DRP or MDP?

Shakewellbeforeuse

Anonymous said...

According to DRP the agreement is fake.So why not they publish the genuine documents after all democracy is to be transparent. and to those people who says DRP is not that foolish to leave such an important document in a personal computer i would say that DRP and Maumoon is not worried. the tyrants will not fear any one. for instance have a look at the situation at hand now. DRP and PA is pushing to impeach Auditor Genreal for auditing Presidents office, STO , Toursim etc... They flying in the face of public. Go for an impeachment in this critical time is not realevant in political aspects. but they are doing what ever they want regardless of the interest of the nation. My dear friends when those facts come to light we only read and enjoy nothing will change... God bless all of us

Anonymous said...

The whole agreement issue shown how stupid the leaders of MDP are.

There two ways to look inoto this.

1- Hasan Saeed used poor Jameel to go public with this knowing the out come.As a result DRP gets to show the people how stupd the leaders of MDP are.

2- Anni comes up with this idea and asks Jameel to go public with this. This case clearly shows how stupid Anni is.Either way Jmeel is to be seen as very stupid guy or as a tool used by Hasan Saeed to reduce the support for MDP.

Why am I saying stupid?

Because This agreement issue only helps to weaken MDP. Inteligent people shuld know the out come of simple things like this.

shakewellbeforeuse

Anonymous said...

As far as I understand (correct me if Im wrong) If Anni forms a coalition Government, it will be completely against the Presidential system which overwhelming majority of maldives voted for. This will be a hybrid Model (Semi presidential system), Parliament should reject this Government if its formed with members of coalition because it will be unconstitutional.

Anonymous said...

To anonymous (7:56 pm),

Have you read the Constitution? Which is the Article of the Constitution that says that the government must not include members of a ‘coalition’, or other political parties?
Go to information ministry and buy a copy of the Constitution. When you read you will notice that the words ‘parties’ and ‘coalitions’ do not come into the picture when it comes to appointing ministers or even vice presidents. Constitution gives full leeway to the President to appoint anyone as minister as long as he/she fulfils the qualifications set out in Article 130 of the Constitution. It does not include party membership. If tomorrow DRP wins Maumoon can appoint Yaameen of PA as minister for Tourism and Economic Development. Or appoint to the post Champaa Afeef who is not in any party. That is the beauty of the presidential system.

Comment: Before repeating ‘His Master’s Voice’ faithfully sometimes it is wise to verify facts.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 12:49

Sir, this is what bothers me, I have stated what i beleive (Isnt that my right?) and I have said correct me if Im wrong. I never said Im right, but its my right to express what I beleive? If we Maldivians dont know how to accept that, then what freedom or democracy are we talking about?

I said If a coalition govt. is formed then its against the spirit of Presidential system, you cant cant call it a presidential system, but a hybrid model, thats not what our constitution states. I know there is no harm in appointing individuals (from other parties) William Cohen, President Clintons defense Secretary was a Republican, but he was appointed not under a framework of a coalition.

If MDP or DRP fors a government under a framework of a coalition Governement we cant call it a Presidential system, thats what Im talking about. If its nota Presidential system then its unconstitutional.

Anonymous said...

To anonymous (12.49 am) and anonymous (1:45 am),

The debate you guys have started leads to an interesting area of Constitutional Law: unwritten conventions and practices that complement the written provisions.

Take the example of the US. The elaborate procedures leading to next month’s presidential election –the primaries, party caucuses etc –are not even mentioned in the Constitution. But they are as much part of the US presidential system as the written Constitution.

Our democracy is in its infancy. We are groping in the dark to find the right ingredients for our presidential system. Till these are found and accepted over the years, it is premature to make judgments on what is right and what is wrong.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 3:59

Lets take the US political sytem out of the equation, although we call it a democracy, the popular vote does not even count, it just a handful of electorates that elect their Govt. (If someone deny this then he is denying a fact}

Agree, that we are at an infant stage, and needs to fine tune our constitution. BUT, what Im stating here is that its completely against the spirit of our current constitution to form a Govt under a framework of a coalition. be it MDP or DRP, whoever forms such a Govt is violating the constitution.

Yaamyn said...

To the anonymous a few comments above mine who thinks coalitions are against presidential governments.

If I'm not mistaken, Anni is the sole candidate for the coalition. The coalition can be viewed as an endorsement by various parties for the candidate.

Hillary and Obama and Biden all fought battle. But it now the Clintons rally for Obama against the republicans - there's no contradiction there.

Anonymous said...

Yaamyn,

If Im not wrong (again correct me if Im wrong) Obama, Clinton, Biden fought a battle in the same party primaries, If Anni, Hassan Saeed, Gasim & Ibura has fought a battle under same party primaries and lost and then endorsed Anni then I rest my case. (I did not know that)

I was under the impression that Hassan Saeed, Gasim, Ibura fought bitter battle against Anni in a Presidential race, with each other having a world difference policies and manifesto, when people of maldives rejected them they formed a coalition with Anni. with Anni promising to share the Govt with them. (Gayyoom and yameen with same agreement)I do see some contradicition compare with Obama, Hillary and Biden.