By Mohamed Naahii (Engineering student in Sri Lanka)
If all the opposition unites there is a very high chance Gayoom will not win. Here are the main reasons why I believe Anni (Mohamed Nasheed) would get more support and win.
- It is now expected that the opposition would garner more and more support because Anni has said all the capable opposition leaders such as Hassan Saeed and Gasim Ibrahim would be in his government. This would definitely boost his support because there are people who support Gasim, Hassan and Ibra, who would surely give a thumbs up for Anni as they would like to see their candidates in top posts of the government, eventually benefitting the whole country. We could now imagine a dream team consisting of former Finance Minister Gasim, Dr. Hassan Saeed, Dr. Shaheed, Mr. Ibrahim Ismail, Dr. Musthafa Luthfee, Dr Jameel and other capable opposition leaders if Anni wins. These leaders have high popularity amongst the people.
- We can even see Anni's proposal for an MDP led alliance also has come true. Though many have forgotten what happened to the National Unity Alliance, Anni has been campaigning with the label 'an MDP led Alliance' since MDP Primary elections. This would be a factor that would gain him more support. Remember that Maldivians are known to always look at the words of politicians and see how true those words become in the end. This would be a clear indication for them to realize that Anni is living up to his words.
- Also Dr. Hassan himself has said he would personally work to gain support for Anni. We shouldn't forget that he has been a very strong influence in the election (obviously winning 17% in the election proves this). Because of this his loyal support and backing to Anni plus Anni's idea of including Dr. Hassan's team in his government is a very tactical formula, which would definitely bring a positive impact on the run off, especially in Addu atoll. Though there maybe people who would change their minds, their numbers would be less than those who would follow Dr. Hassan to support Anni.
- There are a so many people who want a change, so many people who want to see another leader. There are plenty of Maldivian people who want this regime to end. They would definitely opt for Anni as he is the only choice and their belief in change would even be strengthened because of the alliance of opposition candidates. Like Waheed has said in his blog post, there will be people who would change their minds because of the uniting of the leaders.
- Also ongoing rumors would definitely have an impact on the way of thinking of the people. Technically these rumors – such as two vice presidents of DRP joining opposition – basically would be more advantageous to the opposition than Gayoom. Unless Gayoom clearly proves to the people these rumors are false, it would be an advantage for the opposition.
Due to these very important 5 factors that came to my mind after personally doing a small analysis, here is my bet. A bundle of sticks would be stronger than one individual stick. What I am trying to say is that if all the opposition unites at this stage, Anni will definitely win. If not, just forget it. Gayoom is setting a historical record of 35 years of rule in the Maldive Islands.
[Note: This article was submitted by Mohamed Naahii, an Engineering student in Sri Lanka, and so the contents are his intellectual property. This blog will consider for publication articles that are constructive, avoid obscene language and do not needlessly launch personal attacks on individuals or communities. Authors of controversial articles are requested to identify themselves or at least open a line of communication for readers to use.]