MDP does not have any factional fights, or does it?

Two weeks back MDP Chairperson Mariya Didi resigned and Party President Dr. Ibrahim Didi promptly assigned Deputy Chairperson Imthiyaz Fahumy to temporarily discharge the functions of the Chairperson. Then all of a sudden, there was a meeting of the Party National Council, which ousted Imthiyaz and appointed hardliner Reeko Moosa Manik as ‘temporary’ (for one year) Chairperson. Reeko promptly announced major policy changes for the internal working of the Party. Despite all these happenings, both Dr. Didi and Reeko insist that there is no factional fighting within MDP. Really?

The drama raises eyebrows for several reasons. For one, how did the National Council (which meets rarely) hold a meeting so suddenly? Who organized it? More importantly who organized the booing against Imthiyaz’s chairing the meeting? Why was Reeko selected for the post when he himself is a candidate for the permanent post of Chairperson? Who gave the mandate to temporary Chairperson to take major policy decisions, while sidelining an elected Party President?

Three years back, former MDP president Dr. Munavvaru told the media that no one can fill the post of MDP President unless he is willing to remain the puppet of party supremo Mohammed Nasheed. One thing is certain. MDP Presidents have been short-lived, be it Ibrahim Ismail or Munavvaru. Only time will tell how long Dr. Didi survives.

What Happens after the Elections?

The following Mullah Nasruddin story gives a clue to what will happen in the aftermath of the general elections slated for May 9:

When Mullah undercut the local donkey merchant's prices for the third week in succession, the merchant was worried. "I don't know how you offer lower prices than mine. I use my slaves' free labor. They steal fodder from neighbors to feed my donkeys. So how do you keep your costs lower?"

"Simple," Mullah replied, "you steal labor and fodder. I steal donkeys."

In this story substitute 'merchant' with one of the political parties and 'Mullah' with another party. Also substitute 'labor' with campaign effort and 'fodder' with monetary gifts. And yes, I forgot, 'donkeys' with members (the pun is not intended).

Like the merchant some parties are spending on 'labor' and 'fodder'. But the smart parties are waiting for the election to be over to buy the elected members. As Mullah would have said, this is a much more cost effective method of stealing the public mandate.

So how will the whole thing end? This could depend on what is on offer. Let's sum this up in poker terms. If independents have a Full House, then DRP has Four of a Kind. But it's MDP that holds the Royal Flush.

Pointless Primaries

In recent party primaries for parliamentary seats, many winning candidates scored less than 100 votes. This is trivial, considering that a typical Majlis constituency averages about 5000 population and 3500 voters. The result would also be statistically insignificant because there is no valid sampling technique involved in the primaries to include the many subsets of voters in the constituency with varying backgrounds and beliefs. As such, the results of the primaries are unlikely to be predictive of the winning chances of a candidate. So it is not surprising that many losing candidates opt to fight the elections anyway as independent candidates.

The latest incident of this nature involves former Male Atoll member Donad Adam Fulhu's decision to contest the Gaafaru-Kaashidhoo seat of Male Atoll, despite losing the primaries to former Higher Education Minister Ibrahim Hassan (Chubby). The latter has reportedly left the fray in a huff. The case of former Information Minister Nasheed deciding to contest the Kulhudhuffushi South seat is somewhat different because he opted not to take part in the primaries, but his reasons to go it alone are probably similar.

This phenomenon is not limited just to DRP. Ruling party member and sitting MP Sanco Shareef has also decided to contest a Maafannu seat despite losing the primaries to Falah. This is not an isolated case as many other losing candidates from the party are rumored to be contesting.

What's interesting is that in most cases the 'rebel' candidates appear to be leading the 'official' candidates. The words 'rebel' and 'official' are enclosed within inverted commas here because there are reasons to believe that many of the so-called rebel candidates have the political and financial backing of senior party leaders. This is exactly what Chubby alleged in his statement while withdrawing from the contest. This phenomenon is also not limited just to DRP.

So, is there any point in holding party primaries? After all, neighboring countries like India do not hold primaries. Of course the Americans do. The question is: are we closer to India or to the US in terms of voter awareness and openness?

What Issues Will Decide the Election?

The priority political parties give to different election issues may be gauged from the campaign time they devote to each issue. Based on this one could easily compile a list of top election issues as seen by the parties. But what are the top election issues as seen by the voters? This is more difficult to gauge accurately as it would require an expensive survey. But a fairly good idea may be obtained by interviewing voters from different backgrounds. From such exercises it appears that political party priorities and voter preferences appear to be quite different.

Top issues for parties based on the time devoted:

• Religion: Both MDP and DRP claim to be the sole defenders of the faith. DRP accuses MDP of plotting to bring Christianity to the Maldives. MDP accuses President Gayoom of fostering an irreligious culture.
  
• Competence of candidate: DRP accuses Anni of lack of experience, incompetency and inciting lawlessness. MDP counters by claiming it has a better team, and accuses Gayoom of being corrupt and a failure.
  
• Drugs: MDP accuses Gayoom of failing to curb the spread of drugs. DRP accuses Anni of being sympathetic to drug addicts.
  
• Past record: DRP claims it has an impressive development record. MDP dismisses it saying it is not enough compared to the opportunities and resources.
  
• Reforms: MDP claims the reforms of the past 4 years were due to their pressure. DRP says the reforms were initiated by President Gayoom.
  
• Development promises: In the second round of the election, manifestos have taken a backseat in both DRP and MDP camps.
  

Top reasons for voter preference, based on interviews:

• Personality: Most voters were not able to tell why they liked a particular candidate. Many people who voted for Gayoom said they simply liked him. Anni appears to be a bit behind Gayoom in this area. There are many people who say they would have voted for Hassan Saeed, had he been in the second round.
  
• Perceived sincerity and trustworthiness: More than the actual promises, most voters gave preference to how they thought each candidate will keep those promises. Interestingly voter decisions on the sincerity of a candidate were not based on any objective criteria, but subjective perception.
  
• Perceived competence: Capability of candidates was also decided by the voters based on subjective impressions. For example, while many voters thought Hassan Saeed was capable, few of them actually knew any details of his work.
  

[Note: this is not a scientific study and no claim is made for the accuracy of the findings.]

Wathan Edhenee Kon Team akah?

We have heard ad nauseam that MDP does not have capable leaders. Such a slight could have perhaps been plausible about a month back, before the party formed a coalition with Gaumee Itthihaad Party. And now with the formation of the 'Wathan Edhey Gothah…' coalition, the accusation borders on the ridiculous.

Today while the ruling team also has capable leaders, Wathan Edhey team can credibly match them man for man. To illustrate this, let us compare possible choices for some key cabinet positions. Such a comparison can only be hypothetical because the size and shape of the future cabinet is unlikely to be the same as at present, even if DRP wins the election. Further it is difficult to predict who will be offered cabinet posts and who will accept. Keeping these limitations in mind, here are some possible pairs.

Education:

• Dr. Waheed
  


• Zahiya Zareer
  

Health:

• Ilyas
  


• Dr. Aminath Jameel
  

Trade and Tourism

• Ali Hashim
  


• Yamin
  

Fisheries

• Dr. Hussein Rasheed
  


• Dr. Fathin Hameed
  

Islamic Affairs

• Mohamed Rasheed Ibrahim
  


• Dr. Abdul Majeed
  

Legal Reform:

• Mohamed Nasheed
  


• Dr. Hassan Saeed
  

Attorney General

• Azima
  


• Dhiyana Saeed
  

Justice

• Dr. Jameel
  


• Ahmed Zahir
  

Atolls

• Thasmeen
  


• Dr. Mustafa Luthfee
  

Finance

• Qasim
  


• Jihad
  

Environment

• Dr. Mausoom
  


• Dr. Mohamed Ali
  

External Affairs

• Dr. Shaheed
  


• Abdullah Shahid
  

Planning

• Hamdhoon Hameed
  


• Abdul Bari Abdullah
  

Youth

• Dr. Aishath Shiham
  


• Hamid Abdul Ghafoor
  

It's the people who will decide on the 28^th which team they want.

Note: The above is not an exhaustive list of all possible ministries or all possible candidates.

The Math – a few scenarios for swinging the votes!

Now that the first round of the election is over and everyone is gearing towards the run-off, just how big is it a task for the ruling party to swing the votes to attain a majority? I have made some assumptions on the possible scenarios on swinging the votes.

The first round showed that over 59% of the voters voted for a change in leadership. So in order for DRP to attain a majority in the run-off they will have to persuade at least over 20% of voters from each of the 3 candidates who have formed an alliance with MDP. Since IDP has bailed out of the coalition, I assume that at the most 50% will swing to DRP (may be unlikely but for argument sake). Also assuming that none of the DRP and MDP voter will swing any way, I present the following analysis (see table above).

Based on the above analysis with a 10%, 15% and 20% swing voters from each of the 3 aligning candidates give the following results (IDP swing is kept constant at 50% for above explained reasons for all calculations)

10% Swing
DRP: 78,774 votes (45%)
MDP Coalition: 97,793 votes (55%)

15% Swing
DRP: 81,678 votes (46%)
MDP Coalition: 94,889 votes (54%)

20% Swing
DRP: 84,581 votes (48%)
MDP Coalition: 91,986 votes (52%)

Question is, is it an attainable task to get such a drastic swing in the remaining couple of weeks? It is up to the voters to decide! And of course the final assumption is that the voter turn out should also remain equally high as the first round of the elections.

This analysis was presented by Ahmed Afaal, for the readers of this blog. He has his own blog (No politics) at http://afaal.blogspot.com/. As always I welcome contributions from the readers of this blog, which I will publish for the benefit of other readers and to keep this blog rich in content.

Whose agenda is it anyway?

“Nobody can give you freedom. Nobody can give you equality or justice or anything. If you're a man, you take it.” –Malcolm X (1925 - 1965)

"The reform agenda is mine," President Gayoom pronounced to his rivals on TVM's Riyasee Suvaalu program. Technically speaking, if he was merely referring to the "Reform Agenda" he announced on 9 June 2004, he would be right. But if he was referring to the whole reform movement that is in motion since 2003, that's a different story altogether.

Probably even Gayoom himself wouldn't go so far as to claim the entire reform movement as his own. Had that been the case ironically there would have been no need to announce the 'Reform Agenda' in 2004, as the agenda would then have started and progressed incrementally since 1978. So obviously there were others besides him who triggered the movement that culminated in the ratification of the Constitution on August 7. Who were they and what were their roles?

First wave of reform

With fresh faces elected to the Majlis in 1989, including Dr. Waheed, Gogo Latheef and Modi, new ideas took the Majlis by storm. Press freedom reached new heights simultaneously with the launching of three political magazines. The new found freedom was short lived, however. With the help of the infamous Bimbi Force, the movement was crushed and reformist MPs were evicted from the Majlis.

Mohamed Shafeeg (Editor) and Mohamed Nasheed (Anni) of 'Sangu' were charged and sentenced. So were the writers of Hukuru: Mohamed Saeed Moosa Wajdee, Mohamed Jaleel, Ahmed Waheed Ali, and Ahmed Fayaz Hassan.

Second wave

The second wave of reform started in the late 90s during the debates on Vision 2020. These debates marked a watershed in the reform process because it was the first time participants could openly criticize government policies in an official setting. This wave reached its climax in 2001 when a group of 43 intellectuals and professionals submitted a proposal for registering a political party. The group included names like Rado Zahir, Mujthaba, Qasim, Anni, Suood, Hathifushi Shakir, Hassan Afeef, Naushad Waheed, Alia Ali Abdulla, Ilyas Hussein, Maizan Hassan Maniku, Ahmed Muiz, Husna Razee, Abdullah Zameer, Zahiya Zareer, Mahmood Razi and Ali Faiz among others. The movement reached a dead end when the government on the advice of Attorney General Munavvar decided that the Constitution was not compatible with political parties.

Some significant events of the period included:

• The arrest and sentencing of Male MP Mohammed Nasheed on dubious charges;
  


• The launching of the internet magazine Sandhaanu and the ultimate arrest of Nazaki Zaki and Ibrahim Lutfee who ran the magazine.
  

Third Wave

Without any doubt the third and current wave of reform was heralded by the death of Evan Naseem in Maafushi prison in September 2003 and the shootings that followed. The massive outcry and the spontaneous demonstrations on the streets of Male changed the Maldives forever. Unlike its predecessors, the third wave of reform could not be stopped because of reasons including the following:

• The role of Mohammed Nasheed (Anni)'s charismatic leadership and unwavering commitment in mobilizing the young generation as agents of change;
  


• Successful formation of a political party, MDP, by a group of reformists spearheaded by Anni and Gogo Latheef;
  


• The effectiveness of Ahmed Shafeeq (Sappe)'s Dhivehi-Observer in communicating anti Gayoom messages to a broad Maldivian audience, thereby denting his media created image;
  


• Ibrahim Hussein Zaki, Latheef and Anni's success in bringing the reform movement to the attention of the international community, and the resulting pressure from that quarter;
  


• President Gayoom's launching of the 9^th June Reform Agenda, which put pressure on the government to stick to its timeline;
  


• The New Maldives movement, which brought reforms from within the government including Hassan Saeed's landmark ruling on political parties and accession to major international human rights conventions;
  


• Male Member Ibrahim Ismail's role in incorporating principles of liberal democracy into the draft Constitution;
  


• The effectiveness of opposition MPs including Afeef, Ibra, Reeko Moosa, Monaza Naeem, Suood, Ali Waheed, Sanco Shareef and others in articulating reforms on the Majlis floor;
  


• Qasim Ibrahim's leadership in steering the work of the Special Majlis to a fruitful conclusion;
  


• The willingness of the DRP majority in the Majlis to pass the reforms;
  


• Information Minister Nasheed's role in introducing a degree of media freedom;
  


• And above all, the resolve of ordinary Maldivians who within just five short years have become the most politically mature people in South Asia.
  

Author's note: In any list of honors, certain names inadvertently get left out. So let me apologize to them in advance. Let me also acknowledge the large number of people who wrote personal letters to President Gayoom urging him to launch reforms long before people poured out onto the streets and set the juggernaut rolling, letters that would haunt him as constant reminders of what could have been.

Election fever heating up in Huvarafushi

On approaching Huvarafushi the first thing one notices is the yellow painted walls of MDP office and the golden flag flying above in the island's azure sky. The election fever in Huvarafushi is not surprising. After all, it's the political heart of the north, in the same way Kulhudhuffushi is its commercial heart. Going back in time, the peoples of Huvarafushi and Kulhudhuffushi were the joint organizers of the historic Uthuru Arumaazu.

Going by external appearance –flags, colors, music, meetings –the MDP campaign is the strongest in the island. However, appearances can be deceptive. According to many people there is quite a brisk, albeit hidden, DRP campaign in the island. Jumhooree Party leader Qasim Ibrahim has family connections to the island through his wife, whose relatives are also active in the campaign as indicated by JP flags flying over their houses. Social Liberal Party has a relatively minor presence in the island. Despite their small numbers however, SLP contribution is significant, particularly in acting as a watchdog to prevent Civil Service members from campaigning.

Partly due to the high level of political awareness in Huvarafushi, most of the 2000 voters in the island are members of some party, though it is alleged that many of them 'joined' parties involuntarily when someone filled forms on their behalf, sometimes without their knowledge.

It is difficult to gauge how the people of Huvarafushi will vote on October 8^th. But many people believe the competition for the top spot will be between MDP and DRP. Current indications are that JP will be in a distant third position. This however could change dramatically when Qasim Ibrahim visits the island, most people say. Unlike in most other islands, Hassan Saeed's support in Huvarafushi appears small.

The people of Huvarafushi have a long list of grievances, which they expect the next president will solve for them. Here are a few of them as expressed by the people:

• The health center is ill equipped and ill staffed. People travel to Kulhudhuffhishi or Male for even minor health problems.
  


• The school is staffed with reject teachers from Male. Most of them lack teaching and class-control skills;
  


• The harbor, constructed some years back, has now become small and congested.
  


• Apart from some government jobs, there are no employment opportunities in the island. The only significant economic activity is fisheries, which itself is in decline and has become seasonal. Two Male-based companies operate fish processing facilities in the island.
  


• Unlike most high-population islands, the ground water in Huvarafushi is still relatively clean. However, most islanders believe the time has now come for laying a sewage system.
  


• The STELCO operated powerhouse is one service with which the people are happy.

Anni and Waheed: Are they the dream team?

Among the running mates announced so far, Anni's counterpart Dr. Mohammed Waheed Hassan is considered the best choice by commentators. The others, with the possible exception of Dr. Shaheed, have so far been liabilities. Unlike them, many people believe Waheed will boost Anni's winning chances.

Dr. Mohamed Waheed Hassan is the first Maldivian to obtain a PhD. In 1989 Waheed competed with Ilyas Ibrahim in the elections to the Majlis and won the Male seat with a higher majority. His popularity made Waheed a threat to the ruling classes, and soon he became a victim of the notorious Bimbi Force. He was compelled to resign his parliamentary seat and flee the Maldives.

After leaving the Maldives in the middle of 1992, Waheed has had a distinguished career in the international civil service, starting as the UNICEF head of education in Tanzania and winding up his career as Special Representative of the Secretary General.

On Wednesday MDP selected Waheed as Anni's running mate, a move that is considered very smart by most political analysts.

What Dr. Waheed brings to MDP:

• Waheed brings with him a wealth of government and international experience –experience that Anni lacks. Experts believe that Anni and Waheed complement each other's strengths and weakness and form a dream team;
• With a PhD from Stamford, Waheed is one of the most respected intellectuals in the country.
  

Waheed's weaknesses:

• He has been accused of running away from the Maldives when things don't go his way. Waheed however disagrees, saying he was forced to leave the Maldives under extreme pressure.
  
• He is considered a liberal, an image that may not go well with the conservative elements in the society.

Munavvar’s selection a tactical move

Quoting reliable sources, the local media reports that Gasim Ibrahim has selected Dr. Mohammed Munavvar as his running mate. This appears to be a tactical move by Jumhooree Party to establish a base in the South, following the failure of talks with another Addu person, Dr. Ugail.

Selecting a running mate from Addu will be helpful to Gasim's bid for the presidency, not just because Addu is the most populous atoll. Addu people have a disproportionately high influence on Maldivian politics because of two reasons. First, they are more politically conscious than people of other atolls. Second, they are more connected to the internet compared to most other atolls, which enables committed activists among them to launch web-based campaigns.

Munavvar was formerly the President of MDP, a post he won in an election last year, in which he prevailed over Ibrahim Hussein Zaki. However, this year he lost the party presidential primaries to Mohammed Nasheed (Anni). When Jumhooree party was launched, he resigned from MDP and joined the new party.

What will Munavvar bring to Jumhooree party from Addu? Judging from his showing in the past two polls, he does have a core of loyal supporters in the atoll. However, in a four-way contest with MDP, DRP and Hassan Saeed, the share of votes Jumhooree Party actually gets may be somewhat less than what either Gasim or Munavvar expects.

Despite this, all in all, Munavvar is likely be positive at least in Addu for Jumhooree Party, which currently does not have sufficient party cadres in Addu to launch an effective campaign. With Munavvar's appointment the Party can immediately put to use his core supporters, an important consideration given the shortage of time left for the election.

At the national level, things are more difficult to predict. Unlike Dr. Ugail, Munavvar comes to Jumhooree Party with a heavy load of baggage, some of that positive and some negative. Only time will tell which way the load will tip.

What would MDP Aneh Dhivehi Rajje feel like?

"A moment comes, which comes but rarely in history, when we step out from the old to the new, when an age ends, and when the soul of the nation, long suppressed, finds utterance." –Jawaharlal Nehru

MDP presidential candidate Mohammed Nasheed (Anni) echoed Nehru's famous 'Tryst with Destiny' speech in the opening of salvo of the Riyaasee Suvaalu debate, which he decisively won according to most viewers.

"There will be moments in a country's life," Anni said, "moments that change the country's situation from one state to another." He then went on to describe the current state where citizens daily face the rising cost of living, where one in five families live in a single room, and where people are forced to beg for health care. Anni then promised to take the country to the shores of Aneh Dhivehi Rajje.

But how would it feel like to live in Aneh Dhivehi Rajje? Anni painted quite a vivid picture of Aneh Dhivehi Rajje in his four brief statements during the debate. Perhaps it was the cohesiveness of this picture that enabled Anni to outscore his rivals, many of who were reputed orators. Here are the main elements of the picture:

• There will be clean government, with no place for authoritarian rule. This will be ensured through a competitive political process in a multiparty environment. Businessmen will not be allowed to pollute the political process.
  


• In Aneh Dhivehi Rajje, the government will be compassionate and listen to the concerns of the people. It will give priority to address these concerns.
  


• Reducing the cost of living will be the main thrust of economic policy. In Aneh Dhivehi Rajje, the cost of living will be affordable.
  


• People will not have to spend half their life waiting for a house in Aneh Dhivehi Rajje. Every citizen will have access to long term financing to own a home.
  


• In Aneh Dhivehi Rajje, a transport network will connect all islands. It will enhance trade by facilitating the transfer of services and goods from one island to the other.
  


• The people will not have to beg for healthcare in Aneh Dhivehi Rajje. All citizens will be covered under a health insurance scheme.
  


• In Aneh Dhivehi Rajje, the doors will be closed for drug smuggling. However, those who fall victim to drugs will be treated with compassion.
  


• The people will get the full benefit of national income from tourism and fisheries. This will be ensured, among other things, by reducing wasteful government expenditure.
  


• In Aneh Dhivehi Rajje, the government will develop the resources, equipment, people and facilities needed for tourism and fisheries.
  


• People will be empowered to stand on their own feet, generate income, and proudly help their own children, family and relatives.
  


• Citizens' human rights will be protected in Aneh Dhivehi Rajje. And the people will vote wisely to elect their government.

Who is the real Gasim?

"If I were to ask for anyone's help other than Allah's, I swear I'd ask for yours," Gasim Ibrahim wrote to Gayoom from his Dhoonidhoo cell, while imprisoned there following the August 12-13 incident of 2004.

"The Maldivian people know who fights for their rights and who doesn't," Gasim Ibrahim thundered to his supporters during his party's congress on 22 August 2008.

Was it the same Gasim who made these two statements, and if not which is the real Gasim? Fortune does not change men; it unmasks them. But sometimes people carry to such perfection the mask they have assumed that in due course they actually become the person they seem. So, has Gasim become the mask he wore?

Gasim's privately owned Villa Foundation awards about 150 scholarships to young Maldivians to pursue higher studies each year. Scholars are selected to the scheme on purely objective criteria, with no influence whosoever exercised by the Chairman. More than a 1000 students have benefited from this scheme so far. Gasim's welfare scheme has funded medical treatment abroad for 1000s of poor Maldivians. Most of them have never met Gasim. Was this a truly 'free lunch"?

These two philanthropic schemes rival, or perhaps even exceed, the corresponding Government schemes. Thus Gasim stands out as the philanthropist par excellence. Is this the real Gasim?

With his sponsorship of the 2001 petition signed by 40 intellectuals, Gasim is widely credited for the birth of the party system in the Maldives. He is rumored to be funding most opposition parties in the Maldives including MDP, IDP and Adaalath. On the other hand, he is also rumored to have funded the defection of prominent opposition MPs to DRP. Which of these roles, if any, did the real Gasim play? It's said that for some people there is more to life than just having everything. Is this true for Gasim?

Gasim is also widely credited to have led the constitutional amendment process to a successful conclusion. However, it is also alleged that the finally passed draft had many inconsistencies that Gasim could not prevent. In the process of removing these inconsistencies, it is also alleged he colluded with Ibra and AG Azima to introduce into the draft phrases and clauses never passed by the Majlis. What is the truth here?

As finance minister from mid 2005 to mid 2008, Gasim presided over the biggest budget fiasco in the history of Maldives, which diverted the country's fiscal course irreversibly towards bankruptcy. Did the budget fail because the trade minister and others failed to materialize the mega projects on which the budget depended, as Gasim alleges? Or did it fail because Gasim set rashly impractical targets and gambled with the country's economy?

Gasim's Villa Group currently owns about 15 % of all tourist beds in the country. The figure could even double when resorts currently under development are opened. With massive investments at Keekimini and Maandhoo, Gasim has a controlling interest in the fisheries industry. He also has similar controlling interests in the petroleum and LPG distribution industries. With investments in nearly all types of enterprises in the Maldives, Gasim is the capitalist par excellence. Is this the real face of Gasim?

In Senate confirmation hearings for constitutional posts in the United States, candidates are asked questions designed to bring out their attitudes and ideologies. The underlying belief is that people continue to hold and practice their old beliefs and ideologies in their new jobs, like the proverbial leopard, which does not change its spots. From Gasim's past actions can we predict what sort of president he would become?

Will he be a business friendly capitalist, or a pro-poor socialist with enough courage to introduce heavy taxation to fund social services? In other words, can he run with the hares while hunting with the hounds? Will he become the Lee Kuan Yu of Maldives running a clean administration or will he become the King Fahd of Maldives running a regime of favoritism? Will he become the selfless Mandela of Maldives or the monopolist Stanley Ho (the business tycoon who practically owns Macao) of Maldives? There are telltale clues in Gasim's track record to answer these questions with reasonable accuracy.

For 30 years Maldivians depended on the noblesse of a holy man to build their security. History tells us the outcome. For the next 10 years can they depend on the magnanimity of a philanthropist to build their security? Maldivians can choose their leader; destiny will choose the consequences.

["Destiny is a name often given in retrospect to choices that had dramatic consequences," – J. K. Rowling in Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone ]