Saturday, October 11, 2008

The Math – a few scenarios for swinging the votes!



Now that the first round of the election is over and everyone is gearing towards the run-off, just how big is it a task for the ruling party to swing the votes to attain a majority? I have made some assumptions on the possible scenarios on swinging the votes.


The first round showed that over 59% of the voters voted for a change in leadership. So in order for DRP to attain a majority in the run-off they will have to persuade at least over 20% of voters from each of the 3 candidates who have formed an alliance with MDP. Since IDP has bailed out of the coalition, I assume that at the most 50% will swing to DRP (may be unlikely but for argument sake). Also assuming that none of the DRP and MDP voter will swing any way, I present the following analysis (see table above).

Based on the above analysis with a 10%, 15% and 20% swing voters from each of the 3 aligning candidates give the following results (IDP swing is kept constant at 50% for above explained reasons for all calculations)


10% Swing
DRP: 78,774 votes (45%)
MDP Coalition: 97,793 votes (55%)

15% Swing
DRP: 81,678 votes (46%)
MDP Coalition: 94,889 votes (54%)

20% Swing
DRP: 84,581 votes (48%)
MDP Coalition: 91,986 votes (52%)

Question is, is it an attainable task to get such a drastic swing in the remaining couple of weeks? It is up to the voters to decide! And of course the final assumption is that the voter turn out should also remain equally high as the first round of the elections.




This analysis was presented by Ahmed Afaal, for the readers of this blog. He has his own blog (No politics) at http://afaal.blogspot.com/. As always I welcome contributions from the readers of this blog, which I will publish for the benefit of other readers and to keep this blog rich in content.


17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sorry for my ignorance Afaal, but can you explain.

In order for Anni to get 92000 votes he has to secure 48000 votes in addtion to his own 44000. Gasim and Hassan combined got 56000, this means 86% of this 56000 has to swing for MDP.

The above is assuming non of the 72000 Maumoon voters and 44000 Anni voters will swing.

Please explain?

Anonymous said...

This means that even if 20% of the voters who voted for Dr. Saeed and 20% of voters who voted for Gasim and 20% of voters who voted for Ibra and 50% of those who voted for Umar swings to vote for Maumoon in the run off, and the rest of the people vote for the Anni coalition, the majority vote of 52% will still be with Anni.

So it will be very hard to swing the vote to DRP side if the voter turn out remains high as last time. At least that's what the stats say.

Hope this explains a bit more of what the Math is!

Cheers!
Afaal

Anonymous said...

Are you sure; at least 80% of the voters who voted for Dr. Saeed and 80% of voters who voted for Gasim and 80% of voters who voted for Ibra and 50% of those who voted for Umar swings to vote for Anni?

Mohamed Naahii said...

First of all, I believe this is a very beautiful Mathematical Analysis. From this analysis itself we can say that this would be a very tough task for both Anni and specially Gayyoom. The question is how many votes can gayyoom snatch from those who failed to reach the round 2 and how many would follow their candidates and back anni ? So far it seems opposition winning.

One thing i noticed from the analysis is the assumption made with regard to Umar naseer's IDP. Though you have assumed mathematically 50% as swing vote from IDP my percentage is 30%(relying to past happenings). The main reason is that Umar had severly critisized maumoon at so many various occations and rallies. Remember their hunger strike and civil disobedience held because of the Massage parlours in Male ? I bet 90% of those who voted for umar was for his attitude towards the drugs and protecting islam. And many of these would have decided on this saying that current regime has failed to take neccesary actions against drugs in the country and failing to protect islam effectively. So i think the constant of swinging votes from IDP to DRP should be lower than 50% to probably something around 35 to 30% which is more relevant to reality. What do you think MR Waheed ?

Other than that i find the whole analysis very realistic rather than saying it Mathematical. Yet we must know these are just figures we assume and anything can happen. We have to wait and see but my bet is that at this current scenario (opposition forging alliance and backing one candidate) it would be Anni who would win the run off.

Thanks & Cheers

Anonymous said...

afaal, praise you.. we haven't lost our societies intellectuals to dictatorship. WE HAVE HOPE..

Anonymous said...

Dear Abdullah Waheed (former medical doctor and now Deputy Minister Home Affairs):
Why do you have this blog? Is it an attempt to cast an image of yourself as a "neutral" person and hedge your future?
I demand you write a five paragraph post on this.

[Editors note: Please note the information line at top of blog: “… Personal issues are not entertained…” For your information however, I have been a columnist since 1988, writing in Haveeru, Miadhu, Adduvas, Haama Daily, Huvas, Fiyes, and several websites. Writing career highlights include an award for Dhivehi writing from the National Center for Linguistics and Historical Research, Presidential award for writing the most socially relevant book in 2004, and being the Editor in Chief of Miadhu Daily in 2005-06.]

Anonymous said...

Afaal, you maybe working for ADK Nashid, but I expected you to give an unbiased view.

80% of those who voted for Gasim will vote for Anni?
80% of those who voted for Hassan Saeed will vote for Anni
50% of those who voted for Ibura will vote for Anni.

Proove it.

Why should those 80.80.50% vote for Anni, just becasue their leader said so? are we in a soccer match or deciding our future.

OK, let gasim and Hassan reveal to thier supporters what Anni will offer to them in return of their support? will Anni incoporate Gasim and Saeed's manifesto in to his? How many ministerial portfolios will they get. If Anni has offered a fair deal, then certainly there is some reason for the supporters to vote.

Afaal, Gasim and Saeed's supporters need to know these things before they go and vote for Anni (who is someone they dont beleive in)

OR you think that we are out to play a game here, that Gasim and Saeed to make a mockery out of politics?

Anonymous said...

Voter turn out will be the deciding factor. If same number or more of people come out to vote Anni will win. If less no chance for change.

Farooq Mohamed Hassan said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Farooq Mohamed Hassan said...

To the comments posted at 2:29PM and 5:20AM.
If you cannot understand the word "IF" used by Mr. Afaal, how can one make you understand such intellectual work?

My friend, Mr Afaal has used the word "IF" because of the uncertainties involved. If Mr. Afaal was sure of all the variables involved, he would not have used a statistical hypothesis to predict an outcome of a future event. Instead, he would have said, "20 percent would swing, and 80 percent would turn out to vote".

There is nothing to prove here. If you cannot digest this much, better not show you ignorance.

Cheers! Afaal.

Anonymous said...

Hey, guys. Do u think the 25% voters who voted for Anni in 1st round will vote for him in the run-off, too? NO! They r very disappointed. 5% of them won’t come out from their home on the day of run-off, and another 5-10% is going to vote Maumoon!

Ahmed Afaal said...

Dear Anonymous 5:20pm

I totally agree that people should know what they are voting for. What I have tried to do is just give some scenarios. This may well be wrong I agree.

The reason why I did it was that no one attempts really to do a mathematical probability of these things. Usually in most parts of the world there are only a very little percentage of voters who swing just like that irrespective of the conditions. And besides, these are just mathematical assumptions.

And just for your information, I do not belong to any party or support any one them either. I just follow my instincts. May be I am just one of those independent people who needs to be persuaded enough to swing my vote.

For those who looked positively on this post, thanks for your views. I am not trying to create any biases here, just mathematics based on some realistic assumptions.

Cheers
Afaal

Anonymous said...

Let me tell you my friends, people can show mathametically how Anni can win this election but.....

Anni cannot outdo Maumoon in just putting the old corrupt ex cronies of this regime behind him and simply expressing outrage on Maumoon past 30 year track record.

Anonymous said...

This election has turned sour. it is no longer an election.

I am voting for Maumoon, because opposition could not get their act together.

If they have not been able to do so, they would not do it in future Government.

Lets wait for a good opposition in 2013.

Anonymous said...

Many things in this universe is mathematically possible or hypothetical with many assumptions.

but the reality is far from many hypothetical scenarios. Affal's analogy and arguments are very likely hypothetical possibilities.

But the field does not look widely open for the scale, many of us measure our different calculations in this election.

As last person here said unless Anni change his policies 360 degree its very unlikely him to be next president.

I am an independent, not align with any party, the very reason I dont like MDP is because of arrogance they show in its leadership and also known corrupt failed politicians rally behind Anni.

Anonymous said...

Dear friends,

I am NOT saying FOR anni...but i am saying AGAINST maumoon...cox this is the only way we can do it. Anni is not Mr. Perfect, in fact, perhaps far from it. but consider these facts:

maumoon had his family protecting him, came at an early age in maldives wen people were uneducated and blind, and he had the long term calculated plan to STAY here. he had by the time we opened our eyes, gathered his own henchmen in government, family controling all the government money, and in terms of power control, he is indeed a mastermind

but anni doesnt have all that. he may have wrong ideas, but people have woken up and they cant be played like maumoon played with peoples lives, and 5 years isnt like 30 years to carry out evil plans. fact: ANNI CAN BE BROUGHT DOWN IF WE DONT LIKE HIM, but not g*****.

maumoon will definitly make this last 5 years hell for all of us people, mark my words...do u know why maldivians are so scared to make a new step and see wat lies ahead? bcox maumoon has scared u all, everyone says "wat if its worse?" see how afraid people are? because u all have directly or indirectly suffered from his injustice..

so it is time to fight..not to find the easy way out. it may not be the "perfect anne dhivehi raaje", but do u people still want THIS mass of destruction to continue?? and if u dont know the pain of the people who have been hurt by maummoon for his selfish needs, if u if u havent met the poor insignificant people who cudnt stand up against him aftr he took away wat is theirs for his greediness, if u cant see how much he is holding back from wat YOU break ur back and earn, and if u cant hear the cries of people asking help and calling for compensation for the cruel treatment.,..its time u opened ur eyes people...do some research look around. and i dont mean the people who have alhamdhulillah not felt and seen any of this, but peopl, who can tell u skin crawling stories, and even at personal levels...is he still going to stay 5 years of enjoyment, UNPUNISHED just becox u dont have the strenth to see further???

and anni cant "bring" christianity to this country. it already exists. so does athiesm, and even if anni is an atheist, that doesnt affect us. the protector of ur religion is urself. the person who has to care abt his/her religious morals and values is not the president, but urself.

And as for giving practical independence to other religions such as the famous "anni building temples" how wud it be possible in a place where majority are muslims? If maldivians are gonna let just ONE person build temples, then we need to re-think our levels as muslims. it cannot be possible in 5 years.

Its sad to think that people can believe that someone else-be it a dictator or anyone can 'change our religion'. Our faith is something that rests with us and us alone. Its not like Maldives is not exposed to other religions or cultures. Globalisation and technological advancements today shows us a lot. Does this change our faith?? I am appalled by how some people are so narrow-minded. How does anyone have any right to call someone an atheist or how does a photo become evidence to someone's religious stance?? This is utterly STUPID! It appears that some people of the Maldives still do not understand their power as citizens of the country. They still depend on the government and its head on everything-even to uphold their faith! This is sad, truely it is.. I truely believe that work needs to be done get Maldivians to understand how democracy works. With the people not knowing their rights and their responsibilities in a democracy, how can we call this whole deal going on right now a democracy? Democracy's majority rule in electing its leader is only a part of the people's job. As Lord Acton's says "power intoxicates, absolute power corrupts". So its us the people who need to unite and bring down someone intoxicated by power. Stop falling for his utterly STUPID propaganda and ideas! Learn to know ur responsibilities and ur rights!

I am not asking u to vote anni, I am begging u t, vote againt maumoon...have faith people..stop escaping, stop closing ur eyes... this is not debating on how good or bad anni is...i admit there is no good choice...

and as for anni in perspective. yes, he has a bad record, he has a bad reputed family. but that isnt going to influence US just for 5 years, specially wen in the new system he wont be the one taking all the decisions. maldivians wont let it happen, not again. but if g***** comes, he still has his protection around him and he wil continue to do wat he wants...

Here are some of the things we have to think about??????

Masaaj parlour huddha kuree kaaku?

Ralaai drug aamu vee kihinakun?

Mini skirt feshanaka hedhee kaaku?

School thakuge buruga uniform uvaalee kaaku?

Gaumee syllabahun quran ehkiba kuree kaau?

Kaku tho miraaje ah Drugs Introduce kohdhini

Kaaku ge veri kameh ga tho migaumuga Faahish amalu thah hadhufahanalhaa dhiyaee

Kaku tho miraaje ah Budhu ethere kuran hudhadhi neee

Kaku tho miraajey ge Fasaaga Temple Flower Jahaafa sign kuri.... Bla
Temple flower ry kiyaafa halheyh lavaairu.. ei aharemen nah aa ehcheh nooney...
Maumoon vani maakuri dhivehin nah Temple flower introduce kohdheefa...

Kaakah tho Bodu Faadhiri ehge Medayyeh libuni,.. Anni ehaavarah Nasaara dheen fathuran ulheyiru keehve dho Elagabu nulibuni

Kaaku ge verikameh ga tho Miraajey ga dhyni massala thah ufedhen feshee

Kaaku ge veri kameh ga tho mi raajjey ga Poor and Rich ge mihaa thafaathu bodu vegen dhiyaee

Kaaku tho miraajjey ah libey aamdhani madhu baeh ge ahmachah libey gothah hedhi

btw we are not voting Anni because we support him.. Cox we are VOTING FOR A CHANGE. to bring this Dictatorship down

[Editor's note: One insulting word was obliterated with **.]

Anonymous said...

I guess we Maldivians are not looking for waht Maumoon did for the past 30 years, we dont care how many of his brothers and Sisters are there in the Goverment, Also we are not interested to know if Anni would not bring his family into the cabinet or his father would be the chairmen of the cricket control board...we are simply not interested. we have heard enough of this bickering and hatred. We want somone who can give us a better tomorrow. thats all we care, we are not interested in "Aneh dhivehi Raajje" we are not interested in "AA usminthakeh"

We need someone who talks about issues, not personal bickering, wasting time in taking people to courts or calling for the arrest of Ministers...no SIMPLY NOT...JUST TALK ABOUT THE ISSUES. If Maumoon's 30 year legacy is all what we can talk about then God help us.