Dream Merchants

Like a comet that makes it appearance at regular intervals and then disappears in a trail of dust, development projects keep appearing in the Maldives at 5 year periods. Technically speaking they range from the ludicrous to the bizarre and severely challenge the intelligence of the readers. The Moon Bay Marina project reported in Jazeera Daily is the latest in this series and hopefully the last.

Though the project hit the headlines only last week, its name 'Moon' Bay betrays that it was developed as an election ploy by former President Maumoon and his team of dream merchants. An animated video of the so-called project available in Metacafe would confirm this.

An intelligence defying feature of the project is its location in Vaadhoo Channel, which is inter-atoll sea and could be as deep as 1000 m just beyond the reef. A relatively more feasible idea included in the project is the famous bridge to Hulhumale.

Other famous 'dream projects' in the series include Villingili Resort, Ihavandhippolhu Transshipment Harbor and Gulhifalhu Global Business Park. Hulhumale also started as a dream project in 1993 and reappeared again in 1998. Surprisingly, in its third appearance in 2003 it defied the usual flow of events and became a reality, thus proving that some dreams do come true. So keep on dreaming.

Suicides: The Need for Community-based Mental Health Care

Suicides have a variety of ‘root’ causes. But undoubtedly the most important immediate cause of suicide is untreated depression. Given this fact, the recent spate of suicides in Male has focused attention on the state of mental health care in the Maldives.

There are only 4 psychiatrists working in the Maldives health services –all of them in IGMH working as outpatient doctors each seeing an average of 10 patients per day. There are no other categories of mental health care providers in the country. Now compare this with the need.

While there are many factors leading to severe depression that ends in suicide, the most important factor in the Maldives is drug addiction. If one includes all those who ever experimented with drugs, the number of drug abusers in the Maldives could go up to 30,000. But the number of hard-core drug addicts is much lower by most estimates –perhaps about 5,000. These 5,000 would need psychiatric attention now and then. However, it is fairly obvious that the 4 psychiatrists in IGMH will not be able to cater to such a large number of clients.

Faced with similar dilemma, many countries in Europe have opted for community-based mental health care, which is a low cost alternative to institution-based care, and is recommended by World Health Organization.

Under the community-based model, a range of mental health services can be provided through primary care facilities, backed up by access to specialists for training, consultation, inpatient assessment and specialist treatment. This link to specialists is of particular importance given that most mental health problems will be first seen in primary care, where the detection and management of common mental health problems such as depression remain poor. Effective training for primary care practitioners requires a combination of strategies, including access to information and liaison with and feedback from other health care professionals.

Community mental health teams (CMHTs) provide a range of services (including the contributions of psychiatrists, community psychiatric nurses, social workers, psychologists and occupational therapists), and usually give priority to adults with severe problems. Such teams have been shown to improve the individual’s engagement with services, to increase client satisfaction and improve concordance with treatment. They are also associated with improved continuity of care. At an individual level, case management can be used to coordinate a range of care and other services for an individual that will be provided by the CMHT.

Medhu Ziyaaray: Whose Tomb is it Anyway?

Few people doubt that the tomb enclosed in Male’s historic Medhu Ziyaaray belongs to the scholar who brought Islam to the Maldives in 1153. However his personal identity has been at the center of a historical controversy for the last 650 odd years.

Ibn Batutta who visited the Maldives about 200 years after the conversion claims to have seen a plaque in Male’s Friday Mosque saying that the scholar who brought Islam was Abul Barakat Yousef Al-Berberi. However the plaque that survived to modern times (could be a different plaque) gives the credit to Abur-Rikaab Yoosuf al Tabrizi. As their names suggest the two scholars (if indeed there were two) belonged to two different continents –Barbary was in North Africa and Tabriz in Iran (Asia). Interestingly Ibn Batutta was also a native of Barbary like Abul Barakat to whom he gives credit. To be fair to Ibn Batutta it must be said that due to the peculiarities of Arabic calligraphy, the two names appear much more similar in the the original Arabic than in the English transliteration. (See the photo of the historic plaque above.) So, Ibn Batutta could have been genuinely mistaken.

More recently a third claimant to the honor has surfaced in a historic manuscript, “Kitab fi Athaari Meedoo el-Qadimiyyeh” written by Allama Ahmed Shihabuddine of Midu in Addu Atoll in Arabic and translated into Dhivehi by Dhoondeyri Don Maniku son of Chief Justice Ibrahim Majduddine. The manuscript gives the credit to Yoosuf Gadir a scholar who first landed in Meedu, Addu Atoll.

A large number of people visited Medhu Ziyaaray, when it was opened to the public for the first time in recent history on Sunday. This was despite a warning not to visit the Ziyaaray issued by Adhaalath Party and echoed by Sheikh Mohamed Nasheed Adam in his Friday sermon at Masjid Mohamed Thakurufaanu Al Auzam.

Medhu Ziyaaray: Whose Tomb is it Anyway?

Few people doubt that the tomb enclosed in Male’s historic Medhu Ziyaaray belongs to the scholar who brought Islam to the Maldives in 1153. However his personal identity has been at the center of a historical controversy for the last 650 odd years.

Ibn Batutta who visited the Maldives about 200 years after the conversion claims to have seen a plaque in Male’s Friday Mosque saying that the scholar who brought Islam was Abul Barakat Yousef Al-Berberi. However the plaque that survived to modern times (an obviously different plaque) gives the credit to Shamsuddin al Tabrizi. As their names suggest the two scholars (if indeed there were two) belonged to two different continents –Barbary was in North Africa and Tabriz in Iran. Interestingly Ibn Batutta was also a native of Barbary like Abul Barakat to whom he gives credit.

More recently a third claimant to the honor has surfaced in a historic manuscript, “Kitab fi Athaari Meedoo el-Qadimiyyeh” written by Allama Ahmed Shihabuddine of Midu in Addu Atoll in Arabic and translated into Dhivehi by Dhoondeyri Don Maniku son of Chief Justice Ibrahim Majduddine. The manuscript gives the credit to Yoosuf Gadir a scholar who first landed in Meedu, Addu Atoll.

A large number of people visited Medhu Ziyaaray, when it was opened to the public for the first time in recent history on Sunday. This was despite a warning not to visit the Ziyaaray issued by Adhaalath Party and echoed by Sheikh Mohamed Nasheed Adam in his Friday sermon at Masjid Mohamed Thakurufaanu Al Auzam.

What’s the Purpose of Political Parties?

When the Constitution was being drafted in the Special Majlis, those who didn't have representation in the Majlis (all parties other than DRP and MDP) made a lot of noise that they must be involved in the process. But now that they actually got the chance to get elected and play a role in the legislature, they appear to have chickened out. This raises questions on what their role is in the democratic process, and whether the millions of tax payer's money spent on them is worth the while.

There are 11 political parties registered in the country, all getting state funds. But of them only two – MDP and DRP – are even contesting a majority of seats. Three others are contesting about 20 seats. The remaining parties are contesting 2 to 3 or no seats at all. What exactly do they plan to do in the political life of this country?

Cancelling EEZ Fishing Licenses: An Election Sop?

Members of the People's Majlis have called for immediate cancellation of licenses granted to foreign companies to fish in Maldives Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Notice the emphasis on the word 'immediate," which is surprising semantics, coming as it were from a Majlis which has already completed its 5-year term apparently oblivious to the EEZ issue, and which has just woken up Rip Van Winkle style.

Will the new policy remain merely symbolic like most such populist measures? The history of investment opportunities in the Maldives reserved for locals have not been very glorious. Most such opportunities end up in foreign hands, with a local 'owner' as a front. We would sincerely hope that those who spoke so vehemently in the Majlis yesterday won't become fronts for the next generation of foreign royalty holders. Look who's talking by clicking here.

Petition Politics

Since the introduction of democracy in the Maldives, the government has been facing a continuous barrage of petitions with demands varying from building harbors to removing strict bosses and investigating alleged corruption. But are petitions part of democracy?

In its long and perhaps extravagant list of fundamental rights, the Constitution of Maldives does not include petitioning. So, it’s not a right. However, Article 19 allows people the freedom to do anything that is not banned by a specific law. So, petitions are lawful.

Is there a role for petitions in the democratic setup? The Constitution gives sweeping powers to the executive to take decisions. It also gives the executive the power to hold referendums to get public opinion on important national matters. In other matters gathering public opinion is left to the discretion of the executive, presumably through the interactions of ministers with the public and through routine bureaucratic reporting systems.

Do petitions reflect public opinion accurately? This is doubtful because petitions are usually organized by a small but vocal minority. The others simply sign the petition to oblige the organizers.

In advanced democracies, political parties do not organize petitions. However lobbyists and NGOs do so to garner support for their causes. Thus petitions sponsored by political parties are perhaps unique to the Maldives. Perhaps this is because some of the local political parties are little more than NGOs, with little if any political base. Why the state must spend millions on ‘political parties’ which do not even contest a single Majlis seat is a different story altogether.

The question is, do petitions advance the course of democracy? Or, do they hinder true democracy by advancing narrow interests?

E-mail Hackers

A few hours back I received an urgent SOS e-mail message supposedly from a colleague of mine in the government. The message had come from her personal hotmail account and was signed her full real name. It read:

"Hello, I am in England for a seminar. I lost my wallet and am in urgent need of money to settle my hotel bill and other things. Can you urgently send me 2000 GB Pounds? When you reply to this mail I'll tell details of how to transfer the money…"

For a moment I thought this was a genuine message. Since the lady was a close friend and a very respectable person, I was thinking of how to send the money as soon as possible. In the process I had a second look at the message. It was then that I noticed two things wrong with it. One, the message simply started with 'hello' without my name. Two, if she was in urgent need of money why didn't she write transfer details in the original message? That would have saved time.

These two things were telltale signs of junk or fraud mail. So I decided to telephone her to see if she was really in the UK. I dialed her home number in Male (not mobile) and she took the phone at the second ring. She was shocked to hear the story.

These days a lot of hackers get into people's accounts and do all sorts of crazy things. One of the commonest ways of doing this is to lure unwary victims to submit e-mail account details to bogus questionnaire forms. Of course there are many new innovations and methods. We can't be too careful.

Investigating the Former Regime

Investigating a former regime is always tricky business. It invites accusations of vendetta and witch hunting. This is particularly so in the Maldives where historically such investigations have not been very fair. This may be the reason why so far no attempt has been made to bring to justice the alleged crimes of the previous government.

There are pros and cons of bringing former regimes to justice. One view is that it would help prevent future crimes by cautioning those in corruptible positions that they would also be brought to book one day. An opposing view is that the process of investigating former regimes often turns political, leading to social tensions.

Whatever the end results, justice –if it needs to be done –must be done without delay. Articles 50 and 51b of the Constitution guarantees the right to prompt justice even to the accused. Perhaps it is because of this that Member of Majlis and Chairman of Judicial Services Commission Hassan Afeef has recently announced that investigations will soon be launched against the activities of the former regime. Read details here.

Crime and Capital Punishment

"I inherited the job from my late father. At first, I used to accompany him. On my first mission, I was terrified. I wasn't afraid that the execution would fail. No. I was worried that if I failed, the people there would laugh at me," Saudi executioner Abdallah Al-Bishi told the interviewer in a program aired on Abu Dhabi TV recently. "Once the mission is done, I feel relieved. I come home relaxed. I play with the children. We have fun. We have lunch. Sometimes we go out. Other times, we stay at home. Everything is normal. It has no effect on me."

Sometimes his children also join him. "We sit with him and have fun together. Sometimes, we join him for an execution. The first time I went there, I was frightened. When the first guy was executed, I stood a bit towards the back, but when I saw that there was nothing to it, and that there was no reason to be afraid, I came in closer to watch. There was no problem," Al-Bishi's son told the TV audience.

Capital punishment is practiced for murder in several countries of the world. According to Amnesty International statistics, a total of 1,200 people were executed throughout the world in 2007. Of these 523 executions took place in four Middle East countries: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Iraq.

What are the results? The graph above compares the murder rates (in number of murders per 100,000 population per year) of Iran and Saudi Arabia with those of selected Middle East and industrialized countries (source: Wikipedia). The graph speaks for itself.

Taxes: Finding the next perch before flying off

Customs duty is regressive, riddled with corruption and against free-trade treaties. It may be all that and more; but there is one thing that cannot be denied about Customs duty: It works. For the past three decades it has been a steady and reliable source of income contributing about a third of total government revenue. It is doubtful whether any of the alternatives – corporate tax, income tax or value added tax – would measure up to this standard.

The success of Customs duty depends on its simplicity. Almost all goods entering the Maldives pass through Male airport and seaport, making it rather simple to detect all dutiable goods using a relatively small number of staff. Because of this the percentage of revenue recovery was high, despite the legendary corruption.

Compared to this, all the alternative taxes would require officials to cover a very large number of revenue generating outlets and scrutinize their accounts. Checking all retail shops in the country for VAT would be particularly cumbersome, while checking the company accounts for profits would be technically challenging. Income tax would be particularly worrisome for government staff because they are the only category of people who cannot underreport their income.

In view of these challenges, the combined revenue from these sources could be considerably lower than customs duty. So, one must think twice before replacing customs duty.

Censoring Names

Names given to newborn children are whetted by the relevant authority in the Maldives. It appears that only certain types of Arabic names pass the litmus test, and authorities are rather successful in enforcing them at the birth certificate level. But unfortunately for them this control is almost totally lost by the time the child enters teenage. After that we only hear names like Gaburu Ayya, Natay, Boddu, Kukulhay, Rattay, Bakattaa** and other even more interesting sounds.

In the 1970s and before, it was common to have truly Dhivehi names like Dhon Didi, Kalhu Thutthu, Lahuttu, Tutteedi, Kudamaniku etc. But during the 1980s when the ID card was introduced such names were systematically eliminated and replaced with Arabic names. At the same time, the process of whetting newborn names was introduced. In the early days of this process Persian and Urdu names were allowed. Thus there are lots of girls named Shalinee and Sharmeela. However, more recently such names have also got the axe.

If one looks at naming traditions across the Islamic word, one could see a lot of variety. Iran and Afghanistan have their own distinct flavor of names. In Pakistan and Bangladesh it is quite common to hear names like Naik, Chowdhary, Beewi and Begum. In the largest Muslim country, Indonesia, it is rarely that one hears an Arabic name. Even in Arabic countries there are many common names that are likely to be rejected by the Maldivian authorities.

Interestingly, in those countries nicknames like Kattay, Kurappay and Burito** are not that common. Why is that?

[** If any of these names resembles a real person's name, it is purely coincidental. Sincere apologies are offered for any inconvenience caused.]

The Age of the Stupid?

If we had a film of the legislative events of the time of Maldives’ first Constitution (circa 1932), one would be tempted to label the period as the ‘Age of the Stupid.’ A legislative committee was working overtime to produce all sorts and manners of laws, which were becoming increasingly more difficult for citizens to bear. Thoroughly fed-up with the laws, the people of Male (‘Havaru’) came out on the streets, tore the laws and banished the legislators. More than 75 years after the episode we have a new Constitution and a sense of Déjà vu is permeating the atmosphere. Another Age of the Stupid?

In 1932 the Legislative Committee drafted laws to cover ‘monumental’ issues such as fire crackers (Lonumedhu Fataas), demolishing public wells on Male waterfront, cutting trees and 40 other similar topics. Visitors to Male soon found they had no place to take a bath. Boat owners found out that they couldn’t get timber to repair their dhonis. In short, the ill conceived laws made life impossible for the people.

After 75 years, today the new Constitution has given an endless list of rights, of which criminals are taking full advantage. A labor law is creating tension in the workplace and draining the government budget. A civil service law has led to loss of job security for hundreds of public servants. An information law is putting government officials in the dilemma of being legally obliged to provide information which is not readily available.

Looking at the legislative ‘masterpieces’ of today, future generations may be tempted to label the era as another Age of the Stupid.

An Office for the Prosecutor General

After wandering in the wilderness for six months, Prosecutor General’s Office has finally got its promised office building. But don’t expect miracles. The criminal justice system in the Maldives is a zero sum game. If the load on one entity of the system reduces by a number ‘x’, there will be concurrent increases in the loads on other entities, the sum of which will equal ‘x’.

Here is how this works. There is a pool of criminals in the Maldives, roughly estimated at about 14,000. Of these only a thousand are in the jail or the rehabilitation center. The remaining 13,000 are unequally distributed among the community (undetected), police (under investigation), Prosecutor General’s Office, the courts (under trial) and banishment.

If the police detect more criminals the number in the community will decrease but the number under investigation will increase by the same number. If the police complete more investigations, the number at the PG Office will increase. If PG Office prosecutes more cases the number in the courts will increase. If the courts sentence more people the number in the jail will increase.

The truth is that none of the institutions in the criminal justice system has sufficient resources to handle the estimated 14,000 criminals in the country. So what can be done?

1. Build more jails? This is not a financially viable solution. Maintaining enough jails to imprison all criminals would cost more than the entire national income.
2. Islamic Justice? This means capital punishment. There are many who call for this. But when it comes to executing one’s own sons and near ones they will sing a different tune.
3. Revise penal code? This could reduce the load on the system by reducing the number of categories needing jailing (others can go for community sentences and probation) and reducing the length of jail terms.
4. Revising Drug Law? Sending first time offenders for detoxification instead of jail could reduce the load on jails.
5. Enforcing discipline at the school level? This would require overhauling of the law on the rights of children.

Bandos Strike: More than Deen’s Personal Tragedy

Bandos owner Mohammed Waheed Deen's financial losses from the recent strike in the luxury resort could run into millions. But the emotional hurt he suffered from the sense of betrayal of trust and love is inestimable. A generous philanthropist, Deen is more than an exemplary employer. He has been a father figure for Bandos staff and considers them part of his extended family. Thus the episode would be a personal tragedy for Deen. But the tragedy is not his alone; it is part of a deeper national malady.

Businesses run on trust. Political systems run on respect for authority. But today in the Maldives, these core values are going down in a death spiral, threatening to take the country to the very brink of anarchy. The effect of this on the workplace, both private and government, has been particularly disastrous.

With eroding respect for authority, discipline and work ethics have suffered. Any supervisor who attempts to take remedial measures against sloppy employees becomes the target of petitions for removal. Managements are frequently forced to fire hard working employees, even if nothing wrong can be proved against them. Such employees lose their rights enshrined in the Employment Act.

Bandos Island resort workers held mass demonstrations after a petition submitted by 303 staff calling for dismissal of company lawyer Zeshan Shihab was rejected by Deputy Managing Director Shezny Deen. The protesters accused Zeshan of harming their relations with the company and its owner.

A visibly shaken Deen has said he had never imagined his employees would treat him the way they did. Despite his personal conviction that Zeshan had done nothing wrong, he had no choice but to accept her resignation.

With Zeshan's resignation the strike has ended. But the question is: What does this signal to the business sector? How does it fit in with today's buzz word, 'corporate governance'?

Pointless Primaries

In recent party primaries for parliamentary seats, many winning candidates scored less than 100 votes. This is trivial, considering that a typical Majlis constituency averages about 5000 population and 3500 voters. The result would also be statistically insignificant because there is no valid sampling technique involved in the primaries to include the many subsets of voters in the constituency with varying backgrounds and beliefs. As such, the results of the primaries are unlikely to be predictive of the winning chances of a candidate. So it is not surprising that many losing candidates opt to fight the elections anyway as independent candidates.

The latest incident of this nature involves former Male Atoll member Donad Adam Fulhu's decision to contest the Gaafaru-Kaashidhoo seat of Male Atoll, despite losing the primaries to former Higher Education Minister Ibrahim Hassan (Chubby). The latter has reportedly left the fray in a huff. The case of former Information Minister Nasheed deciding to contest the Kulhudhuffushi South seat is somewhat different because he opted not to take part in the primaries, but his reasons to go it alone are probably similar.

This phenomenon is not limited just to DRP. Ruling party member and sitting MP Sanco Shareef has also decided to contest a Maafannu seat despite losing the primaries to Falah. This is not an isolated case as many other losing candidates from the party are rumored to be contesting.

What's interesting is that in most cases the 'rebel' candidates appear to be leading the 'official' candidates. The words 'rebel' and 'official' are enclosed within inverted commas here because there are reasons to believe that many of the so-called rebel candidates have the political and financial backing of senior party leaders. This is exactly what Chubby alleged in his statement while withdrawing from the contest. This phenomenon is also not limited just to DRP.

So, is there any point in holding party primaries? After all, neighboring countries like India do not hold primaries. Of course the Americans do. The question is: are we closer to India or to the US in terms of voter awareness and openness?

Will Regionalization Reverse the Trend of in-Migration? (2)

Follow up to article of same title published in February 2009.

Fehendhoo joins the migration queue
The original article argued that most of the roughly 30 islands that have populations below 250, would soon request for relocation. The reason put forward was that when the population falls below a certain critical level (probably 250 in the Maldives context) basic services become unsustainable even with subsidization. When that happens the islanders would request for relocation. Fehendhoo, South Maalhosmadulu Atoll, is the latest island to join the migration queue.

Island populations nose-diving
At the time of the latest Census in 2006, Fehendhoo had 114 people living on the island. The number has now declined to 64 in just three years. (This figure must not be confused with the registered population of 206, most of who live in Male). This shows that the population figures of small islands are trapped in a death spiral.

No basic services
According to Haveeru Daily 43 households in the island have requested for relocation to Gan, Haddhunmathi Atoll. It’s not difficult to guess that most of these 43 households would comprise just one person, probably over 65. The reasons put forward for relocation are the usual: lack of development opportunities, lack of education. Last year the island school closed because there were no students.

Serious Allegations against Former Ministers

Dhivehi Observer (DO) has exposed alleged unexplained payments from the Defense Ministry to former ministers Hamdhun and Ahmed Nazim. (http://doreview.blogspot.com/2009/03/leaked-documents-from-defence-ministry.html ) Many people believe that if these ‘special expenditures’ were actually made, they could have had something to do with the violent mobs that attacked political gatherings. So far, the concerned ministers have made any no denials. This has led to further speculation.

The following is a chronology of events that occurred around the time the alleged payments were made. This blog wishes to make it very clear that this chronology does not in any way suggest or claim that the events mentioned have any relationship to one another.

30 April 2005: MDP Chairman Mohamed Nasheed arrives in the Maldives from his self exile, to strengthen party activities. On arrival in Male his entourage was attacked by thugs near IGMH.

4 May 2005: Hamdhun Hameed (allegedly) receives Rf 110,000 from the Defense Ministry for undisclosed ‘special’ expenditure.

6 May 2005: Thugs go on rampage in Esjehi Gallery and Al Fresco, and threatening the owners with dire consequents if they continue to serve MDP Chairman and his supporters.

8 May 2005: Authorities erect floodlights to prevent MDP from gathering at West Park area.

12/13 August 2005: Reformists plan prolonged rally in Republic Square to mark the first anniversary of Black Friday rally . Thugs disrupt rally.

16 August 2005: Ahmed Nazim (allegedly) receives Rf 20,000 from the Defense Ministry for undisclosed ‘special’ expenditure.

Are Video Gamers more Violent?

A salesgirl in a typical CD shop in Male says they sell on average about 30 video game CDs per day. There could be about 100 such shops in Male. Just start multiplying and the results would be mindboggling: 3000 games sold per day, 90,000 in a month and 1,080,000 in a year.

Video games are popular in Male because of several reasons. One, there is no space in the island for outdoor games for all. Two, parents are scared of sending children to outdoor activities because of the drug menace. Three, some forms of entertainment like music and dance are frowned upon by conservatives. Four, many parents think video games are harmless entertainment for kids.

But are video games really harmless?

A new study employing state-of-the-art brain-scanning technology says that the answer may be no. Researchers say that brain scans of kids who played a violent video game showed an increase in emotional arousal – and a corresponding decrease of activity in brain areas involved in self-control, inhibition and attention.

This brings us to the question: is there a link between the violence we see today on Male streets and video games like, "Call of Duty," and "Medal of Honor: Frontline?" While researchers have seen negative effects in the brains of kids who play these games, such results cannot be extrapolated to the Male situation without doing specific research here.

What about non violent games? Could there be a link between non-violent but high-octane games like "Need for Speed: Underground" and "Gran Turismo?" and the increasing spate of accidents on Male streets and Addu Link Road? Again country specific research is needed to establish such a link.

For now, based on available scientific evidence, parents should be aware of the relationship between violent video-game playing and brain function.

Child Right’s Law and Juvenile Delinquency

Since 1991, when the Law on the Rights of Children was passed, crimes among children under 18 have skyrocketed. There are reasons to believe that this increase is not a mere coincidence and that the law is at least partially responsible for the rising trend of juvenile delinquency. Why then did the Maldives pass such a law and what have been its effects on criminal activity among children?

Maldives probably passed the law under pressure from international organizations. What gives credence to this belief is that the country was not institutionally ready then or even now to implement some key provisions of the law. For example, Article 9 of the Law requires a separate juvenile justice system to deal with children who break the law (See below). Similarly Article 8 requires rehabilitative services for children who misbehave on the streets and public places. In 1991 the state had neither the physical facilities nor the human resources to implement these 2 Articles. In fact after more than 17 years, even today it doesn’t have.

It is generally perceived by both adults and children that juvenile offenders are free to commit to any crime and walk scot free. There are also reports of adults using children to commit crimes such as drug peddling, because children could escape the law easily. However, government agencies charged with the responsibility of implementing the Child Rights Law deny this, saying there are provisions in the law to deal with juvenile offenders. So what’s the truth? One could see the answer in Article 29 (b), which says crimes committed by children must be handled by the juvenile justice system described in Article 9. Of course, we all know that this juvenile justice system does not exist. Therefore crimes committed by children go unpunished.

Who is responsible for this sorry state of affairs?
Should the blame go to child rights officials who proposed a law for which the country was not ready?

Should we question the Majlis whether, before passing the law, they ascertained if it was implementable and whether resources were available for it?

Why didn’t the state develop the facilities and human resources required to implement Articles 8 and 9 of the Law even after 17 years?

Some selected Articles of Law 9/91
8. [The Government] must take steps to rehabilitate children who misbehave and break rules on the street and in public places. The Government must take, within its means, appropriate corrective measures to reform and discipline those who are not improved by these steps.

9. [The Government] must establish a separate [juvenile justice] system to study, investigate, try and punish, where necessary, crimes committed by children. And in cases of crimes committed by children who have not attained the burden of responsibility (non ‘mukallafu’) priority must be given to rehabilitate the children instead of punishing them.

29. (a). In case of a legal or sharia crime committed by a person considered a child under this law, if the child is mukallafu (attained the burden of responsibility) he/she must bear the responsibility for the crime.
29. (b). In case of children who must take legal or sharia responsibility under this article, the investigation, trial and punishment must be conducted through the system mentioned in article 9.

Back Spinning the Discos

Ministry of Islamic Affairs says there are discos operating in the capital Male. The Ministry says they operate during weekends but didn’t say where. Minister Dr. Abdul Majeed Abdul Bari has revealed that he plans to hold discussions with law enforcement agencies to stop them, according to Voice of Maldives (VOM).

There are different ways of shaping behavior. One is behavior change communication (BCC). Another is force or the threat of force. Since according to the VOM report the minister is consulting law enforcement agencies and not NGOs and the media, it appears that he has chosen the latter option.

Using force against social practices could be like back spinning –a technique used by DJs to make a vinyl disc momentarily spin backwards through applying force. The back spin is only momentary because the underlying turntable platter keeps rotating in the original direction and would take the disc forwards the moment the DJ releases his fingers.

Fishermen’s Demonstration

The beauty of democracy is that one is free to demand anything anytime anywhere, irrespective of whether the demand is reasonable or feasible. The IDP sponsored* fishermen's demonstration last weekend is a superb example of democracy in action.

One thing must be said about IDP President Umar Naseer. He sure knows how to organize a demonstration on a shoe string budget. Most of his demonstrations last year would have just incurred the cost of hiring a couple of pickups for 2-3 hours, printing a few sets of banners and hosting tea for about 30 to 40 guys going on the lorry ride. This was a much more cost-effective way of getting publicity than the rallies held by MDP and the meetings organized by DRP. It is also a lot safer than swimming through speed launch infested seas from Male to Villingilli, a technique he used earlier before discovering the current method.

From IDP standards, the fisherman's demonstration was huge. Full 8 vessels took part in the flotilla. This rather impressive attendance might of course have something to do with the fact that Friday is a holiday for fisherman. But never mind.

From an academic point of view the results of the demonstration was spectacular. Some of the participants rediscovered the theory of supply and demand, more than 200 years after Adam Smith described it in his Wealth of Nations. "When we catch more fish the price goes down; when we catch less the price goes up," a young participant said.

Umar's main demand was to empower fishermen to set their own prices. He does have a point here. Currently the market is a buyer's market where a cartel of monopolists decides the price because they are better organized with more resources. Fishermen could get better prices if they had collective bargaining power.

On the other hand, Umar's demand for base prices of Rf 45/kg for yellow fin tuna and Rf 10/kg for skipjack may not be feasible without government subsidies. The question is can the Maldives afford more subsidies in the present economic crisis?

There is one more thing you can say about IDP President Umar Naseer. He has steadfastly fulfilled the role of a responsible opposition party during both DRP and MDP rule. In fact during the first three months of MDP rule he played this role almost single handedly, in the process winning the hearts of a small niche audience.

[*Note: On Saturday IDP members left the scene of demonstration after participating fishermen requested them to do so, as they did not want to politicize their demonstration.]

How to Stop the Drug Wars

On February 9, the world celebrated the first centenary of the first-ever international effort against drug control when, meeting in Shanghai, they agreed to set up the International Opium Commission. In 1998 the UN General Assembly committed member countries to achieving a "drug-free world" and to "eliminating or significantly reducing" the production of opium, cocaine and cannabis by 2008. Even as ministers from around the world are gathering in Vienna this week to set international drug policy for the next decade, the prestigious magazine Economist has written an op-ed highlighting the futility of this exercise (http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13237193&source=hptextfeature ).

The article heavily criticizes the promise politicians often make of 'eliminating' drugs, saying it is a hugely irresponsible promise, because it cannot be fulfilled. Criticizing policy makers, the article says, like first-world-war generals, many will claim that all that is needed is more of the same. In fact the war on drugs has been a disaster, creating failed states in the developing world even as addiction has flourished in the rich world. By any sensible measure, this 100-year struggle has been illiberal, murderous and pointless. That is why The Economist continues to believe that the least bad policy is to legalize drugs.

But as a 100% Islamic nation Maldives will never accept legalization. So, we shall fight drugs. "We shall go on to the end … we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our Island, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets … we shall never surrender."*

Read the original article at:

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13237193&source=hptextfeature

[*The quotation is from the famous speech of Winston Churchill at the House of Commons on 4^th June 1940]

What if STELCO Packs up?

What if STELCO packs up? Such an eventuality is not as farfetched as one might believe. Established in 1949, and boasting a checkered history, the company has been on financial intensive care since 2006. By the end of 2008 it ran up a massive debt of an estimated Rf 928 million, with no apparent solution for the impasse. If the 60-year-old company goes out of business, it would not be just symbolic. Life would simply grind to a halt for STELCO's 40,000 customers. How did the prestigious company end up in these dire straits?

Low level of investment:

STELCO has not made any significant investment in production infrastructure –not just during the last 3 years when the company has been running at a loss, but even earlier when it was making profits. The installed capacity is just 30.5 MW. With about 1250 kWh per capita, electricity consumption in Male is perhaps the lowest in the Indian Ocean area, and compares unfavorably with Sri Lanka (3000 kWh per capita) Mauritius (12,000 kWh per capita) and Seychelles (40,000 kWh per capita).

STELCO uses 13 diesel generators to produce electricity in Male. Of these, apart from 2 sets of 6 MW each, the others are relatively small. The total capacity of these generators (30.5 MW) is barely enough to cater to Male'. Further, STELCO has no reserve capacity and when a generator develops a fault or needs servicing, power outages are unavoidable. Often in the hot early months of each year, generators get overheated resulting in load shedding.

In fact, in recent years it has been routine for STELCO to issue public announcements during the hot first quarter of the year, requesting customers to minimize electricity consumption. This was the case in March 2007, as also in March 2008. On the latter occasion the company warned that power consumption would soon exceed capacity. Even in February this year there was a blackout in Male' lasting more than 2 hours, when one of the 6 MW generators developed a fuel leak, spraying the other generators in the vicinity.

Rising fuel costs:

STELCO was making a decent profit till 2003, when the price of diesel was below Rf 4. But since then its balance sheet and profits have been hit by skyrocketing fuel costs resulting from escalating global oil prices. In May 2008, when the global crude oil prices shot above $ 140 per barrel, State Trading Organization (STO) raised their diesel price to Rf 15.50 per liter. Diesel prices have since come down just below Rf 7.00 in February 2009.

During 2008 budget discussions, former STELCO Managing Director Abdul Shakoor had informed People's Majlis that 1 liter of diesel produces just 3.5 or 3.6 units of electricity. This meant that when diesel prices were at Rf 15.50, the fuel cost of producing 1 unit of electricity was Rf. 4.42. At a diesel price of Rf 7.00 the fuel cost would be 2 rufiyaa per unit. To this one would have to add labor and fixed costs to calculate the actual production cost.

In fact, from 2006 onwards STELCO was making losses and by July 2008 the company was losing a whopping Rf 1.96 million per day. According to a statement made by STELCO at the time, the company was losing Rf 3.19 per unit of electricity consumed. This was understandable because most of the electricity consumed in Male was being billed at Rf 1.60 or Rf. 1.70 per unit.

Political interference:

For political reasons, STELCO was not allowed after 1990 to increase its tariffs despite runaway inflation and rising fuel costs. In fact the prices were lowered from Rf 2 to 1.60 for the lowest bracket of home consumption and Rf 3.50 to 3.15 for the lowest bracket of commercial consumption.

Also for political reasons, STELCO was made to establish or takeover loss making power stations in 27 islands and subsidize them. Before 2006, the subsidy came from the profits of STELCO's operations in Male. However, since Male operations have also been making losses since then, the subsidy now comes from the government budget. From 2007, a subsidy of 200 million rufiyaa was allocated for Male and 100 million for the other islands. However, from the discussion above one could see that these are grossly inadequate sums.

Delay in Upgrading:

Stelco proposed the Fourth Power Development Project in 2005 to increase electricity production capacity. Funded with grant and loan assistance from Denmark, the Project involves installing two new sets of generators of each 8 MW capacity, bringing the total production capacity in the capital to 49 MW. After considerable delays a Rf 540 million contract was finally signed with a German-Danish consortium in October last year. Work on the project is expected to start soon.

The future:

The volatility of the global oil market during the last couple of years underscores the unreliability of a fossil fuel based power supply system in a country like the Maldives. Exploring renewable sources of energy is thus an imperative. With recent developments in wind power and solar power technologies, these are no longer impractical solutions.

Wind turbines of over 1 MW capacity are now quite common in Europe. According to some experts wind speeds above the 8m/s velocity required for wind power are available in the north and south extremes of the country.

Similarly solar plants with over 8 MW capacity are in operation in Europe and a 140 MW plant is under construction in Australia. These newer plants use sunlight concentration techniques that reduce land area requirements to less than 1% of what traditional solar panels use. A 14 meter solar dish using this technology could have a capacity of 35 kWh.

Maldives Gas has been operating experimental wind and solar power stations in three islands, Haa Alifu Uligamu, Meemu Raiymandhoo and Gaafu Alifu Konday of Atoll. Further studies will be required to see if these power stations are successful.

Is Democracy the Best Choice for Maldives?

In the August 2007 referendum Maldivians had the choice of deciding between parliamentary form of multi-party democracy and presidential form of multi-party democracy. Rejecting multi-party democracy was not an option. Had that choice been given, history could have perhaps taken a different course.

Democracy is like the proverbial sacred cow, any criticism of which is taboo. Most educated Maldivians, ardent democrats all, would like to believe that democracy is not merely good in itself, but also valuable in enhancing the process of development.

Correlation between democracy and development inconclusive
Despite the blind trust people have in democracy, empirical studies of the correlation between democracy and development are ambiguous. Sirowy and Inkeles (1991) report a negative relationship, while Campos (1994) report a generally positive relationship between democracy and development. Przeworski and Limongi (1993) don’t believe there is any correlation between the two, either positive or negative.

Much was made of the contrast in development between the largely authoritarian East Asia and democratic South Asia over the 1960’s, 1970’s and the 1980’s. Over these three decades average economic performance, both in terms of per capita income growth and human development index, has been substantially better in the former region than in the latter.

This makes it very tempting to jump to the conclusion that authoritarian rule (the benevolent dictator) is better for development. But instead, it might be more prudent to analyze the institutional factors that underlie development.

Enforcing property rights
It is a staple of the new institutional economics literature that a basic pre-condition of development is a minimum legal and contractual structure and a set of well-defined and enforced property rights; the general presumption in this literature is that democracy is better-suited in providing this environment.
However, if one studies the history of enforcing property rights in the Maldives over the past half century, one could clearly see that property rights were far better guaranteed under Nasir’s authoritarian rule, than in the last 5 years of relatively more democratic rule. In fact, the history of enforcing landed property rights during the last term of President Gayoom has been marred by widespread allegations of corruption in litigation and non enforcement of court decisions. Such allegations were unheard of during Nasir’s regime.

Rule of law
Democracy may be ideologically more hospitable to rule of law, but it is the predictability rather than legal accountability that is really at stake here, and it is not always clear that an authoritarian regime cannot provide a framework for a predictable set of contracts. Over the last three decades, for example, the first family in Indonesia and the KMT leadership in Taiwan had provided a reasonably predictable and durable (even though corrupt) contractual environment for private business to thrive, without the procedural formalities of a democracy. This is also true by and large for the regime of President Nasir during the 60s and 70s.

On the other hand, in some democratic regimes in spite of the existence of an admirable legal contractual structure on paper, the courts are hopelessly clogged. This is true not only in countries like India, but also in the Maldives during the last 5 years.

In countries like the United States, enforcement of laws may be better than in developing countries, but the process of enactment of those laws is subject to an enormous amount of influence peddling for contributions to campaign finance. The recent bill introduced in the Maldives Majlis to enhance the tenure of resort islands to 50 years is an interesting parallel.

Populist pressure
Not all cases of public pressure are good for development either. Democracies may be particularly susceptible to populist pressures for immediate consumption and unproductive subsidies that may hamper long-run investment and growth. In the case of Maldives, building harbors and secondary schools in thinly populated islands are notorious results of such public pressure.

Criminalization of politics
A more disturbing sign of politicization of the internal organization of the government in a democracy is indicated by the systematic erosion of the independence of the police and the criminal justice system that is slowly creeping in some states of North India. A significant number of elected politicians in these states are crime bosses or their accomplices, who have figured out that once elected on a ruling party ticket they can neutralize the police who will not press or pursue.

On the other hand, in non-democratic China the local Communist Party officials have sometimes been quite responsive to local needs as the comparative study of two villages in China and India by Dr`eze and Saran (1995) show in the context of China’s far better performance in the provision of primary education at the local level.

Many Maldivians not sure if democracy is best
From the beginning of Utheemu Dynasty (since when detailed records are available) to the end of Huraagey Dynasty, Maldivians have had a unique system of governance, which though a monarchy was quite different from the run-of-the-mill hereditary monarchies of Europe and Asia. Imposed from outside, democracy was introduced quite recently in 1932. There are many Maldivians who still doubt if multi-party democracy is best for them.

The Young Generation: Quo Vadis?

"Secondary school pupils in Laamu Hithadhoo block teachers from classes," a headline in Jazeera Daily caught my attention yesterday. The paper quoted Hithadhoo School's Assistant Principal Mohammed Ibrahim saying that pupils have been barring teachers from entering classrooms since Tuesday.

According to Mohammed Ibrahim the students are agitating because they have had no economics teacher since last year. He believed parents were encouraging the students to strike. Most parents failed to turn up for a meeting called by Mohammed Ibrahim to discuss the issue.

From this incident it is obvious that the students and their parents believe their main problem is lack of an economics teacher. But perhaps a bigger issue is their lack of discipline. The parents' role is equally disappointing.

The school system of Maldives is bloated well beyond all available human and financial resources. And to top all this, we are faced with a national and a global economic crisis.

Is agitation the answer to all our problems? Is this the lesson we want to teach the younger generation?

Doctors aren’t Saints

By Dr. Faisal Saeed

A man goes to the doctor with an ailment. The doctor cures this ailment and asks to be paid. The man refuses to pay, saying that by virtue of having become a doctor, doctors have special moral obligations to patients and the society and asking for payment for his services brings into question his humanity, his morals and the oath to honor the profession. He goes on to caution that such demands would ruin the faith of the public in the profession and portray doctors as being inconsiderate and materialistic.

It is unfortunate that the current strike by doctors is viewed in such a perspective that a strike is incompatible with the medical profession. It is disappointing that the Human Rights Commission denounced the strike by suggesting that doctors were trying to hold to ransom the rights of patients for material gain, when it wasn't so. The strike was limited in that doctors attended emergencies and care was provided for inpatients. As advocates of human rights the commission should rather question why policy makers allow unnecessary suffering of patients by improper allocation of healthcare resources.

While it is true that doctors have special obligations to his patients and society, a person who chooses to become a doctor does not make any declaration, implicit or explicit, that he/she will abstain from trying to make his/her life as fulfilling as possible and like any other individual they too have the right to pursue happiness. The actions of doctors should be judged by the same standards as those used for other professionals. When the Civil Service Commission fails to provide a just payment for their services, it is unfair to suggest that doctors should work under any circumstance. Several doctors, while employed full time as professionals, have been denied the professional allowance and exploited due to the Commission's refusal to review its rules.

If doctors have special obligations, they can demand special benefits and go on strike, as long as the demands are reasonable and it does not undermine patient care. The provision of healthcare is a joint responsibility of the government, hospitals and doctors and each element should support the other.