Monday, October 6, 2008

Are there really 208,252 voters?

Election Commission announced on 4th October that there were 208,252 eligible voters in the Maldives. Unfortunately this figure is not in harmony with Maldives Census figures.

Census 2006 taken in March 2006 shows that there were only 181,606 Maldivians above 18 years of age. (Reference: Census Table PP6) In the two hand half years since then this number would have increased, of course, because some youngsters would have attained 18 years during this period. But fortunately we know almost exactly how many would have attained 18 since then. We know this because only those who were 17 years, 16 years and half of those who were 15 on Census date could have attained 18 years by now. As can be easily seen clearly from Census Table PP6, these figures are 7737 people of 17 years, 8428 people of 16 years and 4080 (half of those aged 15). These three figures add up to a total of 20,245 people. Adding this number to the 181,606 people above 18 at the time of Census we get a total of 201,851 people who had attained 18.

However in the two and half years since the Census some of these people would have died. This number can be estimated from the annual number of deaths occurring in the age group over 15 years of age. This figure for one year (2006) is 916. (Reference: Table 3.10, Statistical Yearbook 2007). So for two and half years the number of deaths in people aged 15 and above would be 2290. Deducting these deaths from the total figure of 201,851 who had attained 18, we get the surviving number of people who are currently above 18. This figure is 199,561 people. Thus Census figures (the most reliable record of population in the Maldives) clearly indicate there should be no more than 199,561 eligible voters in the Maldives.

Thus the figure announced by Election Commission is 8169 more than the figure indicated by Census figures. This is an increase of 4.35%.

Is this discrepancy negligible and frivolous? Perhaps not. In a 6-way contest the 4.35% could be more than the difference between the winner and the runner up.


Mohamed Naahii said...

If those statistics are true then this is a problem. Can there be an increment of number of 18yr olds by 4.35% within 2years of time ? This information could be submitted to the elections commision for further revise. I believe that is the best way we can clear this doubt, regardless of how much the 4.35% would be an impact on the final result. There maybe a miscalculation in the census data or from the elections commision itself.

Anonymous said...

the reality is far more anyone looking?

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

The reality is far scarier.

Adhi fas aharu - after 30 years?

Aa usminthakakai - from a big pit? We need to get out of this pit first.

If only the oppossite is more united.
Even Anni says DRP will come 2nd.His comment might make DRP get more votes.

Wonder what his motives could be in saying DRP is 2nd.

I think they all should get together atleast in thoughts, if not physically ,and write a big letter signed by all, to Maumoon, copied to all Maldivians, requesting him to step aside.Today is the say to do it.All aprty leaders can sign in it.LEtting DRP know they are united in some way atleast.