Rags to riches and finally Theemuge?

"Those who say I have a selfish motive to become president are right: I want the job to solve the difficulties people face today." –Gasim Ibrahim

In many a fairytale, the hero starts in humble beginnings and ends in riches… and of course a palace. But even the legendary narrator Hans Anderson will find it difficult to match the real life story of Gasim Ibrahim. The meteoric rise of the Maamigili boy from the job of a farm-help in an uninhabited island to the dizzy heights of his current position as the chairman of Villa Group will be a story that will continue to inspire generations of island boys.

If fortune changes men, then Gasim remains an illustrious exception to this rule. Despite his legendary wealth Gasim leads a fairly simple life and is arguably the most approachable tycoon in the Maldives. His humble days appear to be etched indelibly into his psyche.

"Those who say I have a selfish motive to become president are right: I want to deliver the things that people demand. I want the job to solve the difficulties people face today," Gasim told supporters during the official launching of his election campaign. Such a statement would normally be discarded as political hyperbole. But coming from Gasim Ibrahim, one must give it at least the benefit of doubt. After all, it has always been Gasim's lifelong mission to help people. Who has not heard of Villa scholarships and Villa welfare?

Gasim says his early days of suffering in Male implanted in him a strong desire to help people and improve their conditions. Here again one must give the benefit of doubt to Gasim that he may be telling the truth, because after all, the man has actually spent millions to help improve people's lives.

Some of Gasim's election promises appear to be extensions of the philanthropic work that he has been personally pursuing: the university and the hospitals. Along with this he also promised another welfare scheme –building 1000 flats a year in Hulhumale. This of course is a logistically impossible target, and it will be interesting to watch how Gasim deals with this promise if he gets elected.

Gasim's economic policies include a Mrf 1.5 billion fund to provide low interest loans, introduction of new taxes, establishing four economic zones, and oil exploration. While enhanced taxation will be crucial to implement Gasim's social programs, his ability to raise the level of taxation will remain questionable, given the composition of his core team, which includes some businessmen with doubtful reputations.

Only time will tell whether Gasim achieves his motive. With the election barely a month away, he is racing against time to establish sufficient party presence in the islands to put up a credible campaign. One thing is certain though. Anyone who knows Gasim will testify that the last thing on Gasim's mind is to occupy Theemuge and live like an Arab Sheikh.

Will Maldives health insurance scheme succeed?

Maldives yesterday launched its second social health insurance scheme in as many years. Will the scheme be second time lucky and succeed? Success of course depends entirely on how one defines success. If by success one means that those who are lucky enough to get enrolled into the scheme get the limited package of benefits that it promises, without bankrupting the scheme, there is a fair chance of success. However if by success one means that all citizens will get access to effective health care by paying an affordable premium, the story may be different.

Maldives is certainly not the first country to attempt "universal coverage" of social health insurance. So it is worthwhile to learn from the experiences of other countries. Fortunately for us such experience has been summarized by Guy Carrin in a brilliant meta-analytic article ("Guy Carrin, Social health insurance in developing countries: a continuing challenge, International Social Security Review, p57-69, Vol.55, 2/2002".)

According to Carrin some of the difficulties faced by countries include the following:

1. Inadequate or ineffective health care provided to the insured members: This implies that the general or special health care services provided to insured members are part of the basic benefit package that may already exist or be created by the SHI schemes. If the existing health care system is not able to provide the essential health care package, it makes little sense to start a SHI scheme. It is painfully obvious that the Maldives health system is far short of providing even a semblance of adequate health care. Just look at the thousands of Maldivians travelling abroad for treatment.
   
2. Lack of managerial or administrative capacity to organize a nation-wide SHI scheme, that make inadequate collection or reimbursements, inefficient management of revenues and assets collected, or lack of monitoring the necessary health and financial information: With little experience in handling any sort of insurance, let alone health insurance, Maldives is far from meeting the managerial criteria for organizing an effective health insurance scheme.
   
3. Poor political stability usually linked with economic insecurity and also lack of policy debates among high-level policy makers and beneficiaries: The Maldivian economy currently faces a crisis. Further, no open debate has ever been conducted among the stakeholders.
   

 

The ingredients of successful social health insurance have also been identified by the author. They include:

1. Level of income: Once general population has better income, they tend to make higher health insurance contributions. No country (with the exception of Haiti) with per capita GDP below $ 3000 has succeeded in implementing social health insurance. While the Maldives GDP approaches this figure, income inequalities are likely to hamper insurance.
   
2. Relative size of informal and formal sectors: The larger the informal sector, the more difficult it is to manage the setting and collection of contributions and even reimbursement. In the Maldives fishermen and a wide range of other workers are in the informal sector. This will make the situation extremely complicated.
   
3. Time implications: Experience indicates that a few decades are needed to reach universal coverage. Appropriate strategic development plans are required; it is likely that Maldives will take at least several decades to achieve universal coverage.
   

Which way will the election shift?

In Presidential Election 2008, so far eight candidates are in the fray. Among them only three rate as serious contenders on current strength: Gayoom, Gasim, and Anni, in that order. Like a seasonal sand dune, this scene could shift dramatically between now and October 10. But for now, let us speculate how each of these candidates could manipulate the situation to their advantage.

1. Gayoom
   

   His strength is that he is the most marketed product in the Maldives, with brand recognition far ahead of Nespray and Marlboro, his nearest rivals. But this advantage could melt away like ice sculpture, if rival candidates get the time and opportunity to conduct a cohesive campaign. So his strategy should be to hold the election without delay and to put as many administrative barriers as possible to thwart rival campaigns. If he fails to do this, he risks losing his top position.
   

   
   

2. Gasim
   

   His top strength is his image as a philanthropist, with beneficiaries all over the Maldives. He also has personal wealth and a bunch of businessmen to finance his campaign. His main weakness is lack of party infrastructure at island level to conduct an effective campaign. His strategy should therefore be to establish party branches as soon as possible. He would benefit from postponing the election, as it would give him more time to organize at island level.
   

   
   

3. Anni
   

   Anni's main strength is MDP, which has grassroots organization all over Maldives. His main weakness is his image, which is that of an activist rather than a statesman. The other weakness is that his manifesto has not been well marketed. Anni's main strategy should be to team up with a credible running mate and to market a positive manifesto, leaving aside the temptation of picking on Gayoom. MDP stands to lose from any postponement of the election, as it will give their rivals time to build grassroots organization.
   

   
   
   Readers may be wondering why Yaameen did not figure in the top three. Well, he has only to blame himself for squandering his pre-eminent position as Gayoom's leading rival within the span of less than a year. This process of self destruction will be complete if and when Yaameen joins Gayoom's cabinet. As for Mohammed Waheed Hassan Manik, the best he can hope for is for the election to be over before the expiry of his return ticket back to the US.

Who is the real Gasim?

"If I were to ask for anyone's help other than Allah's, I swear I'd ask for yours," Gasim Ibrahim wrote to Gayoom from his Dhoonidhoo cell, while imprisoned there following the August 12-13 incident of 2004.

"The Maldivian people know who fights for their rights and who doesn't," Gasim Ibrahim thundered to his supporters during his party's congress on 22 August 2008.

Was it the same Gasim who made these two statements, and if not which is the real Gasim? Fortune does not change men; it unmasks them. But sometimes people carry to such perfection the mask they have assumed that in due course they actually become the person they seem. So, has Gasim become the mask he wore?

Gasim's privately owned Villa Foundation awards about 150 scholarships to young Maldivians to pursue higher studies each year. Scholars are selected to the scheme on purely objective criteria, with no influence whosoever exercised by the Chairman. More than a 1000 students have benefited from this scheme so far. Gasim's welfare scheme has funded medical treatment abroad for 1000s of poor Maldivians. Most of them have never met Gasim. Was this a truly 'free lunch"?

These two philanthropic schemes rival, or perhaps even exceed, the corresponding Government schemes. Thus Gasim stands out as the philanthropist par excellence. Is this the real Gasim?

With his sponsorship of the 2001 petition signed by 40 intellectuals, Gasim is widely credited for the birth of the party system in the Maldives. He is rumored to be funding most opposition parties in the Maldives including MDP, IDP and Adaalath. On the other hand, he is also rumored to have funded the defection of prominent opposition MPs to DRP. Which of these roles, if any, did the real Gasim play? It's said that for some people there is more to life than just having everything. Is this true for Gasim?

Gasim is also widely credited to have led the constitutional amendment process to a successful conclusion. However, it is also alleged that the finally passed draft had many inconsistencies that Gasim could not prevent. In the process of removing these inconsistencies, it is also alleged he colluded with Ibra and AG Azima to introduce into the draft phrases and clauses never passed by the Majlis. What is the truth here?

As finance minister from mid 2005 to mid 2008, Gasim presided over the biggest budget fiasco in the history of Maldives, which diverted the country's fiscal course irreversibly towards bankruptcy. Did the budget fail because the trade minister and others failed to materialize the mega projects on which the budget depended, as Gasim alleges? Or did it fail because Gasim set rashly impractical targets and gambled with the country's economy?

Gasim's Villa Group currently owns about 15 % of all tourist beds in the country. The figure could even double when resorts currently under development are opened. With massive investments at Keekimini and Maandhoo, Gasim has a controlling interest in the fisheries industry. He also has similar controlling interests in the petroleum and LPG distribution industries. With investments in nearly all types of enterprises in the Maldives, Gasim is the capitalist par excellence. Is this the real face of Gasim?

In Senate confirmation hearings for constitutional posts in the United States, candidates are asked questions designed to bring out their attitudes and ideologies. The underlying belief is that people continue to hold and practice their old beliefs and ideologies in their new jobs, like the proverbial leopard, which does not change its spots. From Gasim's past actions can we predict what sort of president he would become?

Will he be a business friendly capitalist, or a pro-poor socialist with enough courage to introduce heavy taxation to fund social services? In other words, can he run with the hares while hunting with the hounds? Will he become the Lee Kuan Yu of Maldives running a clean administration or will he become the King Fahd of Maldives running a regime of favoritism? Will he become the selfless Mandela of Maldives or the monopolist Stanley Ho (the business tycoon who practically owns Macao) of Maldives? There are telltale clues in Gasim's track record to answer these questions with reasonable accuracy.

For 30 years Maldivians depended on the noblesse of a holy man to build their security. History tells us the outcome. For the next 10 years can they depend on the magnanimity of a philanthropist to build their security? Maldivians can choose their leader; destiny will choose the consequences.

["Destiny is a name often given in retrospect to choices that had dramatic consequences," – J. K. Rowling in Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone ]

Why are Maldivian boys rude?

These days you'll have to listen to schoolboys at your own risk. Their insult strewn lingo is definitely not for the weak hearted. If you unwittingly walk into a group of young boys having fun on the road, it is strongly recommended you reverse your steps before they spot you. The worst mistake you can ever do is to start advising them on good behavior.

Young boys hanging around street corners and making a nuisance of themselves have become a national disaster. Their kin who make life difficult for teachers and parents are no better.

After observing the current scenario, it's difficult to imagine that once Male was a very peaceful place with young boys respecting teachers, parents and elders and helping them in their daily chores. So what has gone wrong?

The obvious truth is that this is the result of national negligence. All of us are to blame –government, teachers, religious scholars, parents, adults, all. Over the last 30 years we have done nothing, absolutely nothing, to shape the behaviors of our children.

On the other hand, we do everything to spoil them. Even before the child is born, we start collecting baby clothes, toiletries and toys. As soon as the child is born pampering with material presents begins in earnest.

We also do nothing to discipline the child when he/she misbehaves. We believe disciplining and punishing children make them lose their self confidence. We believe this leaves them weak to face competition in today's material world.

The end result of all this pampering is that by the time our 'lovely' child goes to school, he is already a spoilt brat to the teachers. Most parents find this difficult to believe and dispute the teachers, in the process teaching the boy not to respect the teachers.

Can we improve the situation? Certainly. There are many examples of government as well as NGOs and individuals successfully creating awareness among the people and changing behavior. Take the example of health and nutrition awareness. Today nearly all people avoid foods with oil and cholesterol. They also consume fruits and vegetables and avoid junk food. The number of youngsters and adults taking regular exercise has also increased.

Similarly the number of youngsters doing regular 5 times prayers is at an all time high. The number of girls wearing the buruqa has also reached about 80%. All these shows that with the right type of technique behavior can be changed.

It's not too late to save the young generation. But the time to start work is now.

Intellectuals and the 5 star hotel

Maldivian intellectuals, particularly those of the commercial kind, rarely foray into social issues. So this time when a group of architects, civil engineers and lawyers submitted a petition against the proposed 5 star hotel in Lonuziyaaraykolhu it was something of a surprise. The question is, why did they think this so important that they broke up years of near total silence? Is the project so flawed that it deserves instant condemnation?

The answer appears to be an emphatic 'no'. In fact, it appears that the intellectuals simply signed somebody's petition without actually verifying the facts. For example, the document got the site of the hotel wrong. While it says the hotel is to be located in the public park to the east of Dharubaaruge, actually only a part of the park was to be used for the hotel. Most of the land was to come from the premises of Dharubaaruge.

The arguments against the hotel were also rather vague and had little relevance to the hotel project. While the petition talks about congestion in the island of Male, it is rather obvious that the hotel would add very little to the existing congestion. Male already has 100,000 locals and about 40,000 expatriate laborers living here. It is difficult to understand how an additional 500 to 600 hotel guests could add anything significant to the existing congestion in Male.

The intellectuals also fail to understand that a bustling capital like Male needs a 5-star hotel to accommodate the numerous business and diplomatic visitors. Keeping them in nearby resorts is not a solution to the issue. Not everybody will be happy with a launch ride back to their hotel room every night especially in inclement weather.

How long will Dhivehi survive?

In the 90s it was common to see young office girls reading Binma Waheed and Nahla's stories. Not any longer. A few weeks back I went searching the leading bookshops of Male for a good Dhivehi novel. I was surprised to learn that there are hardly any Dhivehi novels on display. The only ones I found were copies of the recent series of books written by Mustafa Lutfi. The shopkeeper told me they don't sell either. I discussed this with a friend who informed me that recently he was told by an official of Novelty, the leading publisher in the Maldives, that they are no longer publishing Dhivehi books as there is no market for them.

I had a similar experience looking for Dhivehi songs. Nearly 90% of songs stocked by music shops are English and Hindi CDs. The classical Dhivehi songs of the 70s and 80s have all but disappeared except in the series of 'E-Handhaan' CDs produced by Voice of Maldives.

The disdain shown by the current generation of Maldivians to Dhivehi literature is also reflected in student attitudes towards teaching Dhivehi at school. For nearly all students their most hated subject is the compulsorily taught Dhivehi language.

We know at least one reason why youngsters are moving away from Dhivehi. The youth spend most of their leisure time chatting on mobile phones or PCs and usually Dhivehi fonts are not available on these programs. So if one wants to use Dhivehi one has to write in Latin script. Many youngsters find it more convenient therefore to write in English itself.

If this trend continues how long will Dhivehi language survive?