Friday, October 10, 2008

Did Gayoom gain sympathy votes for threats on him?



During the final weeks of the campaign President Gayoom's campaign faced threats in some islands. Apart from minor violence directed at his running mate, there were no physical attacks. Did the threats trigger a sympathy wave for him among the undecided voters in those islands? To answer this question let us compare his vote share in those islands against his national vote share (40.6%).


Maavaah, Laamu Atoll: Protesters prevented unloading of Gayoom's car and his trip was called off.



  • In the election Gayoom polled 53% from Maavah. This was 12.4 percentage points above his national average.

Hithadhoo, Laamu Atoll: A week before the election some senior members of DRP were forced off the island.



  • Gayoom polled 48.5% from Hithadhoo. This was 7.9 percentage points above national average.

Kudahuvadhoo, Dhaalu Atoll: DRP Vice President Ahmed Shyam was forced to leave the island and Gayoom's trip to the island was called off.



  • From Kudahuvadhoo Gayoom scored 43.2%. This was 2.6 percentage points above Gayoom's average across the nation.

Thulhaadhoo, Baa Atoll: Gayoom's running mate Thasmeen Ali was forced to leave the island.



  • Gayoom scored 37.95% from Thulhaadhoo. This was 3.7 percentage points below his national average.

Huvarafushi, Haa Atoll: President Gayoom was physically attacked in the island at the beginning of the year. Though this occurred several months back, Huvarafushi was included in the analysis because the islanders are certain to retain vivid memories of the incident.



  • From Huvarafushi Gayoom scored 40.4%. This was nearly equal to his national average.

Kulhuduffushi, Haa Dhaalu Atoll: Some resident of the island launched a virulent physical attack on Ahmed Abdullah, Minister for Environment at the time. This incident also occurred several months back, but was included because of its serious nature.



  • Gayoom scored 41.4% from Kulhudhuffushi. This was 0.8 percentage points above his national average.

Comments:


In 4 of the islands Gayoom scored above his national average in the election. Only in one island did he score significantly below the national average. In evaluating the significance of these findings one must keep in mind that at the time of each incident the perpetrators probably thought they had an overwhelming majority in the island. If they were right about this, that majority eroded quite drastically following the incidents.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

Qayyoom got what Maldivians believe, we over speculate, those of us who read and analyze through internet and other medias does not have any idea of the true feelings of 50 or 60 year old in a remote island holhuashi. They believe 800 years of Islamic teaching and their livelihood is not secure when they chose un vetted young person or a tycoon for their leader. Many don't want take that risk, that's what we see in this election, however they don't like the 30 years of Maumoon regime they still don't want take a risk to handover the presidency to young person.

Adhaalathu oriyaan kuraa site said...

According to some Christian atheists those who voted for Maumoonu are the 'retarred islanders' who know nothing about politics.But what about these atheists ? Do they know anything about politics and governing.The 'retarded islanders' know better about their situation than these atheists who live in overseas by using money earned from Maldives and spend their entire life hitting the keyboard.

Anonymous said...

Those who are in need of a change are very dubious,and i have every reason to believe that most of those "reformers" do have direct or indirect contact with westerners who are desperately trying to change the maldivian society into a multi religious cultured society. It is firmly belived that so long as maumoon is in power to achieve this goal is almost imposibble so they want to remove him at any cost to clear the ground for this very purpose.as far as eradicating or at least minimising the corruption and mismanegment is concerned which has turned to be the main problem of maumoon`s thirty yrs of reign is quranteed by the promulgation of the new constitution and by the democratic instituions that have been established and began to functionnig accordingly. one such example is the recent auditor general`s high
profile reports on governmet`s budgetry spending. so, this is very clear even to those who are opposing him. therefor in order to eradicate corrupiton and menipulation of power by qayyom is not an issue now as permenant institutions are started functioning right now.so the only issue remains is to clear the ground for the very pourpose of starting this so called reform agenda in foriegn countries like UK and srilanka with a strong backing of christian missonaries.this is why people are still supporting qayoom although he didn`t fulfill all what is rquired to satisfy some of the factions of islamic scholars like the adaalath party.one may ask wheter anybody can identify who is islamic and who is not by appearence? well this is another topic that should be dealt in its right context therefore i would not attept to go into the details at this moment.but what ican say for sure is that, to introduce a policy that supports multi religious society will surely have dangerous repercussions on our maldivians society, at least, at this moment of time.

Anonymous said...

I agree that making Maldives multi-religious at this time could have "dangerous repercussions" "at this time" exactly because the current government and educational institutes failed to instill in every Maldivian a touch of tolerance.
I have been to some countries in South Asia and educated people there don't have problems with the beliefs or religions of other people. I mean, they don't go poking around in other people's personal lives. I agree that Maldives is a small country but that doesn't give us any right to poke into our neighbor's affairs and we should be educated and enlightened in that way.
But for all these years, for purely political reasons, the Maumoon government has been harping on "one religion, one language" uniformity and conformity. For what purposes I don't know. It's just a matter of "perception" that there is a widespread mainstream thinking that Maldivians are not ready for a secular multi-religious society.
It's simply not true. I know many Maldivians who are not Muslims but they are afraid to say so because they are also made to believe that there is a mainstream view that Maldives have to be kept 100 percent Islamic.
And I know many Muslim Maldivians who know that their relatives, friends and neighbors are not Muslims, but for the same reason above, they are afraid to voice support for the non-Muslims although in personal and private affairs they are quite supportive of each other.
I think it's time that most non-Muslim Maldivians organise themselves and start making noise. That is the only way to get rid of this mainstream thinking that Maldives is not ready for a secular multi-religious society.
It's time we stand and fight against the bigotry and misguided convictions of parties like Adaalath and the IDP. Because if we don't, we will have to remain in hiding forever.
If Maldives was the secular multireligious society that it should have been from a long time ago, let's just say 800 years, I am sure today it will be a very cosmopolitan, diverse, tolerant and dynamic society, making much human progress, embracing rational science, and not superstitious religious stuff.

Anonymous said...

Here's whats needed to be done to ensure an opposition win in the second round. The following steps need to be taken.

1. Change the MDP Coalition to include Hassan Saeed, Gasim and Ibra.

2. Dr. Waheed resigns as the VP candidate due to "health" reasons.

3. Hassan Saeed is nominated as the new VP candidate of the coalition.

4. The coalition conveys the message that Anni would remain a figurehead President as the person who brought democracy n freedom and he would task VP Hassan Saeed with the daily running of the goverment.

Get this strategy across to the MDP Coalition top group!!

Anonymous said...

In mu opinion theres just two words to explain the reason why Maumoon got 40%..."Stockholm Syndrome"

Google it.

Anonymous said...

A person who tries to change Islam is worse than a non Muslim.

Mohamed Naahii said...

Couldn't it have been a very tactical political game played in order to confuse the opposition ? Your Data seems to give me an idea like that and look at all those co-incidences. Every Island he was thrown out scored well for him and not just only one island it was but many. It seems strange but this was something that many haven't noticed...

Anonymous said...

Are you worried because Gayoom may still will be the Leader Maldivians wanted? With the final results we still see Maumoon very much in the apex of this country. And with the results now we are confident that neither Dr Hassan nor Gasim will have a chance to become president until 2013. Yet we are not sure that they will be able to secure a place.

Anonymous said...

We do understand the selfish motives of the present generation politicians.Dr.Hasssan announces he wud join MDP unconditionally just to show the people that he's selfless.Big NO.He knows very well that Qayyoom will win in the next round and is preparing for the next term.
We know whos Anni and whos Dr.Waheed.They have entirely opposite views on the matters related to us.So how does one expect them to work together & run this country. They dont have any priciples,confirmed by their dilly dallying in the matters we have faced.One takes a U turn after labelling MDP as a terrorist outfit.The other, may be both want to fool us and make this nation a secular one.
What all these speaks is whatever it takes even if u have to skin Maldivians u guys wont mind as long as u can sit in that chair.
U guys dont have any love for this nation.
Its not only Qayyom whos destroyed this nation.You guys will have to equally share the responsibility.
Imagine if Republican party had spend on training manpower for this nation with the money they gave as bribes for the masses to win their hearts.I am sure we wud have had enough trained teachers,nurses, the two sectors where we employ most foreigners resulting in erosion of our values in the new generation.Man we are loosing independence bcos of this so called democracy.We need genuine people like Gandhi and Mandela.Not Male Mandelas or Male Muqabes.
People have got a decent education from the hard earned money given by "retarded islanders" and chose to live abroad and then come back one day and rule us.Imagine if all of u have come back n served the nation we wont have become slaves to foreigners.Imagine if u had fought Qayyoom like Mandela before.We wudnt have had to wait for long.Excuse me!Did I say retarded islanders????
Dont just think if u had stayed abroad for few yrs u are wiser and u have become superior than a "shit head islander". They r not selfish they r more wiser and they have more values & Vision for the nation

Anonymous said...

This is the worst pseudo-analysis.

1. why is the national average used as a benchmark for comparison?

2. "In evaluating the significance of these findings one must keep in mind that at the time of each incident the perpetrators probably thought they had an overwhelming majority in the island."?

Anonymous said...

Interesting piece to read....this is taken from a christian missionary website.

"Please pray

Pray that Article 50 will be reinserted into the Iraqi Provincial Election law so that non-Muslim minorities, including Christians, will be guaranteed representation in the Regional Councils. Pray that God will raise up honest and just candidates for the Regional Councils, who will bring stability and justice to the war-torn country of Iraq. Pray for Iraq’s Christian community, for courage and fortitude in the face of insecurity and violence.


Pray for Maldivian Christians, especially converts from Islam, who will now lose their citizenship and with it their citizen rights. Pray that the new constitution will not deter any Maldivian from accepting and following Christ. Pray for a change of heart among Maldivians and the Maldives government, that they will be able to accept that being a citizen of the Maldives need not entail being a Muslim as well.


Pray for the presidential election in the Maldives tomorrow (8 October), for the election of a candidate who will increase the religious freedom and civil rights of non-Muslims and relax the tight government control of religious practice.


WHO IS THIS CANDIDATE WHO WILL INCREASE THE RELIGIOUS FREEDOM OF THIS MALDIVES?

Anonymous said...

We are not afraid of Maumoon - but his motives.

Anonymous said...

Oh would you people stop putting Relegion in between every sentence. God help these ignorants!! This is politics we are talking about, NOT RELIGION. these two has to be separated. If you have faith in Islam, why you are so worried about what someone else say. You do not have guts to be who you want to be. You people just need some one to point your finger and say those are bad guys. What that makes you, good! NO you just know how to hide. Lie to your self.

Anonymous said...

at anon 11.37. religion will never be out of the picture so long as human beings casts the votes, short of complete eradication of religion from the nation. please do not tell us, the voters, what to think. we simply want the facts. we will decide who to vote for based on the facts. and the question raised by anon(6:47) is a valid fact seeking question.