Whose agenda is it anyway?

“Nobody can give you freedom. Nobody can give you equality or justice or anything. If you're a man, you take it.” –Malcolm X (1925 - 1965)

"The reform agenda is mine," President Gayoom pronounced to his rivals on TVM's Riyasee Suvaalu program. Technically speaking, if he was merely referring to the "Reform Agenda" he announced on 9 June 2004, he would be right. But if he was referring to the whole reform movement that is in motion since 2003, that's a different story altogether.

Probably even Gayoom himself wouldn't go so far as to claim the entire reform movement as his own. Had that been the case ironically there would have been no need to announce the 'Reform Agenda' in 2004, as the agenda would then have started and progressed incrementally since 1978. So obviously there were others besides him who triggered the movement that culminated in the ratification of the Constitution on August 7. Who were they and what were their roles?

First wave of reform

With fresh faces elected to the Majlis in 1989, including Dr. Waheed, Gogo Latheef and Modi, new ideas took the Majlis by storm. Press freedom reached new heights simultaneously with the launching of three political magazines. The new found freedom was short lived, however. With the help of the infamous Bimbi Force, the movement was crushed and reformist MPs were evicted from the Majlis.

Mohamed Shafeeg (Editor) and Mohamed Nasheed (Anni) of 'Sangu' were charged and sentenced. So were the writers of Hukuru: Mohamed Saeed Moosa Wajdee, Mohamed Jaleel, Ahmed Waheed Ali, and Ahmed Fayaz Hassan.

Second wave

The second wave of reform started in the late 90s during the debates on Vision 2020. These debates marked a watershed in the reform process because it was the first time participants could openly criticize government policies in an official setting. This wave reached its climax in 2001 when a group of 43 intellectuals and professionals submitted a proposal for registering a political party. The group included names like Rado Zahir, Mujthaba, Qasim, Anni, Suood, Hathifushi Shakir, Hassan Afeef, Naushad Waheed, Alia Ali Abdulla, Ilyas Hussein, Maizan Hassan Maniku, Ahmed Muiz, Husna Razee, Abdullah Zameer, Zahiya Zareer, Mahmood Razi and Ali Faiz among others. The movement reached a dead end when the government on the advice of Attorney General Munavvar decided that the Constitution was not compatible with political parties.

Some significant events of the period included:

• The arrest and sentencing of Male MP Mohammed Nasheed on dubious charges;
  


• The launching of the internet magazine Sandhaanu and the ultimate arrest of Nazaki Zaki and Ibrahim Lutfee who ran the magazine.
  

Third Wave

Without any doubt the third and current wave of reform was heralded by the death of Evan Naseem in Maafushi prison in September 2003 and the shootings that followed. The massive outcry and the spontaneous demonstrations on the streets of Male changed the Maldives forever. Unlike its predecessors, the third wave of reform could not be stopped because of reasons including the following:

• The role of Mohammed Nasheed (Anni)'s charismatic leadership and unwavering commitment in mobilizing the young generation as agents of change;
  


• Successful formation of a political party, MDP, by a group of reformists spearheaded by Anni and Gogo Latheef;
  


• The effectiveness of Ahmed Shafeeq (Sappe)'s Dhivehi-Observer in communicating anti Gayoom messages to a broad Maldivian audience, thereby denting his media created image;
  


• Ibrahim Hussein Zaki, Latheef and Anni's success in bringing the reform movement to the attention of the international community, and the resulting pressure from that quarter;
  


• President Gayoom's launching of the 9^th June Reform Agenda, which put pressure on the government to stick to its timeline;
  


• The New Maldives movement, which brought reforms from within the government including Hassan Saeed's landmark ruling on political parties and accession to major international human rights conventions;
  


• Male Member Ibrahim Ismail's role in incorporating principles of liberal democracy into the draft Constitution;
  


• The effectiveness of opposition MPs including Afeef, Ibra, Reeko Moosa, Monaza Naeem, Suood, Ali Waheed, Sanco Shareef and others in articulating reforms on the Majlis floor;
  


• Qasim Ibrahim's leadership in steering the work of the Special Majlis to a fruitful conclusion;
  


• The willingness of the DRP majority in the Majlis to pass the reforms;
  


• Information Minister Nasheed's role in introducing a degree of media freedom;
  


• And above all, the resolve of ordinary Maldivians who within just five short years have become the most politically mature people in South Asia.
  

Author's note: In any list of honors, certain names inadvertently get left out. So let me apologize to them in advance. Let me also acknowledge the large number of people who wrote personal letters to President Gayoom urging him to launch reforms long before people poured out onto the streets and set the juggernaut rolling, letters that would haunt him as constant reminders of what could have been.

Can the Anti Corruption Commission clean the Augean stables?

The Maldives' proposed new Anti Corruption Commission couldn't have come at a better time. The Corruption Perceptions Index 2008 released by Transparency International (TI) has just placed Maldives at the 115^th place among 180 countries, 31 places below its 84^th position last year. Can the Anti Corruption Commission turn the tide around?

The TI report comes as no surprise to ordinary Maldivians for whom it is a fact of life to see multistory buildings burgeoning around them –buildings belonging to government officials in strategic positions and senior executives of state owned companies. Such ostentation of wealth beyond all legitimate sources of income is glaringly visible to everyone except those responsible to stop it. While company after company from FPID to MNSL, and Air Maldives to Stelco and STO has been embroiled in scandal after scandal, no senior official of any of these companies have ever been held accountable. On the contrary they have got promotion after promotion ending in ministerial or diplomatic posts.

The new Anti Corruption Commission will replace the existing Anti Corruption Board, a totally discredited body. It is better known for harassing island katheebs who do not toe the line rather than any meaningful effort to stop corruption in high places.

Perhaps the Anti Corruption Commission will fare a little better, being part of an unprecedented wave of democratic reforms. A new Constitution was ratified on 7 August paving the way for multi-party elections. A Supreme Court, an Election Commission, and a Judicial Service Commission have been established.

Last week, the People's Majlis had a stormy debate on the Anti Corruption Commission Bill proposed by the Government. Members criticized the worsening corruption situation in the public sector. They expressed dismay about the lack of political will and intention on the part of the government to fight corruption. They pointed out that the government has swept several large scale corruption cases under the carpet.

The Majlis stressed the need to make the new Anti Corruption Commission powerful and independent enough to deal with the deteriorating situation. The proposed law will also give power to the Commission to investigate complaints involving members of People's Majlis (MPs) and NGOs.

Although there was some satisfaction about the new law, some MPs and ordinary citizens are still skeptical about the independence and effectiveness of the new Anti Corruption Commission in a background of increasing incidents of corruption involving high officials and politicians. The same concern was voiced regarding the Election Commission, Judicial Service Commission, and Supreme Court which they suspect have been manipulated for the benefit of the government and other political parties.

There are cases of corruption worth hundreds of millions of dollars involving high government officials and powerful politicians, which have been dropped without any action. The question is will the next president have the courage and political will to give the Anti Corruption Commission a free hand to clean the Augean stables and improve the bad image of the country as one of the most corrupt countries? The next few months will tell us.

Is Hassan’s unity government the way forward?

Presidential candidate Dr. Hassan Saeed has said he plans to establish a national unity government if he wins the election scheduled for 8^th October. The only independent candidate in the fray, Dr. Hassan made this momentous proposal during the official launching of his presidential manifesto at Artificial Beach Wednesday night. What are the pros and cons of this extraordinary overture?

The timing of this proposal is significant, coming as it were at a time when many people believe Hassan is in the top two in the electoral race. It signifies a shift in thinking from the election to its aftermath.

Hassan believes that a government controlled by one party is not the best option for the country at this point in time, when the country faces massive challenges that require the cooperation of one and all. Hassan has a point here. Take the drug problem for example. It is an open secret that political parties cutting across the entire spectrum have connections with drug dealers and addicts, which is the main reason why the problem has defied all solutions. This scenario is likely to continue even after the elections as long as the bitter political divisions in the society continue.

Whoever wins the election, be it Anni or Hassan or even Gayoom, the margin of victory is likely to be small. In such a situation, any government that is limited to the winning party would appear fragile and will be the target of destabilizing attacks from the opposition, particularly with the Majlis election coming up. Hassan's proposal is aimed to avoid the resulting chaos.

Dr. Hassan's proposal has come up for immediate criticism from his main rival Anni of Maldivian Democratic Party. Anni believes that a multiparty system is the only system that can effectively govern the country and bring the reforms expected by the people. He believes that a unity government will disintegrate into a dictatorship.

Examples of unity governments are rare in the world. Israel is the only established democracy that has had unity governments in the post World War II period. In that country the experiment has been successful. In Lebanon too, unity governments have been successful in keeping a modicum of stability in the bitterly divided country. In third world countries, most experiments at forming national unity governments have either failed or misfired as in Iraq.

Before one decides to discard the multiparty environment in favor of a unity government, there is an inescapable fact one must consider: All the freedoms that we enjoy today are the direct result of the party system.

Anni’s housing policy looks more realistic

Candidate Nasheed's housing policy aims to foster home ownership. To achieve this he promises easy access to building materials, soft loans and an affordable real estate market. Unlike others in the fray, Anni has resisted the temptation to make populist promises like building Male-like cities and 8000 flats, which on deeper analysis appear to be little more than castles in the air. Further, these dream projects have the potential of turning nightmare, as explained below. Thus Anni's approach to housing appears to be more down to earth and sustainable.

It goes without saying that policies must be based on the situation on the ground. For example, what is the real demand for flats in the Maldives? Based on the number of people who applied for Hulhumale flats in 2006 and the Census (2006) data on the number of people living in rented places, the demand for flats has been estimated to be about 9000. (Details given in Appendix 1 below).

How many flats are currently under construction in Male? Based on Municipality data on the number and size of buildings authorized for construction in Male within the last 5 years, the equivalent of about 14,000 flats are probably under construction. (Details given in appendix 2). This figure itself is higher than the estimated demand of 9000. If one adds the promised 6000 - 8000 flats, then the supply would appear to be double the demand. What effect will this have on the real estate market?

As given in Appendix 2, more than 3000 buildings are currently authorized for construction in Male alone. Most of the owners of these buildings would have taken commercial loans to finance them. They would depend on a certain minimum rent to be able to repay the loans. If 6000 – 8000 flats are artificially injected into the market, will the rents remain at sustainable levels to repay the loans?

In reviewing campaign promises one must also consider their economic feasibility, keeping in mind that the total government revenue per year is expected to be about $800 million. Against this, the proposal to build 7000 to 8000 flats will cost about $600 million at current rates. Developing an additional Hulhumale like city is expected to cost about $ 500 million.

In summary, the housing policies of presidential candidates take two different approaches. One is to inject thousands of flats into the market within just 5 years. Theoretically this could be a quick fix solution. But is it economically feasible? What effect will it have on individual enterprise and homeownership? Further, this approach is merely old wine in a new bottle. What makes one think it will work this time?

The alternative approach favored by Anni is to help individuals build their own homes. This approach will be slower, but probably more realistic and sustainable.

Appendix 1:
Demand for flats

The demand for flats has not been researched formally. But we can get a fairly good idea from the number of people who applied for plots of land in Hulhumale in 2006. These plots were open to all citizens anywhere in the Maldives above 21 years who did not have plots in their names. Thus the number of people who applied (11,889) can be taken as the number of people who wished to own a house. The actual demand may be considerably lower because all those who wish to have a house may not be able to afford even subsidized rents. Take the case of those who bought row houses in Hulhumale. As many as 24% of those who got the row houses gave them up because they could not afford the rent. Taking this into consideration, perhaps only about 9000 (out of the 11,889) can be considered to be the real demand for flats/homes. This figure is also in harmony with the Census 2006 figures, which show that only 6335 households live in rented accommodation (out of the total 46,000 households in the Maldives).

Appendix 2:
Estimate of flats currently under construction in Male

The promised 7000 to 8000 flats don't come in a vacuum. There is already a brisk real estate market in Male. According to Municipality data, during the last 5 years they authorized the construction of 3020 buildings in Male with a total residential area of 938,962 square meters. This is the equivalent of 14,445 flats (of size 65 sq m). Of these 928 buildings were completed during the 5-year period adding 129,336 square meters of residential space to Male. This is the equivalent of 1990 flats.

[Note: Data used in this article are sourced from (1) Party manifestos, (2) Statistical Yearbook 2007 and (3) Press briefings of Hulhumale Development Corporation in 2006.]

Acknowledgment: The aerial photo of Male is from the blog Maldives in Still Mode (http://mashafeeg.blogspot.com/)

Tourism employees strike: Why their voice must be heard

Are the authorities taking the planned tourism employees strike seriously? After all, if the strike goes ahead on October 5^th, it could cripple the industry and result in losses running into millions of dollars.

According to Tourism Employees Association of Maldives (TEAM) they are demanding the rights of employees guaranteed in the recently passed Employment Law. Currently Article 34 of the Law excludes them.
TEAM says they have already given 100 days notice to the government and are still willing to call off the strike if measures are taken to amend the law. Failing that TEAM says 70% of resort employees will stop work come October 5^th.

The percentage of foreign employees joining the strike may be lower than that figure, TEAM says. This is because they have no job security and can be deported by employers at will. This revelation speaks volumes about the working conditions in what resort owners would like to call a world class industry.

Maldives has a total of 110,231 employees (Statistical Yearbook 2007). Out of them the largest category in formal employment comprises the roughly 40,000 government employees. The second largest category is that of tourism employees (totaling 12,090). A large percent of those in other categories are either self employed or have informal arrangements with their bosses. Realistically speaking therefore, the Law cannot be applied to them. So the very purpose of the law comes into question if tourism workers are excluded from its purview.

What do the 12,000 odd tourism employees get from the industry? Assuming an average monthly salary of Rf 4000, the total annual wage bill would be Rf 580 million. Compared to this the GDP from tourism at market prices is Rf 3.7 billion (calculated from the figure of Rf 2.789 billion given as tourism GDP at basic price –Yearbook 2007). So the employees' share of the GDP from tourism is 16%.

Exclusion from the Employment Law deprives resort workers of their basic rights guaranteed under the law: minimum wage, overtime, maximum working hours, job security, leave, etc. So why were they excluded? This may have something to do with the presence of a large number of Members in the Majlis who have direct interests in the tourist industry. The original bill presented to the Majlis did not exclude tourism workers, but at some stage in the Majlis debate the relevant clause appeared in the draft and was passed.

Maldives Association of Tourism Industry (MATI) is quite effective in protecting resort owners. Who will protect the resort employees?

MTDC exposed

"The world is full of obvious things which nobody by any chance ever observes" –Sherlock Holmes

One should have smelt a rat the moment MTDC announced a dividend payment of Rf 90 per 100-rufiya share for year 2007. Where on earth would one find a company that returns 90% of the investment back to the investors within one year –that too before serving a single customer? It's fishy to say the least. And now Auditor General Naeem has pulled the lid off the mystery, exposing the dark secrets and ugly skeletons in the MTDC closet.

MTDC was formed in April 2006 to allow the ordinary man to participate in the tourist industry –a lofty aim no doubt, but too high to reach. The graph above tells it all. For year 2007 an ordinary man who bought shares up to the maximum legally allowed limit of 2645 would have received a dividend of about Rf 0.24 million –peanuts compared to Villa group's dividend of Rf 27.8 million and Champa group's Rf 5.2 million. These figures are based on the minimum number of shares controlled by Villa (309,207) and Champa (57,261) as estimated by the audit report, and the actual dividend paid per share –90 rufiyaa.

The audit report says MTDC acquired 10 islands at an average rent of $ 2738 per bed per annum, which is almost 10 times lower than the market value and 3 times lower than even the controlled rent fixed by Tourism Ministry ($6908). The report estimates that because of this low rent the exchequer loses a minimum of $ 11.8 million each year. And that's not all. MTDC has subleased the islands at rents considerably higher than $ 6908. This means the exchequer is losing far more than the $ 11.8 million estimated above. Where did all this money go? Part of the answer is seen in the graph. Part of the answer is the 70 million rufiyaa due to other private investors and the 135 million rufiyaa due to the government for its shares. But for a very important part one will need to investigate the subleases and who got them.

Now the question is, why did all this happen while there was a board of directors with 4 government directors in it to protect the rights of the public? The audit report explains how:

• Though the company was established for the public, two entities have controlled the company from day one by acquiring far more shares than the allowed maximum;
  


• Villa Group controls the board of directors of the company;
  


• All major decisions were taken for the company by a temporary board;
  


• The company was politicized at all stages in its formation and development;
  


• Conflict of interest because Tourism Ministry is both supervisor and regulator of the company;
  


• Managing Director is abroad on study leave and other people run the company;
  


• Company has dealings with firms where members of the board have interests;
  


• Family connections between a member of the board and a senior executive of the company;
  


• Inappropriate decision to pay a dividend of Rf 90 per 100 rufiyaa share, which is over and above company profits and reserves;
  


• Five persons own shares more than the limit of 2645;
  


• Exceeding the Herethere development budget of $ 30 million and spending $ 52 million;
  


• Herethere contracts were awarded without bidding;
  


• Over payment to Herethere sub contractors;
  


• 
  
  The government has only paid one third of what it has to pay as paid up capital;
  
  
  

  
  

  
  

  Based on the above findings the Auditor General has recommended dissolution of the company. He has also recommended prosecution of the people responsible for the malpractices.
  

"Where large sums of money are concerned, it is advisable to trust nobody." –Agatha Christie

PA comes home to roost

Abdulla Yameen's return to the DRP fold could very well be the non-event par excellence of Election 2008. It is partly because no one believed Yameen left his brother anyway. It is also partly because Yameen does not appear any longer to be the political persona that he was on 11 April 2007 when he resigned from the cabinet.

Ironically, in an op-ed article in Miadhu Daily following Yameen's resignation in 2007 I had written that considering the situation as it existed then, he had an excellent chance to take a shot at the presidency, IF he started the campaign then. He didn't, and the rest is history, as they say.

As reported by Haveeru Daily, PA's decision to join forces with DRP is the result of 'convergence of ideas' and the inclusion of PA manifesto in that of DRP. "Under this agreement PA will give political support and assistance to promote the DRP presidential candidate and running mate in the 2008 Presidential Election," PA Vice President Moosa Rameez was quoted in Haveeru.

Yameen's return to his brother's side appears less a tactical move and more a zugzwang –the dilemma in chess where one is doomed to make a move. Unlike in mathematical equations, in politics 1+1 does not always add up to 2. It could even result in ½. Only time will tell the result of the DRP + PA equation.

What does Yameen bring to PA? His most obvious gift will be PA's half dozen odd MPs, who still have 6 months before their expiry date. And yes, some of them may even get elected. In return for this 'gift' DRP might have to pay a heavy price –renewed charges of nepotism.

Yameen is likely to get a couple of cabinet berths following this deal. But the looming question is, what did he gain from the one-year sabbatical? It is widely believed he left DRP because of differences of opinion over Gasim Ibrahim's position within the party. Gasim is of course no longer in the party, but others have stepped into the vacuum.

It's a nice gesture on the part of Yameen to come to the side of his aging brother. Probably this just about sums up the whole saga.

Is Anni’s DhiFM poll win significant?

Washington Times routinely adds the following warning notice to its web based opinion polls: "This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate." This just about sums up the validity of 'voodoo' opinion polls conducted through the net or SMS. Keeping this in mind, is there any significance to the opinion polls conducted during the last two weekends by DhiFM?

As the graph above shows, Anni led both the opinion polls with a wide margin. In fact from the first to the second poll Anni increased his share of votes from 3969 (40.7%) to 5344 (49.2%). This gain has come at the expense of the second and third candidates, Maumoon and Hassan Saeed. Maumoon's vote share dropped from 2362 (24.2%) to 2005 (18.5%); while Hassan Saeed's share dropped from 2341 (24%) to 2121 (19.5%). Interestingly, since Hassan's percentage drop was a bit smaller, he edged past Maumoon to the second position.

Among the remaining candidates Gasim (9.6%) and Umar (2.7%) had improved upon their past performance, while Ibra had slipped lower. (The percentages given here were calculated after deducting the votes polled by Dr. Waheed, Jaaney and Muiz, who are no longer presidential candidates. Thus these figures will differ slightly from the original DhiFM figures.)

All of us present in Male during the last two weekends know that there was a frenzy of SMS passing through Dhiraagu and Wataniya networks, frantically urging supporters to vote between 11 and 12 pm. Apparently many people who received the SMS simply ignored it. Otherwise the total should have been considerably higher.

The SMS poll certainly does not reflect the opinions of the 200,000 odd voters in the Maldives. But it does reflect something: the organizing capacities of the different political parties and the enthusiasm of their supporters. Will such organizing capacity and enthusiasm make a difference in bringing out voters to the polling stations on 8^th October? The answer seems fairly obvious.

The key to the weapons of 1978

"… at that time it may have been illegal; I have not become President yet; but I had weapons. And the 6 or so people I mentioned also had weapons…." –President Gayoom speaking to the People's Majlis on 6 May 1980.

Few issues have been so hotly debated as that of the 'weapons' Gayoom was alleged to have possessed on the eve of 11 November 1978, during his swearing ceremony. In 1980 President Gayoom made the above statement to the Majlis, according to a book published by National Center for Linguistic and Historical Research, 'Godhiraajage naakaamiyaabu baghaavaath".

Last week however, speaking on TVM's Siyaasath program, Gayoom said he never possessed any weapons and that in 1980 he was only referring to the key to the armory, rather than actual weapons.

Here is the translation of the relevant passage from Gayoom's 1980 speech to the Majlis:

"Whatever it is, since that conversation has taken place and since the head of the military was a different person and I was not aware of the arrangements in the military headquarters, God willing, I was very prepared. When I came here for swearing in, around 6 of my close associates had weapons. That is if anything happened we had intended to carry out then and that night what the people had decided…not to be intimidated by anyone's threats. Since the people have chosen me lawfully I wanted to be there, come what may. So, at that time it may have been illegal; I have not become President yet; but I had weapons. And the 6 or so people I mentioned also had weapons…."

And now here is the explanation Gayoom gave to Siyaasath program's Shakir:

Shakir: "Have you ever told a friend that you will have one [weapon] before you took the oath?"

Gayoom: "No. But there is something I said much later. In a speech at the parliament, I said when I took the presidency, weapons were under my supervision. That means – I will tell how it happened. I took the presidency on 10 November 1978 at midnight – at the beginning of 11 November. A day prior to this, a person at the ministry of public safety came and gave me the key to the weapons storage, saying the president ordered to give it to Maumoon. Since I had the key to the armory, I was in possession of the storage to use the weapons in a situation those had to be used. The key was handed to me. The minister of public safety is still alive today. If you question him he will tell you likewise. So that's what I said. In my hand, pocket, body, I never had weapons and have never used them."

In support of what Gayoom said on Siyaasath program, the President's Office has released two letters written by the former President's Office to the then Ministry of Public Safety in November 1978. Here are the translations:

Unofficial translation of President Office letter number 1-E/28/78/69 sent to Minister of Public Safety on 2 November 1978:

To the Minister,

After greetings I convey the following. The President has directed me to convey to you that starting from 10^th November, you are to do everything relating to the Ministry of Public Safety and institutions under it in consultation with Hon. Uz. Maumoon Abdul Gayoom and under his directions.

Please accept my respects,

(Signed) Mohammed Zahir, Private Secretary

Unofficial translation of President Office letter number 1-E/28/78/70 sent to Minister of Public Safety on 7 November 1978:

After greetings I convey the following. Reference is given to this Office letter number 1-E/28/78/69. In that letter you were told that starting from 10^th November, you are to do everything relating to the Ministry of Public Safety and institutions under it in consultation with Hon. Uz. Maumoon Abdul Gayoom and under his directions. In addition to this, the President has asked me to tell you to carry out his [Gayoom's] instructions.

Please accept my respects,

(Signed) Mohammed Zahir, Private Secretary

Update from Jazeera Daily (21 September):
“Abdul Hannan Haleem [Minister of Public Safety before Gayoom took over] who is currently in Mecca on Umra informed Jazeera today by telephone that the armory key was with him and that he handed over the key to Maumoon on the night of November 11 in a visit to Muleeaage after Maumoon had taken the oath of presidency and gone there. He also said he handed over the keys personally to Maumoon along with a pistol he had with him.”

Should the Supreme Court hire expatriate legal consultants?

Despite an opposition walkout, the nomination of judges to the Supreme Court was steamrolled through the Majlis on Thursday. Later the same day the apex court was established with Abdullah Saeed as its acting head. Why was the opposition less than enthusiastic about being onboard?

Opposition MDP had on 6 September issued a statement expressing concerns about lack of suitably qualified judges for the Supreme Court. The specific concern was the lack of constitutional expertise, particularly at a crucial juncture when the Court will often be required to interpret the Constitution. The amended Constitution is based on liberal democracy, a rather novel concept for serving judges in the Maldives, as it is not part of their training or experience. To bridge this gap, MDP had suggested appointing some expatriate legal experts to the Court. Two days later DRP rejected the proposal on nationalistic grounds.

Now that judges have been appointed to the Supreme Court, let's have a brief look at their CV to see if opposition fears were justified:

1. Justice Abdullah Saeed did his first degree in Islamic Sharia and Law. Subsequently he did his masters in Malta and is currently pursuing PhD studies in Maritime Law. He is licensed to practice law in the European Union.
   


2. Justice Ahmed Faiz Hussein has a degree in Islamic Sharia and Law, and has held the position of judge at the High Court.
   


3. Justice Abdullah Areef has a degree in Islmaic Sharia and Law, and has been the presiding judge at the Criminal Court for many years.
   


4. Justice Yousuf Hussein has a degree in Islmaic Sharia and Law from Madinah University, and has been the presiding judge at the Family Court.
   


5. Justice Mujuthaz Fahumy has a local certificate of training as judge, and has been the presiding judge at the Civil Court.
   

Apart from MDP and JP members of the Majlis, legal experts cutting across the political spectrum had also expressed their concerns when the candidates were announced. Even legal reform minister Mohammed Nasheed also expressed his disappointment that none of the candidates had any formal exposure to the common law. Husnu Suood had raised his concern with many Majlis members. Liberal Party leader Ibra expressed his disappointment saying, "We are talking about the people who will interpret the Constitution made for a liberal democracy with Maldives ready for the 21st century."

Now that the heat and dust of the politicized battle for the Supreme Court is over, it's perhaps time for the Justices themselves to take a long and hard look at themselves to see if they are up to the task entrusted to them. If not they must seriously consider hiring a team of legal experts from abroad to advise them. Let good sense prevail.

Election fever heating up in Huvarafushi

On approaching Huvarafushi the first thing one notices is the yellow painted walls of MDP office and the golden flag flying above in the island's azure sky. The election fever in Huvarafushi is not surprising. After all, it's the political heart of the north, in the same way Kulhudhuffushi is its commercial heart. Going back in time, the peoples of Huvarafushi and Kulhudhuffushi were the joint organizers of the historic Uthuru Arumaazu.

Going by external appearance –flags, colors, music, meetings –the MDP campaign is the strongest in the island. However, appearances can be deceptive. According to many people there is quite a brisk, albeit hidden, DRP campaign in the island. Jumhooree Party leader Qasim Ibrahim has family connections to the island through his wife, whose relatives are also active in the campaign as indicated by JP flags flying over their houses. Social Liberal Party has a relatively minor presence in the island. Despite their small numbers however, SLP contribution is significant, particularly in acting as a watchdog to prevent Civil Service members from campaigning.

Partly due to the high level of political awareness in Huvarafushi, most of the 2000 voters in the island are members of some party, though it is alleged that many of them 'joined' parties involuntarily when someone filled forms on their behalf, sometimes without their knowledge.

It is difficult to gauge how the people of Huvarafushi will vote on October 8^th. But many people believe the competition for the top spot will be between MDP and DRP. Current indications are that JP will be in a distant third position. This however could change dramatically when Qasim Ibrahim visits the island, most people say. Unlike in most other islands, Hassan Saeed's support in Huvarafushi appears small.

The people of Huvarafushi have a long list of grievances, which they expect the next president will solve for them. Here are a few of them as expressed by the people:

• The health center is ill equipped and ill staffed. People travel to Kulhudhuffhishi or Male for even minor health problems.
  


• The school is staffed with reject teachers from Male. Most of them lack teaching and class-control skills;
  


• The harbor, constructed some years back, has now become small and congested.
  


• Apart from some government jobs, there are no employment opportunities in the island. The only significant economic activity is fisheries, which itself is in decline and has become seasonal. Two Male-based companies operate fish processing facilities in the island.
  


• Unlike most high-population islands, the ground water in Huvarafushi is still relatively clean. However, most islanders believe the time has now come for laying a sewage system.
  


• The STELCO operated powerhouse is one service with which the people are happy.

Anni and Waheed: Are they the dream team?

Among the running mates announced so far, Anni's counterpart Dr. Mohammed Waheed Hassan is considered the best choice by commentators. The others, with the possible exception of Dr. Shaheed, have so far been liabilities. Unlike them, many people believe Waheed will boost Anni's winning chances.

Dr. Mohamed Waheed Hassan is the first Maldivian to obtain a PhD. In 1989 Waheed competed with Ilyas Ibrahim in the elections to the Majlis and won the Male seat with a higher majority. His popularity made Waheed a threat to the ruling classes, and soon he became a victim of the notorious Bimbi Force. He was compelled to resign his parliamentary seat and flee the Maldives.

After leaving the Maldives in the middle of 1992, Waheed has had a distinguished career in the international civil service, starting as the UNICEF head of education in Tanzania and winding up his career as Special Representative of the Secretary General.

On Wednesday MDP selected Waheed as Anni's running mate, a move that is considered very smart by most political analysts.

What Dr. Waheed brings to MDP:

• Waheed brings with him a wealth of government and international experience –experience that Anni lacks. Experts believe that Anni and Waheed complement each other's strengths and weakness and form a dream team;
• With a PhD from Stamford, Waheed is one of the most respected intellectuals in the country.
  

Waheed's weaknesses:

• He has been accused of running away from the Maldives when things don't go his way. Waheed however disagrees, saying he was forced to leave the Maldives under extreme pressure.
  
• He is considered a liberal, an image that may not go well with the conservative elements in the society.

Housing policies of 3 leading candidates

"Poorly planned urban neighborhoods are associated with petty crimes such as graffiti and vandalism", Patricia Brantingham writes in Harvard Internal Review. It's not just petty crime that happens in Male neighborhoods, but serious crimes like knifing and drug trafficking. Bad as this may be, crime is not the top problem for most Male citizens. It's housing shortage. Let us see what three leading candidates, Anni, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom and Hassan Saeed, offer them in their respective manifestos.

In reviewing these promises one must consider each candidate's understanding of the issue, what solutions he offers and how feasible they are. In considering economic feasibility one must keep in mind that the total revenue generated by the Government in 2008 is expected to be about $800 million. Against this, the proposal to build 7000 to 8000 flats will cost about $600 million at current rates. The bridge to Hulhumale is expected to cost at least $ 250 million. Developing an additional Hulhumale like city is expected to cost about $ 500 million. Considering such figures, an anonymous visitor to this blog left a comment saying, "some of the promises are so outrageous that a 10 year old kid will not believe them!"

Here are the salient features of the housing and urban development pledges of the three leading candidates:

How they see the Problem:

• Anni believes that the housing crisis is the result of the government's failed atoll development policies, which led to in-migration towards Male. Wasting $ 50 million on Hulhumale, the government has failed to find a solution to the congestion in Male Anni says. Due to lack of an effective policy or regulatory framework there is no access to an affordable real estate market.
  
• Hassan Saeed believes that the key issues are increasing rents and shortage of housing, which is aggravated by unfair regulations in the allotment of flats. The housing problem is accompanied by Lack of basic services, environmental vulnerability and division of the population.
  
• Gayoom believes that the housing problem is the result of population increase and in-migration to Male.
  
• All three candidates acknowledge that it is a serious issue that tsunami victims have not been provided housing even after 4 years.
  

Population consolidation

• Gayoom promises to build 7500 flats (1500 per year) in Hulhumale and build a bridge to connect it with Male. In the meanwhile Male will be re-developed and two alternative cities will be developed with flats and facilities similar to Hulhumale. Land reclamation will be undertaken in selected islands.
• Hassan Saeed promises to build 4 cities like Male, with the provision of 5000 – 8000 flats in those cities.
  
• Anni does not promise to build cities. Instead he will take long term measures to develop the atolls and provide housing, employment opportunities and other basic services, so that the atoll population will have no need to migrate to Male. A land use plan will be developed for each inhabited island.
  

Real estate business

• Gayoom promises to encourage the development of real estate business in the private sector, with long-term financing. He will strengthen/develop housing regulations.
  
• Hassan promises to stop making profits from essential services like housing. He will draft fair regulations on housing.
  
• Anni promises to facilitate the development of housing in the private sector by providing building material in the islands, facilitating loans, and developing regulations.
  

Tsunami housing

• Anni and Gayoom promise to compete tsunami housing in one year.
  
• Hassan Saeed promises to complete tsunami housing within a definite time
  

Social housing

• All three candidates promise long term loans and subsidized housing for the vulnerable groups.
  

Know your candidates (3): Maumoon Abdul Gayoom

When Maumoon Abdul Gayoom returned to the Maldives in 1971 after a 24-year absence abroad, he found in Male an "atmosphere of repression", his biography 'A Man for All Islands' says. He would not have known then that 37 years later on 7 August 2008 he would be the chosen man to ratify the historic Constitutional amendments that would finally annul the archaic laws that bred the repressive atmosphere.

With his grounding in theology, Gayoom soon earned the respect of the people as well as the wrath of the government, particularly with his famous remark equating alcohol consumption and its sale. When in 1978, President Ibrahim Nasir abruptly decided not to compete for a third term in office, Gayoom became a serious contender for the post. Helped by a serendipitous coincidence –two of his close relatives, Ilyas and Hameed, were Majlis Members –Gayoom triumphed.

Seeking a record (which will never be broken) seventh term, Gayoom brings with him long years of experience, years that started counting long before 2 out of 3 Maldivians living today were even born. Let us then examine his strengths and weaknesses.

Gayoom's Achievements so far:

• Became President in 1978 and got re-elected 5 times;
  


• Maintained political stability and a favorable investment climate in the Maldives;
  


• Earned an international reputation in the area of environmental protection;
  


• Earned a reputation as a religious scholar.
  

Strengths:

• Having been in power for 30 years;
  


• Having the opportunity to claim credit for the GDP growth of the past 3 decades;
  


• Being the most recognized face in the Maldives;
  


• Fits the mental image Maldivians have of an archetypical president;
  


• Being the subject of nostalgic attachment among the elderly;
  


• Having the advantage of the trappings of office and the loyalty of senior members in island administration;
  

Weaknesses:

• Having been in power for 30 years (note that this is also listed among strengths);
  


• Being ultimately answerable for the law and order situation and drugs as well as the housing problem;
  


• Desire among the youth for change;
  


• Advancing age;
  


• Vulnerability to charges of nepotism.
  

Highlights of the agenda:

Gayoom will:

• Not allow in the Maldives any religion other than Islam, nor will he allow extremism;
  


• Strengthen the foundations of democracy, promote political responsibility, protect human rights, and ensure equality before the law;
  


• Distribute the benefits of economic growth equitably, increase the earnings of individuals and families, improve the quality of life, reduce the cost of living and ensure fiscal responsibility;
  


• Make the community drug-free and safe, solve housing issues, expand social services, and make Maldivians a law abiding, low crime, supportive, friendly, and happy community;
  


• Expand health services, improve the quality of health services, provide emergency evacuation, train health professionals and introduce modern technology for providing health care;
  


• Expand educational opportunities, improve quality of education, increase training opportunities for the youth, train teachers, and get international recognition for the national university.

Know your candidates (2): Hassan Saeed

During recent history few people have dominated the affairs of the Maldivian government to the extent Dr. Hassan Saeed did during his brief stint as Attorney General –certainly not anyone with his humble background. When Hassan joined the cabinet in 2003, he was basically an island boy with no family connections and little experience in Maldivian politics. But within two years, he became the most powerful man in the cabinet, outsmarting both Kaamineege and Endherimaage camps, beating them at their own game.

Hassan resigned from the Cabinet rather abruptly in August 2007, and soon announced his intention to stand for the presidential elections. Thus he is one of the first to announce his candidacy and the first to release a comprehensive manifesto. Let us examine his strengths and weaknesses.

Hassan Saeed’s achievements so far:

• Became Attorney General in 2003 (he has since resigned from this post);


• Gave the landmark legal advice that led to the formation of political parties;


• Launched and implemented the Criminal Justice Action Plan;


• Became Vice President of DRP (he has since resigned from this post);


• Made a name for himself among the Maldivian people.
  
  Strengths:


• Educated in both Islamic and western systems, holding a PhD in law;


• Has charisma according to many, and fits the mental image most Maldivians have of the archetypical president;


• Has administrative and political acumen, the skills that enabled him to become the focal point of the government's reform agenda;


• Has energy and is action-oriented.
  
  Weaknesses:


• Played a dubious role when in government, particularly in the prosecution of opposition leaders;


• Introduced controversial practices such as sentencing in absentia;


• Has been prone to taking rash decisions.
  
  Highlights of the agenda:


• Establishing 4 tertiary hospitals across the archipelago and providing emergency medical evacuation by air and sea;


• Providing health insurance to all, giving special attention to socially and economically vulnerable groups;


• Taking strict legal action against drug traffickers;


• Improving locally available education by establishing international schools and universities and facilitating studies abroad through 500 full and 1000 partial scholarships each year;


• Promoting fish exports and protecting the exclusive economic zone of Maldives;


• Attracting foreign investment by promoting confidence in the Maldives;


• Promoting middle and small businesses, job creation and job training;


• Promoting good governance through, establishing island councils, reducing wasteful expenditure, upholding the law, electoral reforms, and press freedom;


• Providing basic services like water, sanitation, housing, electricity and transport by establishing 4 cities;


• Improving law and order through developing a professional police force and training the judiciary.

Know your candidates (1): Ibra

It may be a bit of exaggeration to compare Ibrahim Ismail (Ibra) to Dr. Ambedkar, the architect of the Indian Constitution. However, the parallels are there. Both men rose above severe personal obstacles to reach strategic positions where they could play dominating roles in the drafting of their respective national constitutions. Having completed his task as Chairman of the Constitutional Drafting Committee, Ibra is now standing for the Presidential Election slated for next month. What are his potential strengths and weaknesses?

Ibra's achievements so far:

• Winning the Male seat in the latest round of Special Majlis and People's Majlis elections;
  


• Winning MDP Presidential election (Ibra has resigned this post since);
  


• Winning a protracted legal battle against the Election Commission to register his Social Liberal Party.
  

Ibra's strengths:

• Considerable training and experience in the education sector;
  


• Impeccable record as a parliamentarian;
  


• Effective and proven leadership as Chair of the Special Majlis drafting committee;
  


• Well established reputation as a man of principles;
  


• Strength of character and the courage to take unwavering stands on major issues;
  


• Has a clear vision and a coherent plan to achieve it;
  

Weaknesses:

• Shortage of money and party infrastructure to run an effective campaign;
  


• Shortage of popular leaders within the party;
  

Highlights of agenda:

• Ibra's agenda concentrates on long term solutions rather than popular "stop gap" answers to problems. He focuses on issues like rule of law and primary education, which are a bit removed from the day-to-day problems of the people.
  


• For the Maldives Ibra's vision is an economically sufficient country, where disparities of wealth across the community are reduced, and where all Maldivians get to enjoy the benefits of economic growth and prosperity on an equitable basis.
  


• Ibra plans to achieve this through promoting innovative thinking and making forays into new industries and economic activities.
  

The truth about Gasim’s philanthropy

With 700 students studying on Villa Scholarships and thousands of patients getting treated abroad, few would even think of denying Gasim Ibrahim's philanthropic credentials. His detractors have therefore concentrated on questioning his motives and casting aspersions on how he acquired wealth, slyly insinuating that he has some undisclosed obligations to spend on welfare.

One such insinuation revolves around the loans granted by International Finance Corporation (IFC) to Villa Shipping and Trade. A popular story alleges that Villa Foundation (which grants Villa Scholarships) is a precondition set by IFC for the loans. Let us examine this allegation in detail. IFC says its work is to provide investments and advisory services to build the private sector in developing countries. It operates commercially and grants loans at market-based interest rates up to a maximum of 25% of the project cost. Eligibility criteria for IFC loans do not include establishing national scholarship schemes. The detailed eligibility criteria merely require that a project must:

• Be located in a developing country that is a member of IFC;
• Be in the private sector;
• Be technically sound;
• Have good prospects of being profitable;
• Benefit the local economy; and
• Be environmentally and socially sound, satisfying IFC environmental and social standards as well as those of the host country.
  

Gasim is not the only Maldivian borrower from IFC, nor is he the biggest. According to information currently disclosed by IFC, it has granted a total of $ 74.5 million to the Maldives private sector. This includes $ 25 million to Universal Enterprises, $ 21 million to Villa, $ 20 million to Wataniya Maldives and $ 8.5 million to Taj Hotels. (see graph above.) These are all type A loans subject to the same terms and conditions.

A related insinuation is that the loan to Gasim was secured by a Government guarantee. Funnily enough, IFC regulations prohibit the organization from accepting government guarantees. IFC relies instead on the client company's proposal and track record. IFC "fully shares risks with its partners."

According to another widely circulated story, Gasim did not become rich but was made rich by Ilyas Ibrahim. The story says Gasim became rich through a petroleum monopoly served to him on a platter by STO, when Ilyas was running the company.

Gasim says, far from favoring him, the government has constantly put hurdles in his path. In an interview to TVM's Siyaasath program, Gasim revealed how the government willfully blocked him from bagging a dealership from Sri Lanka Petroleum Company. Gasim says STO also tried, though unsuccessfully, to block his dealership with Shell for importing Rotella and other petroleum products.

To put Gasim's revelations in perspective, one must recall that the backdrop for the alleged events was the 1980s, a period during which the government followed a policy of foreign exchange controls and restrictive import quotas. STO was involved in many dealership feuds with private companies during the period, one of the most celebrated of which was the one with DIK over the dealership of Benson and Hedges.

We may never know Gasim's true motives, if any, for his philanthropy. But one thing is certain. He was already the biggest individual spender on health and education long before there was any practical hope of standing for the presidency.

Election unlikely on October 4

It appears that the Presidential Election slated for October 4^th may not be held on that date. On Monday Commissioner of Elections Mohammed Ibrahim proposed this date contingent upon the establishment of the Supreme Court and the passage of two pieces of crucial legislation within this week: the Law on Elections and the Law on Presidential Election. Barring a miracle, these will not happen within that deadline. Where do we go from here?

One obvious implication is that the election must be postponed to allow time for passing the laws, drafting regulations and institutionalizing them. But how long can the election be postponed? To meet the constitutional deadline for inaugurating the new President on November 11, the first round of the election must finish latest by 31 October. This will leave a bare minimum of 10 days for completing the second round, should that become necessary. There is one problem however with such a postponement: Article 301 (Haa) of the Constitution requires that the Presidential Election must be completed by October 10.

Postponement of the date of inauguration beyond November 11 will involve an additional predicament. November 11 has traditionally been the date of oath taking right from 1968. Thus postponement beyond that date requires the crossing of a psychological barrier, in addition to the legal limit specified in Article 301 (Shaviyani) of the Constitution.

Some experts are of the opinion that postponement of the dates stipulated in Article 301 of the Constitution will lead to a legal void. But void or not, it must be done if necessary. As John Wayne says, "A man's gotta do what a man's gotta do." The Majlis and the new Supreme Court must be prepared to deal with this eventuality.

Apart from the legal constraints, is it desirable to postpone the election? This is a very controversial question and opinions are likely to be sharply divided. One argument against it is that postponement beyond November 11 will result in a government without legitimacy, a very imprudent precedent to create. Such an illegitimate government it is argued could go on indefinitely, an eventuality that will be unacceptable to the people and could lead to mass protests.

The argument for postponement is that it will give sufficient time for the newly formed Election Commission to do a thorough job instead of a hurried election. Additionally, it will also give the electorate enough time to get familiar with the manifestos of recently formed parties such as Jumhooree Party and Gaumee Itthihaad. The argument here is that the public must be given all opportunities to make an informed decision.

Despite the strong arguments against it, postponement of the election date now appears likely. And with each passing day the Election Commission is running out of options.

Are independent commissions the answer?

I was strolling down the waterfront with my friend Azeez. It was a cloudy evening and the monsoon winds were cool. We were engaging in the usual chitchat –how soon Ramazan had come and how fast prices were rising. There is an old saying in the Maldives: the fasting month is prosperity. But this year it was anything but that. Everything had become expensive –fish, watermelon, chilly, lemon... Soon the topic changed to politics and reform.

"Hameed, reform is already happening. We got a new constitution on 7 August. Independent commissions are burgeoning. But still the prices keep on rising and I'm not able to pay rent. Do you really believe reform is the answer to our problems?" Azeez asked me. He had a point. So many independent commissions and independent posts had come up during the past few months –Chief Justice, Election Commission, Prosecutor General, just to name a few.

"Give them time," I told Azeez, "they have just been appointed."

"Time for what? To increase their salaries and perks more?" he shot back. "That's the only thing they seem to be doing. And to think these reformists all talk about reducing government costs. How can they pass salaries like 60,000 rufiyaa, when the ordinary man does not get even 3000?"

"They will reduce costs when they come to power," I replied.

"Do you really want me to believe that?" he shot back, "Reformists are already in the Majlis. Why did they vote to increase their own salaries? When they keep on passing astronomical salaries, don't they know the state of our economy?" Azeez appeared to be rather worked up and angry at this point. So I tried changing the topic.

"How are Nasheeda and your daughter Ainth?" I asked.

"Nasheeda is not feeling well. IGMH doctors couldn't diagnose her. So I have requested for Villa assistance to go to Trivandrum. Didn't you know Ainth got a Villa scholarship this year to do an MBA in Malaysia?"

"So that means you are going to vote for Gasim aren't you?" I asked.

"Voting is different. I'm not going to sell my vote for money. I don't mind who is in power, even the current government, as long as I can find a job and earn money to pay my bills. But if I can't buy food and other essential items, then I will be worried. If I can't send my children to school, and if their teachers are on strike, I will be very concerned, even angry." I tried again to steer the conversation to the main topic, independent commissions.

"With the new commissions and Majlis members getting high salaries, they will remain independent and reduce corruption," I said. My friend just laughed.

"Are they really independent? They appear to be the same, or worse. The independence is only in name. Just see how the Election Commission was formed yesterday. It's obvious who will control the Commission. This is a shame. Nothing will change."

"Please don't be so negative. Things are going to improve," I told him. "I have no doubt they will be truly independent. If they aren't there will be watchdogs who will take them to task."

Even as I was reassuring Azeez, I was not very confident myself about the immediate future. But with the Presidential and Majlis elections coming up shortly, there was hope. I then recalled the famous conversation between Gandhi and the British Viceroy in India, who warned Gandhi that if the British left India there will be chaos. "But that will be OUR chaos," Gandhi shot back.

Waiting for the elusive wave of voter support

If you happened to tune in to Barack Obama's acceptance speech at the 2008 Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado, on August 28, and saw tears running down the faces of his audience, then you would know what it means to electrify an electorate. It's painfully obvious that no candidate in the Maldives Presidential election has come anywhere near that level of voter frenzy. With the election coming up in less than 30 days, the majority of Maldivian voters still appear to be undecided.

And yet, it is this very indecision that raises the possibility of a wave of mass support for a lucky candidate. Let's look at it this way. So far perhaps only about half the voters have firmly decided on a candidate. This means that about 100,000 remaining voters will be making up their mind within the next 3 weeks or so. The chances are that this number will be unequally divided among the 7 or 8 candidates in the fray. If any of the candidates manages somehow to attract the lion's share of these 100,000 voters, he could trigger a wave.

So far there have been few signs of any candidate triggering even a ripple, let alone a wave. The nearest to that was when Gasim Ibrahim joined Jumhooree Party about a month back, along with many high ranking politicians. Within days the party laid claims to being the second largest group in the Majlis. This claim was backed up by a surprising victory for their candidate Mohammed Shihab in the election to the post of Speaker of the Majlis. At that point Jumhooree Party appeared to be on the verge of a tsunami. But then the momentum has slowed down, and some say even reversed. The party suffered two major setbacks in a row last week. One, in the formation of the Election Commission and the other in the resignation of Zubair, the Majlis Member for North Ari Atoll.

Hassan Saeed got an image boost following his performance in the presidential debate and his victories in two opinion polls (though the results of both are disputed.) But so far this boost has not triggered any wave. Further, he may find it difficult to keep up with the increasing pace of the campaign, as he lacks a party to back him.

According to most pundits Anni is slowly gaining in popularity and with MDP well organized and capable of scaling up the campaign across the country, he appears to be positioned to mobilize a landslide. He however is hampered by an image trap, which he must offset by selecting a running mate with the right type of image.

What happens if no candidate manages to take and overwhelming lead? According to most pundits such a situation could favor Gayoom, who could then coast to victory in the first round with a wafer thin majority. Others say that the election would go into a second round, raising the possibility of artificially forced realignments among the candidates and their supporters.

With barely a month left for the election, time is running out for the candidates to trigger the elusive wave. Will any of them succeed?

Munavvar’s selection a tactical move

Quoting reliable sources, the local media reports that Gasim Ibrahim has selected Dr. Mohammed Munavvar as his running mate. This appears to be a tactical move by Jumhooree Party to establish a base in the South, following the failure of talks with another Addu person, Dr. Ugail.

Selecting a running mate from Addu will be helpful to Gasim's bid for the presidency, not just because Addu is the most populous atoll. Addu people have a disproportionately high influence on Maldivian politics because of two reasons. First, they are more politically conscious than people of other atolls. Second, they are more connected to the internet compared to most other atolls, which enables committed activists among them to launch web-based campaigns.

Munavvar was formerly the President of MDP, a post he won in an election last year, in which he prevailed over Ibrahim Hussein Zaki. However, this year he lost the party presidential primaries to Mohammed Nasheed (Anni). When Jumhooree party was launched, he resigned from MDP and joined the new party.

What will Munavvar bring to Jumhooree party from Addu? Judging from his showing in the past two polls, he does have a core of loyal supporters in the atoll. However, in a four-way contest with MDP, DRP and Hassan Saeed, the share of votes Jumhooree Party actually gets may be somewhat less than what either Gasim or Munavvar expects.

Despite this, all in all, Munavvar is likely be positive at least in Addu for Jumhooree Party, which currently does not have sufficient party cadres in Addu to launch an effective campaign. With Munavvar's appointment the Party can immediately put to use his core supporters, an important consideration given the shortage of time left for the election.

At the national level, things are more difficult to predict. Unlike Dr. Ugail, Munavvar comes to Jumhooree Party with a heavy load of baggage, some of that positive and some negative. Only time will tell which way the load will tip.

Why did Dr. Hassan lead the DhiFM survey?

When Dr. Hassan Saeed took an overwhelming 85% lead in the SMS survey conducted by DhiTV last night, it shocked many viewers. Conventional wisdom was that either Gayoom or Anni would win, or perhaps Gasim. So how did Hassan upset all these calculations?

Some say Dr. Hassan has charisma, or at least some sort of charm on young ladies. Others say he fits the mental image most Maldivians have of the archetypical president, an image that has been etched into their psyche through 30 years of TV programming. Yet others say he is capable and has a better manifesto. So, which of these factors helped him to top the survey?

We may never be able to answer this question accurately. However, there are some pointers to the truth. Let us examine them one by one.

• When Hassan joined the cabinet in 2003, he was basically an island boy with no family connections and hardly any experience in Maldivian politics. But within two years, he became the most powerful man in the cabinet, outsmarting both Kamineege and Endherimaage camps, beating them at their own game. What sort of talent enabled Hassan to achieve this?
  
• Prior to 2003, Attorney General's Office was a dull and drab institution, with very little to do except passing on police investigation reports to the courts. By the time Hassan resigned in 2007, AG Office has become the center of the government's reform agenda. How did this happen? Was Hassan favored by Gayoom as some people allege? But why on earth would Gayoom prefer him over his relatives and friends?
  
• In the first DRP Congress, Hassan was elected as one of the vice presidents. His success over rich businessmen like Nazim, Jabir and Nashid as well as a seasoned politician like Ilyas surprised many. What was the talent he used to achieve this?
  
• In June this year, when I (the author of this blog) visited Kulhudhuffushi and some other islands in Haa Dhaalu and talked to the people, many of them including middle aged women told me Hassan was saying "some good things." (Varah rangalhu vaahaka dhakkaa.) They were obviously referring to Hassan's manifesto. By that time most other presidential candidates either did not have an agenda or just concentrated on criticizing the government. Was it Hassan's well written and well articulated manifesto that set him apart as the alternative to Gayoom?
  

Of course, it's still very early in the campaign to predict who the winner will be. Further, an SMS survey is not an accurate scientific measure of public opinion. But still, the results of the survey certainly give a boost to Hassan's campaign. There will be many more surveys along the way. However, their accuracy will be more and more suspect as rival candidates will most certainly try to influence the surveys by recruiting bogus voters.

What would MDP Aneh Dhivehi Rajje feel like?

"A moment comes, which comes but rarely in history, when we step out from the old to the new, when an age ends, and when the soul of the nation, long suppressed, finds utterance." –Jawaharlal Nehru

MDP presidential candidate Mohammed Nasheed (Anni) echoed Nehru's famous 'Tryst with Destiny' speech in the opening of salvo of the Riyaasee Suvaalu debate, which he decisively won according to most viewers.

"There will be moments in a country's life," Anni said, "moments that change the country's situation from one state to another." He then went on to describe the current state where citizens daily face the rising cost of living, where one in five families live in a single room, and where people are forced to beg for health care. Anni then promised to take the country to the shores of Aneh Dhivehi Rajje.

But how would it feel like to live in Aneh Dhivehi Rajje? Anni painted quite a vivid picture of Aneh Dhivehi Rajje in his four brief statements during the debate. Perhaps it was the cohesiveness of this picture that enabled Anni to outscore his rivals, many of who were reputed orators. Here are the main elements of the picture:

• There will be clean government, with no place for authoritarian rule. This will be ensured through a competitive political process in a multiparty environment. Businessmen will not be allowed to pollute the political process.
  


• In Aneh Dhivehi Rajje, the government will be compassionate and listen to the concerns of the people. It will give priority to address these concerns.
  


• Reducing the cost of living will be the main thrust of economic policy. In Aneh Dhivehi Rajje, the cost of living will be affordable.
  


• People will not have to spend half their life waiting for a house in Aneh Dhivehi Rajje. Every citizen will have access to long term financing to own a home.
  


• In Aneh Dhivehi Rajje, a transport network will connect all islands. It will enhance trade by facilitating the transfer of services and goods from one island to the other.
  


• The people will not have to beg for healthcare in Aneh Dhivehi Rajje. All citizens will be covered under a health insurance scheme.
  


• In Aneh Dhivehi Rajje, the doors will be closed for drug smuggling. However, those who fall victim to drugs will be treated with compassion.
  


• The people will get the full benefit of national income from tourism and fisheries. This will be ensured, among other things, by reducing wasteful government expenditure.
  


• In Aneh Dhivehi Rajje, the government will develop the resources, equipment, people and facilities needed for tourism and fisheries.
  


• People will be empowered to stand on their own feet, generate income, and proudly help their own children, family and relatives.
  


• Citizens' human rights will be protected in Aneh Dhivehi Rajje. And the people will vote wisely to elect their government.

Who won the Riyaasee Suvaalu?

Six presidential hopefuls locked their horns in the first round of their debate, "Riyaasee Suvaalu", last night on TVM. The debate was full of sound and fury, but did it signify anything?

Answering the three standard questions put to each candidate, incumbent President Gayoom justified his track record since assumption of power in 1978. Quoting figures, he said the progress Maldives made in the three decades is a world record. Gayoom however reacted sharply to criticism of his track record by other candidates.

Anni appeared to be the most relaxed and composed among the candidates. He promised clean government and offered solutions to urgent problems facing the people, such as housing and the rising cost of living.

Gasim offered to solve the problems faced by the people, in areas such as health and education. In order to raise the money needed for social services he proposed introducing new taxes. He said he has the experience and the ability to continue the reform agenda.

Though a bit tense, Hassan Saeed was quite eloquent in introducing his agenda. His main thrust was on reducing wasteful expenditure, law and order and improving tourism related infrastructure and support services.

While Ibra stressed rule of law, Umar Naseer based his agenda on drug control and private sector development.

In general all candidates performed credibly. The following are the salient points made by each of them to help readers make their own judgments as to who won the debate.

Gayoom

• I am very happy to be here to see this day. It has been my dream to see a multi-party democratic election in the Maldives.
  
• When I came in 1978, the country faced a food shortage, and it was poor. Health centers and schools were few. Now these areas have improved vastly.
  
• I launched a reform agenda in 2004. Many of the reforms have been achieved; but there is unfinished agenda.
  
• While the economy has also progressed, it faces new challenges. Only someone with experience can face these challenges –someone who has the trust of international institutions.
  
• My promises are based on reality and thus feasible.
  
• I will strengthen drug control by establishing a special anti-narcotics force. Borders will be sealed against drug smuggling and harsh punishment will be given to drug traffickers. I will expand existing capacity for drug rehabilitation by establishing 2 additional centers with 500 capacity.
  
• I will reduce the crime rate and enable people to live safe happy lives.
  
• I will build 1500 flats in Hulhumale each year. In addition to this, 2 urban centers will be developed in the north and south of the country.
  
• This forum is not for talking about the past, but for presenting future plans. We must also accept the reality. The reform agenda is mine. For health care, people don't have to beg as some others are saying. It is done through government budget. Contrary to what others are saying laws have also been made.
  
• Through my reform agenda a new Constitution has been adopted, with separation of powers and full rights for the people.
  
• In the tourism sector 64 new islands are being developed and during 2010 we will achieve 1,000,000 tourist arrivals.
  
• In the area of fisheries, investments have been made and large fishing vessels have been built. This will be continued.
  
• We must accept reality. Already hospitals and schools exist. I also have a plan for population consolidation along with the development of safe islands.
  
• The government does not need do everything. I will empower the people so that they can solve many of their problems.
  
• A health insurance scheme has already been launched and will be further expanded.
  
• All preparations for establishing a university have already been made and what is remaining is the passing of the necessary legislation.
  
• We must also accept the reality that we can't provide equal services to people living in different places.
  
• We have made much progress in the last 30 years with reduction in infant mortality and increase in life expectancy.
  
• Tourism has expanded from 1300 arrivals to 700,000 and GDP increased from $300 to $ 2,900. These did not just happen. It was planned. That progress is a world record that cannot be broken.
  
• All problems we face today are the result of the progress we have made so far. We need to solve these problems.
  
• To do this we need taxation and above all a conducive political atmosphere.
  
• I will build a bridge to Hulhumale. It will solve most problems faced by Male people.
  

Hassan Saeed

• We face many challenges. The People have to beg for health care. There is no safe water in 195 of the inhabited islands. One in three children goes into drug addiction. Only a 100 of those who sit for O level exams get government funds to study abroad. There is no safety on the roads.
  
• If I am elected I can solve these problems.
  
• Strict punishment is needed to control drugs.
  
• The current government has 44 members of the president's family in strong positions in the government. In my government there will be no members of my family.
  
• Before the elections I will present a schedule for implementing my agenda, including a plan for raising the money needed.
  
• If I am elected I will ensure that atoll chiefs and island chiefs are elected by the people to run their affairs.
  
• I will also ensure equitable distribution of wealth and reduce wasteful expenditure such as that on the Presidential Palace.
  
• The economy will be diversified and fisheries in the EEZ will be brought back to Maldivians. All licenses given to foreigners will be canceled. The seas will be patrolled to control poaching.
  
• Aquaculture will be introduced to diversify fisheries.
  
• While we rely on tourism, our airport is in a pitiable condition and we have no airline. Wealthy tourists do not get business class and first class seats to come to Maldives. I will develop the airport and establish an airline. Duty free shopping will be expanded.
  
• A world class hotel school will be established to train Maldivians for the sector.
  
• I will also diversify tourism by introducing health tourism and retirement homes. I will also change the current situation where only 6 families control tourism sector. Opportunities will be given to new investors to enter tourism. Soft loans will be provided for investment.
  
• I will provide a retirement scheme for resort workers on par with government employees. An investment scheme will be introduced for fisherman.
  
• This is a golden opportunity for the people to change things. They must use the chance wisely. People who offer to buy votes are admitting they are incapable. Those who sell votes are compromising their integrity, and their children will question them in the future.
  
• We respect old people. But it's not old players like Kuda Moosa who brought us the cup. But young players like Ashfag.
  

Gasim

• I want to become president to do things the people want. It requires hard work by capable men. We also need to accelerate the pace of development.
  
• The 1998 constitution also included rights. But people did not get those rights because the necessary laws were not made.
  
• Only someone involved in the process of constitution reform can ensure that the required laws are passed.
  
• I will develop 5 urban centers, with each center having a good hospital, so that citizens do not have to travel abroad for treatment.
  
• If I am elected I can do it; I have the experience and the knowhow to raise the required funds.
  
• I can also solve the drug issue faced by the country.
  
• I will introduce GST tax on tourism in order to raise the funds needed for social services like health and education. Thus every citizen will get the benefits of development.
  
• I will bring control of EEZ fisheries to Maldivians and ban harmful practices like the use of nets.
  
• I will establish an investment bank to provide soft loans. Taxes on loans will be reduced.
  
• Air transport will be provided to all atolls and a sea transport network will connect all islands.
  
• I am sure the people will vote differently this time to elect a responsible layer.
  
• I came to politics to change things. Everyone knows that for the first three years of Special Majlis not a single word was written in the constitution. But it has now been completed.
  
• All this was made possible because of sacrifices by many people.
  
• Everybody knows the situation that existed before 7th august, and what needs to be done to consolidate the gains. Only a someone with experience can do it.
  

Anni

• This is a rare moment in time, an opportunity for change. We have made a lot of sacrifices to reach it.
  
• Multiparty democracy is essential for clean government.
  
• Our past experience is that rich businessmen have always tried to influence the government to their advantage.
  
• We have listened to the people and conducted surveys to identify people's concerns.
  
• One of the main concerns is the increasing cost of living. We promise we will keep prices within reach of ordinary people.
  
• Housing is another problem especially in Male, with 1 in 5 families living in one room. We will provide soft loans for housing.
  
• We will develop a transport system to connect all islands and facilitate business.
  
• We will control drugs and provide rehabilitation of prisoners.
  
• We shall reduce wasteful government expenditure that prevents people from getting the benefits of development.
  
• Monopolies are preventing fisherman from getting the full international price for their products. We will ensure that fisherman get their rightful dues.
  
• I believe that the tourism sector is moving in the right direction. I will provide protection to those who work in the sector.
  
• Services do not reach the people not because the country is large, but because there is no transport system. We shall establish a transport network. We shall also establish health insurance so that health care is within the reach of the people.
  
• In order to implement our programs we will raise the needed funds, establish the necessary infrastructure and train human resources.
  
• We are moving towards another Maldives. We all know how we are here. The old system is changing and old people are changing their ways. Barriers are coming down.
  
• We call on the people not to sell their votes or bow down to pressure. It's a fair election that the people want.
  

Ibra

• In 2004 people came out in protest because they knew there was no other way to get their rights. This has been historically so. The Constitutional reform was necessary because without it people would not get their rights.
  
• There is no rule of law in the country and a sincere person is needed to bring the rights in the reformed constitution to the people.
  
• I am not making too many promises. My main promise is to establish the rule of law, and it can be done soon.
  
• Once rule of law is established, people can progress on their own.
  
• I will provide quality pre-school education free of cost.
  
• I shall bring the drug situation under reasonable control within 2 years. Drugs are out of control because there is no rule of law.
  
• Health care and other social services can be provided to all, once we reduce wasteful government expenditure.
  
• I shall increase taxation to raise the money needed to bring the benefits of development to the people, and distribute wealth equitably.
  
• I will ensure that sincere people who do honest work are rewarded, not just party members.
  
• Banks play a crucial role in development, though hidden. I shall ensure soft loans are available to small and medium businesses.
  
• In the area of fisheries, foreigners will be excluded. The sector will be developed through encouraging the private sector. The government role will be to maintain quality control.
  
• There is no system to distribute wealth, and rich people are monopolizing businesses. I will introduce an Anti-trust law to address this.
  
• The election will change the future direction of the country and the people must keep this in mind. They will see the results of their vote for the next 5 years.
  
• The people have seen how those who have been entrusted responsibilities have performed. They know who delivered results and who made excuses. People beyond 40 years don't change their characters.
  
• I am not interested to come to power through just any means. I have a vision. Those who share that vision please vote for me.
  

Umar Naseer

• We are currently navigating a dangerous ocean, and getting wrecked in each reef –drugs, religious divisions, housing shortages, basic services like jetties, crime.
  
• Teachers have no control over students, parents have no control over children, and the government has no control over citizens.
  
• I also could have ignored these issues; but my patriotism has forced me to come and tackle the issues. I will not budge from my responsibilities.
  
• I am willing to sacrifice my life for the nation and I am also prepared to take lives for the nation, should the need arise.
  
• I will bring people to the religion and introduce the Sharia law.
  
• In 10 years I will reverse the drug situation. I will do this through implementing death sentences for traffickers and confiscating their property.
  
• I shall relocate people living in islands with less than 400 population in the first 5 years and those living in islands with less than 700 in the second 5 years. I shall develop 4 cities in different parts of the country.
  
• I will establish local government in 5 areas of the country, governed by elected mayors and atoll chiefs.
  
• In my government, economic government will be through the free market and open competition for the private sector. Soft loans will be provided.
  
• In the area of fisheries, subsidiary industries will be developed. Aquaculture will be extensively developed.
  
• Health insurance will be provided to all citizens.
  
• Tourism will be developed through public companies with shares sold to the public.
  
• The people get the responsibility to vote once in 5 years. The vote is not a prize or a medal to be given to someone for past services. Nor is it for sale to someone with money.