What Happens after the Elections?

The following Mullah Nasruddin story gives a clue to what will happen in the aftermath of the general elections slated for May 9:

When Mullah undercut the local donkey merchant's prices for the third week in succession, the merchant was worried. "I don't know how you offer lower prices than mine. I use my slaves' free labor. They steal fodder from neighbors to feed my donkeys. So how do you keep your costs lower?"

"Simple," Mullah replied, "you steal labor and fodder. I steal donkeys."

In this story substitute 'merchant' with one of the political parties and 'Mullah' with another party. Also substitute 'labor' with campaign effort and 'fodder' with monetary gifts. And yes, I forgot, 'donkeys' with members (the pun is not intended).

Like the merchant some parties are spending on 'labor' and 'fodder'. But the smart parties are waiting for the election to be over to buy the elected members. As Mullah would have said, this is a much more cost effective method of stealing the public mandate.

So how will the whole thing end? This could depend on what is on offer. Let's sum this up in poker terms. If independents have a Full House, then DRP has Four of a Kind. But it's MDP that holds the Royal Flush.

Can DRP Unite the Country?

As articulated by former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, DRP’s main election promise this time is to unite the country politically and religiously. This is one promise that is unlikely to be fulfilled even if the DRP-PA alliance gets all the seats in the Majlis. We are not talking here about the capability of the alliance, but the impossible nature of achieving social unity, a task no country has achieved in modern times.

In fact developed countries have realized the impossibility of achieving such unity and have adopted a policy of multi-culturalism long ago. The policy involves accepting the differences between various groups and tolerating them.

It’s not actually very difficult to understand why unity cannot be achieved in an information age. When one knows a subject one is likely to have opinions on various aspects of the subject. The more one knows the subject, the stronger his opinions are likely to be. Further, strong opinions are likely to clash. It is such clash of opinions that results in factionalism.

In the Maldives case, religious factionalism started with increased religious awareness created over the last three decades. Religious awareness is still increasing in the Maldives, so factionalism will also keep increasing.

There is no basis for the claim that ignorance is the cause of extremism and jihadism. All academic studies on the subject reveal that jihadists are generally more educated than the average person in the community from which they come. (Recall the academic backgrounds of 9/11 hijackers.)

In the sphere of politics too, awareness is increasing in the Maldives. So political divisions are also likely to increase in the future.

Probably Maumoon himself knows that he will never be able to unite the Maldives the way it used to be. After all, when all the disunity occurred he was firmly in power. What can he do now that he couldn’t do earlier?

Pointless Primaries

In recent party primaries for parliamentary seats, many winning candidates scored less than 100 votes. This is trivial, considering that a typical Majlis constituency averages about 5000 population and 3500 voters. The result would also be statistically insignificant because there is no valid sampling technique involved in the primaries to include the many subsets of voters in the constituency with varying backgrounds and beliefs. As such, the results of the primaries are unlikely to be predictive of the winning chances of a candidate. So it is not surprising that many losing candidates opt to fight the elections anyway as independent candidates.

The latest incident of this nature involves former Male Atoll member Donad Adam Fulhu's decision to contest the Gaafaru-Kaashidhoo seat of Male Atoll, despite losing the primaries to former Higher Education Minister Ibrahim Hassan (Chubby). The latter has reportedly left the fray in a huff. The case of former Information Minister Nasheed deciding to contest the Kulhudhuffushi South seat is somewhat different because he opted not to take part in the primaries, but his reasons to go it alone are probably similar.

This phenomenon is not limited just to DRP. Ruling party member and sitting MP Sanco Shareef has also decided to contest a Maafannu seat despite losing the primaries to Falah. This is not an isolated case as many other losing candidates from the party are rumored to be contesting.

What's interesting is that in most cases the 'rebel' candidates appear to be leading the 'official' candidates. The words 'rebel' and 'official' are enclosed within inverted commas here because there are reasons to believe that many of the so-called rebel candidates have the political and financial backing of senior party leaders. This is exactly what Chubby alleged in his statement while withdrawing from the contest. This phenomenon is also not limited just to DRP.

So, is there any point in holding party primaries? After all, neighboring countries like India do not hold primaries. Of course the Americans do. The question is: are we closer to India or to the US in terms of voter awareness and openness?

What is DRP’s Game Plan?

There is nothing extraordinary about Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) wanting to secure 50 seats, or 60 seats or even all the 75 seats in the forthcoming parliamentary elections. What IS remarkable is the strategy it appears to be adopting to achieve that ambitious goal.

From the signals Party leader Gayoom is giving out it appears the party is thinking of treading the beaten track, raising the bogey of Christianity and the ghost of xenophobia. "A few nights ago, I said we need to win, not just 50 seats but a minimum of 60 seats. If we secure 60 seats out of the 75 seats in the Majlis, then DRP will be able to steer the country back on track; we will able to protect the country's Islamic faith; there will be no opportunity for other religions in Maldives; the country's political system will prevail, and nobody will be able interfere with the country's sovereignty," Gayoom said speaking at the party's General Assembly held on Sunday night at Dharubaaruge.

Gayoom also tried his usual rhetoric of claiming the credit for reforms and development. Speaking in this vein, he said that if the party wins sufficient seats they will be able to put the country back on track and bring further development.

Using a tried and failed method may not appear very smart. But appearances may be deceptive, especially superficial appearances. Deeper analysis shows that DRP did get 46% of the votes during the presidential election. The party's current strategy might be to retain that vote share. If they manage that and if the ruling coalition gets divided what would be the result? Only time will tell.

Will Maumoon Resign from DRP Leadership?

"The keenest sorrow is to recognize ourselves as the sole cause of all our adversities." – Sophocles (496 BC - 406 BC)

It is customary for party leaders to resign when they lose national elections. But when questioned about possible resignation in the aftermath of his debacle in the Presidential Election, Maumoon surprised the reporter by replying he would continue as DRP leader if party members want him to continue. This reply means he has no intention whatsoever of resigning. But an answered question remains. Will he hold a referendum among party members to seek their opinion whether he should continue? Or will he simply assume he has their support and continue as party leader, pretending nothing has happened, till the next party election?

If a referendum or a fresh election is held for party leadership, it will give members a chance to decide their future direction. DRP includes many potential young leaders who could revitalize the party into a credible opposition and prepare for the forthcoming Majlis elections. "Ability is of little account without opportunity." – Napoleon Bonaparte

Maumoon justified his bid for a 7^th term saying he wanted to continue his unfinished 'Reform Agenda'. He will soon have to think of a fresh justification for continuing as DRP leader. The old justification –unfinished agenda – did not work last time. It may not work next time either.

President Gayoom has had the opportunity to serve the Maldives for three decades. Perhaps it would occur to him one day that nobody is indispensable.

What Issues Will Decide the Election?

The priority political parties give to different election issues may be gauged from the campaign time they devote to each issue. Based on this one could easily compile a list of top election issues as seen by the parties. But what are the top election issues as seen by the voters? This is more difficult to gauge accurately as it would require an expensive survey. But a fairly good idea may be obtained by interviewing voters from different backgrounds. From such exercises it appears that political party priorities and voter preferences appear to be quite different.

Top issues for parties based on the time devoted:

• Religion: Both MDP and DRP claim to be the sole defenders of the faith. DRP accuses MDP of plotting to bring Christianity to the Maldives. MDP accuses President Gayoom of fostering an irreligious culture.
  
• Competence of candidate: DRP accuses Anni of lack of experience, incompetency and inciting lawlessness. MDP counters by claiming it has a better team, and accuses Gayoom of being corrupt and a failure.
  
• Drugs: MDP accuses Gayoom of failing to curb the spread of drugs. DRP accuses Anni of being sympathetic to drug addicts.
  
• Past record: DRP claims it has an impressive development record. MDP dismisses it saying it is not enough compared to the opportunities and resources.
  
• Reforms: MDP claims the reforms of the past 4 years were due to their pressure. DRP says the reforms were initiated by President Gayoom.
  
• Development promises: In the second round of the election, manifestos have taken a backseat in both DRP and MDP camps.
  

Top reasons for voter preference, based on interviews:

• Personality: Most voters were not able to tell why they liked a particular candidate. Many people who voted for Gayoom said they simply liked him. Anni appears to be a bit behind Gayoom in this area. There are many people who say they would have voted for Hassan Saeed, had he been in the second round.
  
• Perceived sincerity and trustworthiness: More than the actual promises, most voters gave preference to how they thought each candidate will keep those promises. Interestingly voter decisions on the sincerity of a candidate were not based on any objective criteria, but subjective perception.
  
• Perceived competence: Capability of candidates was also decided by the voters based on subjective impressions. For example, while many voters thought Hassan Saeed was capable, few of them actually knew any details of his work.
  

[Note: this is not a scientific study and no claim is made for the accuracy of the findings.]

Wathan Edhenee Kon Team akah?

We have heard ad nauseam that MDP does not have capable leaders. Such a slight could have perhaps been plausible about a month back, before the party formed a coalition with Gaumee Itthihaad Party. And now with the formation of the 'Wathan Edhey Gothah…' coalition, the accusation borders on the ridiculous.

Today while the ruling team also has capable leaders, Wathan Edhey team can credibly match them man for man. To illustrate this, let us compare possible choices for some key cabinet positions. Such a comparison can only be hypothetical because the size and shape of the future cabinet is unlikely to be the same as at present, even if DRP wins the election. Further it is difficult to predict who will be offered cabinet posts and who will accept. Keeping these limitations in mind, here are some possible pairs.

Education:

• Dr. Waheed
  


• Zahiya Zareer
  

Health:

• Ilyas
  


• Dr. Aminath Jameel
  

Trade and Tourism

• Ali Hashim
  


• Yamin
  

Fisheries

• Dr. Hussein Rasheed
  


• Dr. Fathin Hameed
  

Islamic Affairs

• Mohamed Rasheed Ibrahim
  


• Dr. Abdul Majeed
  

Legal Reform:

• Mohamed Nasheed
  


• Dr. Hassan Saeed
  

Attorney General

• Azima
  


• Dhiyana Saeed
  

Justice

• Dr. Jameel
  


• Ahmed Zahir
  

Atolls

• Thasmeen
  


• Dr. Mustafa Luthfee
  

Finance

• Qasim
  


• Jihad
  

Environment

• Dr. Mausoom
  


• Dr. Mohamed Ali
  

External Affairs

• Dr. Shaheed
  


• Abdullah Shahid
  

Planning

• Hamdhoon Hameed
  


• Abdul Bari Abdullah
  

Youth

• Dr. Aishath Shiham
  


• Hamid Abdul Ghafoor
  

It's the people who will decide on the 28^th which team they want.

Note: The above is not an exhaustive list of all possible ministries or all possible candidates.

The Math – a few scenarios for swinging the votes!

Now that the first round of the election is over and everyone is gearing towards the run-off, just how big is it a task for the ruling party to swing the votes to attain a majority? I have made some assumptions on the possible scenarios on swinging the votes.

The first round showed that over 59% of the voters voted for a change in leadership. So in order for DRP to attain a majority in the run-off they will have to persuade at least over 20% of voters from each of the 3 candidates who have formed an alliance with MDP. Since IDP has bailed out of the coalition, I assume that at the most 50% will swing to DRP (may be unlikely but for argument sake). Also assuming that none of the DRP and MDP voter will swing any way, I present the following analysis (see table above).

Based on the above analysis with a 10%, 15% and 20% swing voters from each of the 3 aligning candidates give the following results (IDP swing is kept constant at 50% for above explained reasons for all calculations)

10% Swing
DRP: 78,774 votes (45%)
MDP Coalition: 97,793 votes (55%)

15% Swing
DRP: 81,678 votes (46%)
MDP Coalition: 94,889 votes (54%)

20% Swing
DRP: 84,581 votes (48%)
MDP Coalition: 91,986 votes (52%)

Question is, is it an attainable task to get such a drastic swing in the remaining couple of weeks? It is up to the voters to decide! And of course the final assumption is that the voter turn out should also remain equally high as the first round of the elections.

This analysis was presented by Ahmed Afaal, for the readers of this blog. He has his own blog (No politics) at http://afaal.blogspot.com/. As always I welcome contributions from the readers of this blog, which I will publish for the benefit of other readers and to keep this blog rich in content.

PA comes home to roost

Abdulla Yameen's return to the DRP fold could very well be the non-event par excellence of Election 2008. It is partly because no one believed Yameen left his brother anyway. It is also partly because Yameen does not appear any longer to be the political persona that he was on 11 April 2007 when he resigned from the cabinet.

Ironically, in an op-ed article in Miadhu Daily following Yameen's resignation in 2007 I had written that considering the situation as it existed then, he had an excellent chance to take a shot at the presidency, IF he started the campaign then. He didn't, and the rest is history, as they say.

As reported by Haveeru Daily, PA's decision to join forces with DRP is the result of 'convergence of ideas' and the inclusion of PA manifesto in that of DRP. "Under this agreement PA will give political support and assistance to promote the DRP presidential candidate and running mate in the 2008 Presidential Election," PA Vice President Moosa Rameez was quoted in Haveeru.

Yameen's return to his brother's side appears less a tactical move and more a zugzwang –the dilemma in chess where one is doomed to make a move. Unlike in mathematical equations, in politics 1+1 does not always add up to 2. It could even result in ½. Only time will tell the result of the DRP + PA equation.

What does Yameen bring to PA? His most obvious gift will be PA's half dozen odd MPs, who still have 6 months before their expiry date. And yes, some of them may even get elected. In return for this 'gift' DRP might have to pay a heavy price –renewed charges of nepotism.

Yameen is likely to get a couple of cabinet berths following this deal. But the looming question is, what did he gain from the one-year sabbatical? It is widely believed he left DRP because of differences of opinion over Gasim Ibrahim's position within the party. Gasim is of course no longer in the party, but others have stepped into the vacuum.

It's a nice gesture on the part of Yameen to come to the side of his aging brother. Probably this just about sums up the whole saga.

Election fever heating up in Huvarafushi

On approaching Huvarafushi the first thing one notices is the yellow painted walls of MDP office and the golden flag flying above in the island's azure sky. The election fever in Huvarafushi is not surprising. After all, it's the political heart of the north, in the same way Kulhudhuffushi is its commercial heart. Going back in time, the peoples of Huvarafushi and Kulhudhuffushi were the joint organizers of the historic Uthuru Arumaazu.

Going by external appearance –flags, colors, music, meetings –the MDP campaign is the strongest in the island. However, appearances can be deceptive. According to many people there is quite a brisk, albeit hidden, DRP campaign in the island. Jumhooree Party leader Qasim Ibrahim has family connections to the island through his wife, whose relatives are also active in the campaign as indicated by JP flags flying over their houses. Social Liberal Party has a relatively minor presence in the island. Despite their small numbers however, SLP contribution is significant, particularly in acting as a watchdog to prevent Civil Service members from campaigning.

Partly due to the high level of political awareness in Huvarafushi, most of the 2000 voters in the island are members of some party, though it is alleged that many of them 'joined' parties involuntarily when someone filled forms on their behalf, sometimes without their knowledge.

It is difficult to gauge how the people of Huvarafushi will vote on October 8^th. But many people believe the competition for the top spot will be between MDP and DRP. Current indications are that JP will be in a distant third position. This however could change dramatically when Qasim Ibrahim visits the island, most people say. Unlike in most other islands, Hassan Saeed's support in Huvarafushi appears small.

The people of Huvarafushi have a long list of grievances, which they expect the next president will solve for them. Here are a few of them as expressed by the people:

• The health center is ill equipped and ill staffed. People travel to Kulhudhuffhishi or Male for even minor health problems.
  


• The school is staffed with reject teachers from Male. Most of them lack teaching and class-control skills;
  


• The harbor, constructed some years back, has now become small and congested.
  


• Apart from some government jobs, there are no employment opportunities in the island. The only significant economic activity is fisheries, which itself is in decline and has become seasonal. Two Male-based companies operate fish processing facilities in the island.
  


• Unlike most high-population islands, the ground water in Huvarafushi is still relatively clean. However, most islanders believe the time has now come for laying a sewage system.
  


• The STELCO operated powerhouse is one service with which the people are happy.

Know your candidates (2): Hassan Saeed

During recent history few people have dominated the affairs of the Maldivian government to the extent Dr. Hassan Saeed did during his brief stint as Attorney General –certainly not anyone with his humble background. When Hassan joined the cabinet in 2003, he was basically an island boy with no family connections and little experience in Maldivian politics. But within two years, he became the most powerful man in the cabinet, outsmarting both Kaamineege and Endherimaage camps, beating them at their own game.

Hassan resigned from the Cabinet rather abruptly in August 2007, and soon announced his intention to stand for the presidential elections. Thus he is one of the first to announce his candidacy and the first to release a comprehensive manifesto. Let us examine his strengths and weaknesses.

Hassan Saeed’s achievements so far:

• Became Attorney General in 2003 (he has since resigned from this post);


• Gave the landmark legal advice that led to the formation of political parties;


• Launched and implemented the Criminal Justice Action Plan;


• Became Vice President of DRP (he has since resigned from this post);


• Made a name for himself among the Maldivian people.
  
  Strengths:


• Educated in both Islamic and western systems, holding a PhD in law;


• Has charisma according to many, and fits the mental image most Maldivians have of the archetypical president;


• Has administrative and political acumen, the skills that enabled him to become the focal point of the government's reform agenda;


• Has energy and is action-oriented.
  
  Weaknesses:


• Played a dubious role when in government, particularly in the prosecution of opposition leaders;


• Introduced controversial practices such as sentencing in absentia;


• Has been prone to taking rash decisions.
  
  Highlights of the agenda:


• Establishing 4 tertiary hospitals across the archipelago and providing emergency medical evacuation by air and sea;


• Providing health insurance to all, giving special attention to socially and economically vulnerable groups;


• Taking strict legal action against drug traffickers;


• Improving locally available education by establishing international schools and universities and facilitating studies abroad through 500 full and 1000 partial scholarships each year;


• Promoting fish exports and protecting the exclusive economic zone of Maldives;


• Attracting foreign investment by promoting confidence in the Maldives;


• Promoting middle and small businesses, job creation and job training;


• Promoting good governance through, establishing island councils, reducing wasteful expenditure, upholding the law, electoral reforms, and press freedom;


• Providing basic services like water, sanitation, housing, electricity and transport by establishing 4 cities;


• Improving law and order through developing a professional police force and training the judiciary.

Who is the real Gasim?

"If I were to ask for anyone's help other than Allah's, I swear I'd ask for yours," Gasim Ibrahim wrote to Gayoom from his Dhoonidhoo cell, while imprisoned there following the August 12-13 incident of 2004.

"The Maldivian people know who fights for their rights and who doesn't," Gasim Ibrahim thundered to his supporters during his party's congress on 22 August 2008.

Was it the same Gasim who made these two statements, and if not which is the real Gasim? Fortune does not change men; it unmasks them. But sometimes people carry to such perfection the mask they have assumed that in due course they actually become the person they seem. So, has Gasim become the mask he wore?

Gasim's privately owned Villa Foundation awards about 150 scholarships to young Maldivians to pursue higher studies each year. Scholars are selected to the scheme on purely objective criteria, with no influence whosoever exercised by the Chairman. More than a 1000 students have benefited from this scheme so far. Gasim's welfare scheme has funded medical treatment abroad for 1000s of poor Maldivians. Most of them have never met Gasim. Was this a truly 'free lunch"?

These two philanthropic schemes rival, or perhaps even exceed, the corresponding Government schemes. Thus Gasim stands out as the philanthropist par excellence. Is this the real Gasim?

With his sponsorship of the 2001 petition signed by 40 intellectuals, Gasim is widely credited for the birth of the party system in the Maldives. He is rumored to be funding most opposition parties in the Maldives including MDP, IDP and Adaalath. On the other hand, he is also rumored to have funded the defection of prominent opposition MPs to DRP. Which of these roles, if any, did the real Gasim play? It's said that for some people there is more to life than just having everything. Is this true for Gasim?

Gasim is also widely credited to have led the constitutional amendment process to a successful conclusion. However, it is also alleged that the finally passed draft had many inconsistencies that Gasim could not prevent. In the process of removing these inconsistencies, it is also alleged he colluded with Ibra and AG Azima to introduce into the draft phrases and clauses never passed by the Majlis. What is the truth here?

As finance minister from mid 2005 to mid 2008, Gasim presided over the biggest budget fiasco in the history of Maldives, which diverted the country's fiscal course irreversibly towards bankruptcy. Did the budget fail because the trade minister and others failed to materialize the mega projects on which the budget depended, as Gasim alleges? Or did it fail because Gasim set rashly impractical targets and gambled with the country's economy?

Gasim's Villa Group currently owns about 15 % of all tourist beds in the country. The figure could even double when resorts currently under development are opened. With massive investments at Keekimini and Maandhoo, Gasim has a controlling interest in the fisheries industry. He also has similar controlling interests in the petroleum and LPG distribution industries. With investments in nearly all types of enterprises in the Maldives, Gasim is the capitalist par excellence. Is this the real face of Gasim?

In Senate confirmation hearings for constitutional posts in the United States, candidates are asked questions designed to bring out their attitudes and ideologies. The underlying belief is that people continue to hold and practice their old beliefs and ideologies in their new jobs, like the proverbial leopard, which does not change its spots. From Gasim's past actions can we predict what sort of president he would become?

Will he be a business friendly capitalist, or a pro-poor socialist with enough courage to introduce heavy taxation to fund social services? In other words, can he run with the hares while hunting with the hounds? Will he become the Lee Kuan Yu of Maldives running a clean administration or will he become the King Fahd of Maldives running a regime of favoritism? Will he become the selfless Mandela of Maldives or the monopolist Stanley Ho (the business tycoon who practically owns Macao) of Maldives? There are telltale clues in Gasim's track record to answer these questions with reasonable accuracy.

For 30 years Maldivians depended on the noblesse of a holy man to build their security. History tells us the outcome. For the next 10 years can they depend on the magnanimity of a philanthropist to build their security? Maldivians can choose their leader; destiny will choose the consequences.

["Destiny is a name often given in retrospect to choices that had dramatic consequences," – J. K. Rowling in Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone ]