Some challenges for the new government

The honeymoon period of Mohamed Nasheed (Anni)'s new government is likely to be short. Expectations are high among supporters, while a bruised DRP is lying in ambush for its first opportunity to strike ahead of the Majlis elections in February. So the government will be hard pressed to show results, despite overwhelming challenges.

Budget crisis:

Finance Minister Jihad has said there will be a revenue shortfall of 2.4 billion within this year. While his claim that the government has not defaulted on salary payments is true, it is also equally true that many low level employees are suffering because of restrictions on overtime payments. Finance ministry sources say the revenue for 2009 is not expected to cross the 8 billon mark. This would leave very little for development projects. So the picture is not very rosy for fulfilling election promises, unless alternative sources of revenue are identified.

Independent institutions:

Independent institutions described in the new Constitution, such as Election Commission, Auditor General, Supreme Court, Anti-Corruption Commission, and the Civil Services Commission are in various stages of infancy. They must be made fully functional and truly independent, in order to ensure that democracy takes root in the Maldives.

Strengthening the legal framework:

The Majlis faces a Herculean task in passing crucial legislation in several key areas such as local governance, penal code, political parties, university, pensions, health services, prison and parole etc. The task is all the more difficult because the ruling coalition does not command a majority in the Majlis. So the government will need all the diplomatic skills it can muster to ensure the smooth passage of laws through the Majlis.

Congratulations Mohamed Nasheed (Anni)

Warmest congratulations to Mohamed Nasheed (Anni), Dr. Waheed and the Wathan Edhey Gothah Coalition for their decisive victory in Presidential Election 2008. Congratulations also to all Maldivians. You have a new leader, a new beginning and a new future.

Wathan Edhey Gothah team has truly created history by bringing down Asia's longest surviving leader. Such leaders have rarely been defeated at the ballot box anywhere in the world. Anni truly deserves praise for his vision and resolve.

"Long years ago we made a tryst with destiny, and now the time comes when we shall redeem our pledge…. A moment comes, which comes but rarely in history, when we step out from the old to the new, when an age ends, and when the soul of a nation, long suppressed, finds utterance…The achievement we celebrate today is but a step, an opening of opportunity, to the greater triumphs and achievements that await us. Are we brave enough and wise enough to grasp this opportunity and accept the challenge of the future?" –Jawaharlal Nehru

FLASHBACK: The Math – A few scenarios for swinging the votes!

By Ahmed Afaal

On October 11, 2008 I submitted an article on very simple mathematics of the possibilities for swing votes in the second run of the election. In that I made a number of assumptions that would make the suggested scenarios possible.

Usually simple mathematics works. And in this case some assumptions that I made was true.

Voter turnout:

The most important assumption that I made was that voter turnout should be as high as that of the first run. In the first run the total turnout was 176,567 voters. This time around the number in fact was higher at 179,343.

Voter who voted for DRP and MDP at the first round remain constant:

Although this may not be exactly true the following math suggests that it is very close to the assumption. In the first round MDP got 44,293 votes and DRP got 71,731 votes. My calculations were based on 3 scenarios, i.e. 10% swing, 15% swing and 20% swing. I also suggested that it would be difficult to get a 20% swing. (Please read previous article I submitted to this blog for details).

So with a 15% swing my estimated numbers were, 94,889 for MDP and 81,678 for DRP. Of course these numbers are subject to a margin of error. The actual numbers attained are 97,222 for MDP and 82,121 for DRP. For an estimate I would say a close figure. The reason for saying that is if you look carefully, my estimate for a 15% swing resulted in an increase of 12.18% of votes for DRP from the first round. The actual increase is 12.65%. And the rest voted for MDP.

Comments:

I also agree that all the assumptions that I made in the previous analysis may not be true. But what I see here is that it is important that intellectual mathematical analyses are used by the media and even political parties in understanding the real voting scenarios. I encourage that media and political advisors to undertake such analysis during election times so that more objective ideas maybe obtained about the situations at hand.

Though I am not an election statistical expert, I have some academic background on statistics and also worked a large part of my working like producing statistics and using statistics for planning purposes. What I have presented in the October 11^th article and this one are just simple mathematical analysis based on the little statistical experience I have and what I read from the Internet about voting, elections and mathematical analyses elsewhere.

Please do not consider the previous article as well as this article "political" but an intellectual piece of work by an independent (which I am still) citizen of the Maldives.

Note: All figures used for the calculations are taken from the Elections Commission website http://www.elections.gov.mv/)

This analysis was presented by Ahmed Afaal, for the readers of this blog. He has his own blog (No politics) at http://afaal.blogspot.com/. As always I welcome contributions from the readers of this blog, which I will publish for the benefit of other readers and to keep this blog rich in content.

After the Election is over…

Tomorrow there will be a clear-cut winner in Presidential Election 2008 –and a loser. What they do in the next few days, weeks and months will impact not just democracy in the Maldives, but the entire future of the country. How magnanimous will the winner be and how gracious the loser?

The Maldives faces grave economic threats and pressing social issues like drugs, crime and housing shortage. Solving these problems will require sincere bipartisan support. Such cooperation depends a lot on the winner as the head of a responsive government and the loser as the head of a responsible opposition.

The past few months have seen an unprecedented level of mutual recrimination and mudslinging from all sides. Healing hurt feelings and bruised egos will not be easy, but imperative nevertheless. As Martin-Luther King Junior said, "We must learn to live together as brothers or perish together as fools."

Despite the acrimonious campaigns of the past weeks, multi-party democracy is here to stay. For most Maldivians, going back to the party-less days of 'wahudhath', where dissent was equated with rebellion, is simply not an option.

As a nation we have sacrificed so much for reform. Let all sides work together to realize this dream for the sake of our future.

What Issues Will Decide the Election?

The priority political parties give to different election issues may be gauged from the campaign time they devote to each issue. Based on this one could easily compile a list of top election issues as seen by the parties. But what are the top election issues as seen by the voters? This is more difficult to gauge accurately as it would require an expensive survey. But a fairly good idea may be obtained by interviewing voters from different backgrounds. From such exercises it appears that political party priorities and voter preferences appear to be quite different.

Top issues for parties based on the time devoted:

• Religion: Both MDP and DRP claim to be the sole defenders of the faith. DRP accuses MDP of plotting to bring Christianity to the Maldives. MDP accuses President Gayoom of fostering an irreligious culture.
  
• Competence of candidate: DRP accuses Anni of lack of experience, incompetency and inciting lawlessness. MDP counters by claiming it has a better team, and accuses Gayoom of being corrupt and a failure.
  
• Drugs: MDP accuses Gayoom of failing to curb the spread of drugs. DRP accuses Anni of being sympathetic to drug addicts.
  
• Past record: DRP claims it has an impressive development record. MDP dismisses it saying it is not enough compared to the opportunities and resources.
  
• Reforms: MDP claims the reforms of the past 4 years were due to their pressure. DRP says the reforms were initiated by President Gayoom.
  
• Development promises: In the second round of the election, manifestos have taken a backseat in both DRP and MDP camps.
  

Top reasons for voter preference, based on interviews:

• Personality: Most voters were not able to tell why they liked a particular candidate. Many people who voted for Gayoom said they simply liked him. Anni appears to be a bit behind Gayoom in this area. There are many people who say they would have voted for Hassan Saeed, had he been in the second round.
  
• Perceived sincerity and trustworthiness: More than the actual promises, most voters gave preference to how they thought each candidate will keep those promises. Interestingly voter decisions on the sincerity of a candidate were not based on any objective criteria, but subjective perception.
  
• Perceived competence: Capability of candidates was also decided by the voters based on subjective impressions. For example, while many voters thought Hassan Saeed was capable, few of them actually knew any details of his work.
  

[Note: this is not a scientific study and no claim is made for the accuracy of the findings.]

Implications of Impeaching Auditor General

Majlis Members affiliated to Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) and People's Alliance (PA) on 22^nd October filed a motion against Auditor General Ibrahim Naeem, accusing him of political partiality in publishing the President's Office Audit Report. As of now it is unclear whether this motion is tantamount to formal impeachment proceedings. That the first ever independent Auditor General of Maldives should face impeachment (if it comes to that) barely 10 months into office, raises eyebrows for several reasons.

First, impeachment of Auditor Generals and their removal from office are rare occurrences in established democracies. The point here is Auditor General's are not replaced with each change of government or shift in Parliamentary balance. Dismissal of the Maldives Auditor General under the current circumstances could establish a precedent that could undermine the independence of not just the Auditor General, but all the 7 independent institutions included in the Constitution – institutions whose independence and impartiality are essential to maintain accountability and checks and balances.

Second, even in cases where Auditor General's have been impeached in the recent past, the proceedings were prompted by well documented misconduct or incompetence. For example, when in December 2007, Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly (SSLA) passed a vote of no confidence in Auditor General Barnaba Majok Barnabas, it was prompted by proof of massive embezzling of public funds and failure to deliver service in auditing government accounts.

The procedure laid down in the Constitution of Maldives appears to be in line with the two points described above. While Article 218 gives power to the Majlis to dismiss the Auditor General, it also limits the grounds on which Majlis can do so. The Article reads:

"The Auditor General shall be removed from office only for the reasons specified in article (a) and in the manner specified in article (b):

(a) On the ground of misconduct, incapacity or incompetence; and

(b) a finding to that effect by a committee of the People's Majlis, pursuant to article (a) and upon the approval of such finding by the People's Majlis by a majority of those present and voting, calling for the Auditor General's removal from office, the Auditor General shall be deemed removed from office."

Coming to the 3 reasons mentioned in (a), incapacity can certainly be ruled out because Naeem appears healthy and energetic. Incompetence can also be ruled out because of the following reasons:

Naeem has impressive academic qualifications and an impeccable international resume. In fact, when on 5 December 2007 the Majlis ratified his nomination, the decision was met with rare and near unanimous public acclaim. Soon after assuming office, Naeem managed to do the impossible by galvanizing a lackluster Audit Office into a vibrant professional team –a feat that raised Naeem's esteem in the public eye by a further few notches.

Thus, through elimination we can safely assume that the basis of the no-confidence motion is misconduct. The exact meaning of misconduct (which probably includes the concept of 'betrayal of public trust' or violation of the oath of office) is not defined in the constitution. The Drafting Committee of the Constitution put impeachment into the hands of the legislative branch and transformed it from a matter of legal definition to a matter of political judgment. Hence, the definition of 'impeachable misconduct' depends on what the majority of the Majlis considers it to be at a given moment in history. Let us then look at some of the issues now before the Majlis.

PA Majlis Member Ahmed Zubair and DRP Member Abdul Rasheed Nafiz have told the media some of the reasons for tabling the motion against Auditor General Naeem. They include:

• Publishing President's Office Audit Report without following the procedures that require audit reports to be submitted to the Financial Committee of the Majlis before publishing.
  


• 
  
  The hurried timing of publishing of President's Office Audit Report within 36 hours of the October 8 Election, which raises questions on Naeem's professionalism.
  


• 
  
  Unacceptability of some of the findings included in the report.
  

The Auditor General's report sheds light on loans disbursed by the President's Office, expenses of President's local and international travel, Hill and Norlton project, Project Druid, and promotions given to government officials. The report says there were a number of discrepancies in these expenditures.

The unfolding drama brings to mind a feeling of déjà vu going back to the days of the Motorboat Uprising, the forgettable day in November 1934 when the first Constitution of the Maldives was torn away by a Palace inspired mob. Clearly in 1934 the Palace and the mob were not ready for a constitution. In 2008 are we ready for independent institutions?

Where is the University of Maldives?

There are certain things that must either be done well or not done at all. Most people believe that creating a university comes in that category.

If making a University is as simple as fixing a name board, Maldives College of Higher Education (MCHE) would have become University of Maldives on 1 January 2007, the date announced by President Gayoom a year earlier. In fact MCHE is far better justified to make such an upgrade, compared to many other institutions already promoted in that manner.

MCHE has thousands of students enrolled in its 7 faculties, 2 specialized centers and 3 atoll-based campuses. It conducts more than 100 different academic programmes including 13 degree level courses and 16 Advanced Diploma courses. Many of the courses lead to good employment prospects and are very popular among the country’s youth.

So what is holding back the creation of the University? According to MCHE as well as Dr. Mahmood Shaugy, who is currently charged with coordinating the formation of the university, the most important single step that needs to be taken is the passing of legislation required to make the University autonomous. A draft law was compiled in July 2006. Later in December the same year, a draft Presidential Decree was submitted to the President’s Office.

What are the characteristics of a university?

Fixing a name board is not enough to make an institution a University; it has to have certain characteristics. The following information compiled by MCHE sheds light on some of the characteristics:
“The definition of a university given by CEPES, the European Centre for Higher Education, UNESCO, is more specific: ‘an institution of higher learning, participating in the evolution of knowledge which provides facilities for teaching and research, and authorized to hold examinations and grant academic degrees.’ Although the College has the authority to hold examinations and grant degrees, this authority, clearly, does not make for a university. For many people, the key characteristics of a university may be listed as the following:

• A large proportion of university academic staff hold doctorate level qualifications. In many universities almost all the teaching staff have doctorate degrees. For example, at the International Islamic University, non-doctorate holders are not allowed to teach in the undergraduate programmes.


• A variety of degree level programmes is offered. In almost all universities, faculties offer several programmes at undergraduate and graduate level. While an increasing number of universities do offer diploma programmes, certificate and advanced certificate programmes are rarities.


• University divisions (faculty and centres) are engaged in research. In all universities, research forms a major activity of the institution. Staff time is generally shared between teaching and research. Specialized centres for research are part of many universities. Faculties are often evaluated and promoted depending on their research output. Researchers often publish their articles in university or international journals. Subjects on research methodologies are routinely found in the final year of degree courses. At the same time, there is a growing number of universities which do not concentrate on research activities, devoting their time on teaching. Nevertheless, research is a defining characteristic of all good universities.


• The university has resources and facilities to deliver undergraduate programmes. Resources would include libraries and laboratory facilities where they are needed. It is not possible to deliver an undergraduate programme without involving the students in activities that are stipulated by the programme.


• Most universities are managed with some degree of autonomy. The government of universities are characterized by self regulation with committees involved in major policy making. Usually a Council or Board of Governors make key decisions and approves policies. Often the Vice Chancellor or Rector is appointed by the Council. Academic decisions are made by a Senate or Academic Board. In general many universities operate in a climate which is removed from the main political currents of the external environment.

THE BRITISH CRITERIA
Quality Assurance Agency is the UK government body which evaluates submissions for University title by the British educational institutions. It has a published set of criteria to assist in the evaluation process. This criteria has been recently revised (August 2004) but remains essentially the same as before. When an institution aspires to become a university, QAA evaluates the institution’s performance using the criteria. Of all such criteria, the British QAA criteria appears to be the most comprehensive, rational and well-recognized.

When President Gayyoom announced that the Government intends to transform MCHE into University by 1st January 2007, the College set itself the task of developing a plan for the transformation. A guiding document was the more rigorous earlier QAA criteria which were used to evaluate MCHE. Against QAA guidelines, the Deans committee agreed that MCHE presently meets 78% of the criteria at an acceptable level.

In other words, of the 87 QAA criteria, the College needs to strengthen its performance in only 19 areas. Since the March 2006 evaluation, the College has steadily worked to meet the remaining criteria. MCHE now meets most of the QAA criteria. [For details please refer: http://www.mche.edu.mv/assets/images/mche/op_for_unititle.pdf]”

Is the PA-DRP agreement genuine?

Wathan Edhey Gothah Coalition has revealed to the media a document they say is an agreement between President Gayoom's DRP and his brother Abdulla Yamin's PA, detailing their plans to share power if Gayoom wins the election on 28^th October. The 'leaked' agreement raises several questions: First, is it genuine? And if so, what's the significance?

Authenticity

At a joint news conference held to announce the coalition between DRP and PA at Dharubaaruge on 22 September, DRP Spokesman Ibrahim Shafiu referred to an 'agreement.' When asked whether the cooperation between the two parties was conditional on including PA ministers in the cabinet, Shafiu said in Dhivehi, "the two leaders will continue to give the details. Here we have a basic agreement. What I want to say is that it cannot be ruled out. And if it happens DRP will welcome it. That's because PA includes senior leaders who brought DRP into being in its formative stages. It will be an honor if one of them sits in a seat of our government." Two significant points may be inferred from Shaifu's statement:

1. On 22 September there was a written agreement between the two parties. (Written because people normally don't use the word agreement when speaking in Dhivehi unless there was a written document.)
   
   
2. The agreement at that stage did not include details of sharing cabinet seats, details of which would continue to be given by the two leaders. (The use of the continuous tense suggests an ongoing negotiation process.)
   

The document revealed to the media did not bear signatures. This does not prove it is fake. But it does prove one thing: Even if it is genuine it is merely a draft. This would again appear to point towards an ongoing negotiation process. Thus (assuming the document is genuine) there could have been later drafts and a possible signed final agreement. One thing is certain: What is in front of the media is certainly not the signed final agreement. At best it is a genuine draft.

The date on the revealed document is 1 September 2008, which is 3 weeks before the Dharubaaruge news conference. If Shafiu was telling the truth on 22 September that no agreement was still reached, what was the reason for this prolonged delay? Negotiation failure? If that is the case, could this be the initial starting proposal submitted by PA, which was ultimately rejected by DRP? (All this is supposing the draft is authentic).

What really is the document revealed by the Wathan Edhey Coalition? While there are many possibilities, the following 4 stand out:

1. A draft leaked by an opposition sympathizer in either the DRP or PA camp.
   


2. A fake document produced by the opposition to discredit DRP.
   


3. A draft leaked by DRP, the motive being to scuttle negotiations that are not going its way.
   


4. A draft leaked by PA (No plausible motive visible at present).
   

Significance

If genuine, the agreement will allow Abdulla Yamin to control the economic sectors of Maldives, with his PA controlling 25 percent of Gayoom's cabinet. Yamin will head a super ministry –economic and tourism development –and have veto power over financial decisions.

Should the public be worried?

According to Dr. Jameel of the Watthan Edhey Coalition, the agreement violates the Constitution. He says it delegates some of the powers of the president and the cabinet to Yamin and a 6-member committee.

Deputy Media Manager of Maumoon 2008 campaign Ali Waheed has said the 'leaked' document was not genuine. However he also pointed out that there was nothing wrong with forging a coalition agreement among political parties.

A Few Points for the Next Government on MNDF

By Dhivehi Dharieh

Here are a few points for the Government that takes oath on 11th November 2008 to consider regarding the defence establishment of the country. First I would like to outline 3 points which should be amended into the Armed Forces Act.

The first point of note is to set out a fixed term of duty for the post of the Chief of Defence Force (CDF). The post's duties and responsibilities are well laid out in the law. The addition of a fixed term for it is essential to ensure the flow of promotion effectively among senior ranks and secure the position from being dominated by a single person for an undue period of time. The duration of the fixed term could be set after looking at those of other military bodies and adjusted to suit Maldivian environment; the standard term found in most countries is 3 years. And also the person holding the post should be limited to serving a single term of duty.

In connection with the first point, the person holding the position of the Chief of Defence Force would need to be exempt from the clause in the law regarding the compulsory retirement age for military personnel. The reason for this is to ensure the stability of the term of duty for the position, thereby giving the person holding the position an unhindered 3 years to put policies and strategies into effect. The lack of this provision would result in the rapid turnover of personnel holding the post, thus depriving the force of a stable and effective leadership.

Thirdly is to lay down a provision requiring that appointments to the posts of CDF / Vice CDF are done with the approval of the parliament. To ensure a faster and secure process through the parliament the approval process can be set to be carried out in the security committee of the parliament without going to the main parliament floor. The reasoning behind this rule is to ensure protection from politically motivated appointments to the senior positions. This would serve to keep the defence force apolitical. This is a standard procedure followed in numerous other countries as well.

Now I would like to offer some thoughts about the leadership of the defence establishment. This might be more relevant in case of a change in the current government. Looking first at the highest defence establishment post is that of the Minister of Defence. The person for this post should be a mature respectable person who preferably has a background in foreign / international relations or the legal sector. An ideal candidate in the opposition would be Mr. Shaheed Zaki.

Next is the post of the Chief of Defence Force. The incumbent, Maj. General Mohamed Zahir has served in that capacity for a number of years, so with a change in government he should preferably be retired honorably and if he wishes to continue serving the government, assigned to a civil post such as that of ambassador. Looking at the potential candidate for the post, the person in the current situation needs to be a well respected officer both in public as well as within the defence force. He would also need to be a professional soldier who has proven his capability. As such a clear choice stands out in the MNDF which is that of Brigadier Moosa Jaleel. There have been some views published regarding assigning Brig. Jaleel to the post of the Minister. But since he's well below military retirement age and his skills, capability and leadership are mostly needed at the position of the Chief of Defence Force to bring about the necessary changes to the defence forces, he should be utilized in that post.

Lastly the orientation of MNDF should be changed for it to focus on external defence and security instead of internal security. The MNDF should be called upon on internal security missions only as a last resort and with parliament approval. This would require the capabilities of the police service being enhanced. The MNDF should focus its resources and capabilities in the area of civil defence such as Coast Guard and Fire and Rescue.

[Note: This article was submitted by Dhivehi Dharieh, and so the contents are his/her intellectual property. This blog will consider for publication articles that are constructive, avoid obscene language and do not needlessly launch personal attacks on individuals or communities. Authors of controversial articles are requested to identify themselves.]

A Bridge Too Far?

Few development proposals have stirred as much controversy as the Bridge to Hulhumale. Supporters see it as a bridge to the future, while opponents see it as an unattainable dream. Let us examine some of the hottest debates.

Technical feasibility

The distance between Male and Hulhule is about 960 meters, land to land, and 860 meters, reef to reef. Compared to this the longest span in the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco is about 1200 meters. The average depth of the Golden Gate channel is 120 meters. These figures would appear to suggest the bridge is technically feasible. However there are other issues to be solved such as the shortage of land to locate base structures. How the stream of traffic from the bridge will cross the runway safely is also a thorny issue.

Economic feasibility

When the idea of the bridge was first mooted the estimated cost was $30 million. In more recent estimates the cost has escalated to $60 million. It's likely that when detailed specifications are available the cost would jump over $100 million. (Golden Gate was constructed at a cost of $33 million in the 1930s. Its total length is twice the Hulhumale Bridge).

Opponents see the cost of the bridge as a burden that can never be recovered through toll. Supporters say all public infrastructure is not built on cost recovery basis. They cite examples such as regional airports, Male Sea Wall and island harbors. The strongest argument for the bridge is the relief it will bring to congestion in Male by opening up hundreds of thousands of square feet of housing area and parking space.

Let’s have your views on the controversy.

Snapping at the Snap Election

Wathan Edhey Gothah Coalition candidate Mohamed Nasheed (Anni) has thrown a spanner in the works by announcing a snap mid-term election if he becomes president. The news was greeted by a flurry of condemnatory terms ranging from 'unconstitutional', 'against the spirit of the Constitution', 'undependable' and 'untrustworthy'. Is this a mere storm in the tea cup or is there something more than meets the eye?

Not being Constitutional experts, most of us will not be able to understand the 'spirit of the Constitution.' But fortunately it's rather easy to read the letter of the Constitution, which is in plain Dhivehi. Here are the translations of some relevant clauses.

Clause 124 (b)

"In the event of the permanent incapacity, resignation, removal or death of both the President or the Vice President, and both offices becoming vacant at the same time, leading to an incapacity to carry out the duties of the President, until such time as a President and a Vice President shall be elected, the duties of both offices shall temporarily be carried out, in order of priority, by the Speaker of the People's Majlis, or by the Deputy Speaker of the People's Majlis, or by a member of the People's Majlis elected by a resolution of the People's Majlis, until successors in office are chosen."

Clause 125 (a)

"If any of the instances specified in Article 124 (b) of this Constitution occur and both the office of the President and the Vice President become vacant at the same time, a Presidential election shall be held within sixty days of both offices becoming vacant and appointments shall be made to both offices."

In major democracies of the world such as the UK, Germany, France, Italy and India, it is quite common to see mid-term elections for the post of head of government. USA is a notable exception to this practice, with Vice President's taking over when the Presidency falls vacant. The US practice however comes at a cost. Someone can become President without ever facing a national election (even as a running mate). This is not just theory. In real life Vice President Gerald Ford became the 38^th President of the United States when Richard Nixon resigned in 1974. Earlier in 1973 he had become Vice President when Spiro Agnew (who was Nixon's running mate) resigned. Thus Ford never faced an election either as presidential candidate or running mate. The way the current Constitution of the Maldives is written, a similar incident could occur.

Since the Maldives has held presidential swearing ceremonies on November 11^th once in 5 years since 1968, one could be forgiven if one mistook that as the spirit of the Constitution. However it had nothing to do with any spirit. It was just coincidence. If any of the incumbents had resigned or died in office, a fresh election would have been held within 60 days of the event and the new president would have gone for a full 5-year term beginning from the new date, thus upsetting the November 11 routine.

What then is the spirit of the Constitution? Is it to permanently set the timings of Presidential and Majlis elections to October and February of the following year respectively? Is this the ideal timing? Given that timing, would the newly elected President be in a stronger position to influence the Majlis elections coming just 4 months later? Would this affect the separation of powers? These are some questions one must consider.

Thakur’s democracy

Political satire

New Progress Party (NPP) had just been registered and I was at the Party headquarters to interview party leader Meedhoo Thakur. When I was ushered in to Thakur's chamber, he was counting bundles of 500 rufiyaa notes. I assumed he must have just received a grant from the Election Commissioner. I also noticed a few car catalogues on Thakur's table, but resisted the temptation to ask Thakur about it. That was not the topic of the interview and besides, who was I to question how a party leader spent his funds? Thakur greeted me warmly and asked me to start.

"What's the purpose of NPP?" I shot the first question. Thakur looked a bit puzzled. Obviously this was a topic that had never crossed his mind. Soon however he recovered.

"We are here to serve the people," he said and added after a brief pause, "…though I'm not sure why the people are here for."

"What's your goal?" I tried a different angle.

"It's better not to have a goal," Thakur shot back. "We could then go wherever we feel and still call it a goal."

"Do you mean to say," I asked, "you won't change the direction of the present government when you come to power?"

"I didn't say that and besides we must change direction immediately," he replied, "because…because if we pursue this direction … we will reach where we are going."

"What system of government do you propose?" I changed topic.

"That's a difficult one. It all depends on the circumstances. When we are in the opposition we prefer a system like that in America. But when we are in power we prefer a system like that in North Korea."

"So you prefer the presidential system," I said, "North Korea also has a presidential system."

"Definitely not," Thakur reacted sharply, "you boys must do your homework before coming to interview senior leaders like me. North Korea does not have a president they only have a Dear Leader, which translates to 'Lobuvethi Zaeem' in Dhivehi."

"Lobuvethi Zaeem may be a nice name," I said "but how will you ensure people love you all the time?"

"I will include that in the school curriculum and also in all TV programs. If that does not work I have some less subtle methods. But let's not go in to that."

"The basis of democracy is one man one vote," I queried, "do you believe that?"

"That's not enough," Thakur said. "It should be one man one vote ONE TIME. You see, once Thakur comes to power there will be no need for any further elections."

"But Thakur," I protested. "Don't you think the people should have the power to change the government if they don't like it?"

"Certainly not." Thakur shot back. "The Majority of the people are stupid. They won't know what's good for them. Only experienced people like Thakur know what's good for the people. So the people should never have the power to change the government."

"What's your view on separation of powers?" I asked.

"A very bad idea. Haven't you heard the saying 'Unity is Strength'?

"But if there is no separation won't it lead to influence over the judiciary?" I protested.

"It won't," Thakur said. "The courts will function under my special guidance. So no one can influence them."

"What about the parliament?" I asked 'Don't you think that should be separate?"

"Parliament should also function very closely with me," Thakur replied, "without such unity it will not be possible to pass the right type of laws."

"But who will speak for the people?" I asked.

"Thakur of course. Only Thakur knows what is good for the people."

"You have already said you will not hold any presidential election after coming to power," I said "does this mean there will be no elections at all after that?"

"I didn't say that. I will hold atoll and island council elections."

"Can people vote freely for whoever they want in those elections?"

"Of course they can," Thakur replied. "In an election it's not the voters who count, it's those who count the votes who count."

"Do you mean to say you will rig the elections?" I asked.

"Not necessarily," Thakur said. "When I have all the winning cards I always play very fairly."

Finally asked my last question. "Are you prepared to face the electorate?"

"Thakur is prepared to face the people. But whether the people are prepared to face Thakur is a different question," he said. At this point I realized that I was also not prepared to face Thakur anymore. So I put off my voice recorder and left.

Wathan Edhenee Kon Team akah?

We have heard ad nauseam that MDP does not have capable leaders. Such a slight could have perhaps been plausible about a month back, before the party formed a coalition with Gaumee Itthihaad Party. And now with the formation of the 'Wathan Edhey Gothah…' coalition, the accusation borders on the ridiculous.

Today while the ruling team also has capable leaders, Wathan Edhey team can credibly match them man for man. To illustrate this, let us compare possible choices for some key cabinet positions. Such a comparison can only be hypothetical because the size and shape of the future cabinet is unlikely to be the same as at present, even if DRP wins the election. Further it is difficult to predict who will be offered cabinet posts and who will accept. Keeping these limitations in mind, here are some possible pairs.

Education:

• Dr. Waheed
  


• Zahiya Zareer
  

Health:

• Ilyas
  


• Dr. Aminath Jameel
  

Trade and Tourism

• Ali Hashim
  


• Yamin
  

Fisheries

• Dr. Hussein Rasheed
  


• Dr. Fathin Hameed
  

Islamic Affairs

• Mohamed Rasheed Ibrahim
  


• Dr. Abdul Majeed
  

Legal Reform:

• Mohamed Nasheed
  


• Dr. Hassan Saeed
  

Attorney General

• Azima
  


• Dhiyana Saeed
  

Justice

• Dr. Jameel
  


• Ahmed Zahir
  

Atolls

• Thasmeen
  


• Dr. Mustafa Luthfee
  

Finance

• Qasim
  


• Jihad
  

Environment

• Dr. Mausoom
  


• Dr. Mohamed Ali
  

External Affairs

• Dr. Shaheed
  


• Abdullah Shahid
  

Planning

• Hamdhoon Hameed
  


• Abdul Bari Abdullah
  

Youth

• Dr. Aishath Shiham
  


• Hamid Abdul Ghafoor
  

It's the people who will decide on the 28^th which team they want.

Note: The above is not an exhaustive list of all possible ministries or all possible candidates.

Vote buying, why it works

Vote buying and selling plague elections not just in the Maldives, but also in a host of third world countries. Because of the wide income gap between the rich and poor in such countries, well-heeled politicians can afford to pay attractive prices to the impoverished population for their votes.

Rumors abound that during the October 10 election prices ranging from 500 rufiyaa to 2000 rufiyaa changed hands. For some groups, rumors say, payment was made in kind: heroin. An interesting twist to the tale is the allegation that vote sellers were made to swear upon the Holy Quran to ensure they voted for the buyer. This innovation could be the reaction to an Election Commission regulation that camera phones are not allowed in the polling booth. The regulation came in the wake of rumors during the August 2007 referendum alleging that money was disbursed on producing photos of 'correctly' marked ballot papers.

Apparently politicians need not have bothered to take all this trouble. Scientific research has shown that an overwhelming majority of vote sellers are too simple to think of double-crossing after taking money. The honesty of ordinary folk ties them down to their words. Ironically therefore, the more honest the people are, the more crooked the rulers.

Vote buying does not come alone. Like every carrot on offer it also comes with its own stick: threats of serious consequences such as job losses and property confiscation. Research shows that such threats also work because the people are too simple to realize that they often have legal protection from such threats.

No foolproof solution has been found for vote selling, at least in the short term. In the long term however poverty alleviation and voter education are believed to work.

Voter registration, how important is it really?

By Zed

I strongly believe, like most, that the Elections Commission of the Maldives has failed in its responsibility to setup a proper electoral register. Despite the 'thumbs up' given by international observers, I personally believe otherwise. The process should have started much earlier than it did, giving the Commission time to smooth out kinks in the system.

Most people complained about having to register to vote. It could be because the importance of this wasn't impressed enough upon the public by the responsible parties.

I agree it was more than a bit of a hassle. But having a registered voter database is perhaps more important than an election itself, especially in terms of catch phrases such as 'free and fair'. Two very critical reasons may be identified for registration. One, it is an opportunity to verify the eligibility of voters and two, it controls the legitimacy of the balloting process.

The latter reason may be harder for some to understand. It simply means ensuring that each registered voter gets to vote once and only once. The key factors to understand here are, 'registered voter' and 'vote once'. The electoral system must be challenged if cases of fraud or vote rigging surfaces. Thus, having a thorough and comprehensive electoral register is critical not just to evade potential lawsuits or civil uprisings following an election, but to ensure that the people are given the opportunity to participate in free and fair elections.

The right to vote is the most fundamental form of participation and contribution by the masses in the democratic process. No other opportunity involves the public at large.

[Note: This article was submitted by Zed, a contributor, and so the contents are his intellectual property. This blog will consider for publication articles that are constructive, avoid obscene language and do not needlessly launch personal attacks on individuals or communities. Authors of controversial articles are requested to identify themselves or at least open a line of communication for readers to use.]

The Math – a few scenarios for swinging the votes!

Now that the first round of the election is over and everyone is gearing towards the run-off, just how big is it a task for the ruling party to swing the votes to attain a majority? I have made some assumptions on the possible scenarios on swinging the votes.

The first round showed that over 59% of the voters voted for a change in leadership. So in order for DRP to attain a majority in the run-off they will have to persuade at least over 20% of voters from each of the 3 candidates who have formed an alliance with MDP. Since IDP has bailed out of the coalition, I assume that at the most 50% will swing to DRP (may be unlikely but for argument sake). Also assuming that none of the DRP and MDP voter will swing any way, I present the following analysis (see table above).

Based on the above analysis with a 10%, 15% and 20% swing voters from each of the 3 aligning candidates give the following results (IDP swing is kept constant at 50% for above explained reasons for all calculations)

10% Swing
DRP: 78,774 votes (45%)
MDP Coalition: 97,793 votes (55%)

15% Swing
DRP: 81,678 votes (46%)
MDP Coalition: 94,889 votes (54%)

20% Swing
DRP: 84,581 votes (48%)
MDP Coalition: 91,986 votes (52%)

Question is, is it an attainable task to get such a drastic swing in the remaining couple of weeks? It is up to the voters to decide! And of course the final assumption is that the voter turn out should also remain equally high as the first round of the elections.

This analysis was presented by Ahmed Afaal, for the readers of this blog. He has his own blog (No politics) at http://afaal.blogspot.com/. As always I welcome contributions from the readers of this blog, which I will publish for the benefit of other readers and to keep this blog rich in content.

Can we mend the electoral list?

As I was waiting for the girl behind the counter to issue my ballot paper, I overheard the old man behind me in the queue asking whether his name was on the list. From the ensuing conversation I gathered he had gone to another polling station in Henveiru and was told his name was not there. It wasn't there in our polling station either. So the old man, despite being born and brought up in Male and registered in the same Henveiru house all his life and despite having a valid ID card had to go home without voting.

A friend of mine, a 60-year old lady living in Henveiru was luckier. On Election Day morning, she went to the Maafannu polling station where she was guided to go. Her name wasn't there however and she was directed to go to a neighboring station. Fortunately she could vote there.

Another friend, a pre-school teacher, said she had no such problem at all. In fact her name was listed in two different polling stations, one in Galolhu where her father's house is located and one in Machchangolhi where her mother's house is located. Her father's name was also on the list even though he died 13 years ago. She had pointed this out to election officials even last year during the August referendum. But clearly no action has been taken.

There are many anecdotes like this across the Maldives. So obviously there are major problems with the electoral list. Is there a solution to this?

In some countries Election Commissions do not rely solely on national ID cards. Rather they require voters to come and register after supplying proof of citizenship and identity. Even in the Maldives a similar procedure was followed for registering people who wanted to vote outside their home islands. Can we use such a registering process for all citizens to improve the electoral roll?

Did Gayoom gain sympathy votes for threats on him?

During the final weeks of the campaign President Gayoom's campaign faced threats in some islands. Apart from minor violence directed at his running mate, there were no physical attacks. Did the threats trigger a sympathy wave for him among the undecided voters in those islands? To answer this question let us compare his vote share in those islands against his national vote share (40.6%).

Maavaah, Laamu Atoll: Protesters prevented unloading of Gayoom's car and his trip was called off.

• In the election Gayoom polled 53% from Maavah. This was 12.4 percentage points above his national average.
  

Hithadhoo, Laamu Atoll: A week before the election some senior members of DRP were forced off the island.

• Gayoom polled 48.5% from Hithadhoo. This was 7.9 percentage points above national average.
  

Kudahuvadhoo, Dhaalu Atoll: DRP Vice President Ahmed Shyam was forced to leave the island and Gayoom's trip to the island was called off.

• From Kudahuvadhoo Gayoom scored 43.2%. This was 2.6 percentage points above Gayoom's average across the nation.
  

Thulhaadhoo, Baa Atoll: Gayoom's running mate Thasmeen Ali was forced to leave the island.

• Gayoom scored 37.95% from Thulhaadhoo. This was 3.7 percentage points below his national average.
  

Huvarafushi, Haa Atoll: President Gayoom was physically attacked in the island at the beginning of the year. Though this occurred several months back, Huvarafushi was included in the analysis because the islanders are certain to retain vivid memories of the incident.

• From Huvarafushi Gayoom scored 40.4%. This was nearly equal to his national average.
  

Kulhuduffushi, Haa Dhaalu Atoll: Some resident of the island launched a virulent physical attack on Ahmed Abdullah, Minister for Environment at the time. This incident also occurred several months back, but was included because of its serious nature.

• Gayoom scored 41.4% from Kulhudhuffushi. This was 0.8 percentage points above his national average.
  

Comments:

In 4 of the islands Gayoom scored above his national average in the election. Only in one island did he score significantly below the national average. In evaluating the significance of these findings one must keep in mind that at the time of each incident the perpetrators probably thought they had an overwhelming majority in the island. If they were right about this, that majority eroded quite drastically following the incidents.

If all the opposition unites Anni will win

By Mohamed Naahii (Engineering student in Sri Lanka)

If all the opposition unites there is a very high chance Gayoom will not win. Here are the main reasons why I believe Anni (Mohamed Nasheed) would get more support and win.

• It is now expected that the opposition would garner more and more support because Anni has said all the capable opposition leaders such as Hassan Saeed and Gasim Ibrahim would be in his government. This would definitely boost his support because there are people who support Gasim, Hassan and Ibra, who would surely give a thumbs up for Anni as they would like to see their candidates in top posts of the government, eventually benefitting the whole country. We could now imagine a dream team consisting of former Finance Minister Gasim, Dr. Hassan Saeed, Dr. Shaheed, Mr. Ibrahim Ismail, Dr. Musthafa Luthfee, Dr Jameel and other capable opposition leaders if Anni wins. These leaders have high popularity amongst the people.
  

• We can even see Anni's proposal for an MDP led alliance also has come true. Though many have forgotten what happened to the National Unity Alliance, Anni has been campaigning with the label 'an MDP led Alliance' since MDP Primary elections. This would be a factor that would gain him more support. Remember that Maldivians are known to always look at the words of politicians and see how true those words become in the end. This would be a clear indication for them to realize that Anni is living up to his words.
  

• Also Dr. Hassan himself has said he would personally work to gain support for Anni. We shouldn't forget that he has been a very strong influence in the election (obviously winning 17% in the election proves this). Because of this his loyal support and backing to Anni plus Anni's idea of including Dr. Hassan's team in his government is a very tactical formula, which would definitely bring a positive impact on the run off, especially in Addu atoll. Though there maybe people who would change their minds, their numbers would be less than those who would follow Dr. Hassan to support Anni.
  

• There are a so many people who want a change, so many people who want to see another leader. There are plenty of Maldivian people who want this regime to end. They would definitely opt for Anni as he is the only choice and their belief in change would even be strengthened because of the alliance of opposition candidates. Like Waheed has said in his blog post, there will be people who would change their minds because of the uniting of the leaders.
  

• Also ongoing rumors would definitely have an impact on the way of thinking of the people. Technically these rumors – such as two vice presidents of DRP joining opposition – basically would be more advantageous to the opposition than Gayoom. Unless Gayoom clearly proves to the people these rumors are false, it would be an advantage for the opposition.
  

Due to these very important 5 factors that came to my mind after personally doing a small analysis, here is my bet. A bundle of sticks would be stronger than one individual stick. What I am trying to say is that if all the opposition unites at this stage, Anni will definitely win. If not, just forget it. Gayoom is setting a historical record of 35 years of rule in the Maldive Islands.

[Note: This article was submitted by Mohamed Naahii, an Engineering student in Sri Lanka, and so the contents are his intellectual property. This blog will consider for publication articles that are constructive, avoid obscene language and do not needlessly launch personal attacks on individuals or communities. Authors of controversial articles are requested to identify themselves or at least open a line of communication for readers to use.]

Maldives has decided, but what?

The results of the first phase of Presidential Election 2008 would have surprised those who thought with their hearts, but perhaps not those who thought with their brains. The most striking result of the election is that Maumoon Abdul Gayoom is still the most popular leader in the Maldives. But this is something that should have been obvious to anyone who analyzed things rationally.

Gayoom is easily the most marketed product in the Maldives with brand recognition almost universal among all age groups from toddlers to oldsters. In each of the 200 odd inhabited islands he has a group of loyal supporters among the island administration and women's development committees who would campaign for him. Even if they manage to recruit 100 voters in each island, the total would up to 20,000 votes. Considering all this, the result is not surprising at all.

The purpose of this article however is not to explain the results, but to analyze what they mean and see if there are any lessons for the second phase. Already the main political parties are staking their claims and counter claims about the results. Let us take some of these claims and see to what extent they are justified.

Is Gayoom the most popular politician?

• This claim of DRP is justified considering the 40.6% votes he polled against 25.1% by his nearest rival.
  


• Part of the reasons for his success is discussed above. The other reason was perhaps other candidates devoted more time on negative campaigning against Gayoom rather than promoting themselves positively. Perhaps there is a lesson in this for Anni in the second round campaign.
  

Are 60% of Maldivians opposed to Gayoom?

• This is not necessarily true. In this poll citizens primarily voted positively for who they thought was best. To take the converse and say all those who did not vote for Gayoom were opposed to him is to stretch the imagination a bit too much.
  


• To illustrate how dangerous it is to interpolate poll results to other situations, let me present a historic example. At the end of 20^th Century, sports journalists and experts voted to decide the all time greatest sports personality. In this poll boxer Muhammad Ali won after beating the likes of Pele, Maradonna and Don Bradman (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/sport/561352.stm). So when it came to the next poll to decide who the boxing all time personality was, one would have thought Muhammad Ali would win easily. But he was beaten to that spot by another boxer, Sugar Ray Robinson (http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/606/A17665914). This left a very funny situation: Ali was the greatest among ALL sportsmen, but in his own sport boxing he was only second best.
  

If the opposition fielded a unified candidate, would he have won?

• This claim is based on the total of about 60% polled by all opposition candidates. The claim may not necessarily be true. Supposing Anni was the unified candidate, many of Hassan Saeed's Addu supporters may not have voted for Anni. The same could also be true for Adhaalat party supporters who voted for Qasim.
  


• So, Hassan Saeed and Qasim were crucial in chipping away at Gayoom's share of votes. Without that Gayoom could perhaps have gone through in the first round itself. Ironically opposition disunity may have saved the day for them.
  

Will all the 40% who voted for Gayoom in the first round also vote for him the second round?

• This is not necessarily true. The results of the first phase have changed the situation quite radically. For example, for many of the 40% who voted for Gayoom, he was perhaps a towering and impregnable figure, an image that could have played a part in their decision to vote. The first phase results have dismantled that image and now he looks more vulnerable. This could affect the voters negatively.
  


• 
  
  Some of the 40% may have preferred Gayoom because the opposition was bitterly divided in the first round and were quarrelling among themselves. This has changed now and so some voters may re-think their original decision.
  
  
  

  
  

Is Ibra finished as a politician?

• This is not necessarily true. The number of votes he polled is probably not a true indication of his popularity. In this election many voters probably avoided voting for him believing he did not have a winning chance. In a hypothetical one to one context with Hassan Saeed or Qasim, Ibra could spring a surprise.
  

How did Umar outperform a high profile politician like Ibra?

• The reason could be his unique agenda for implementing Sharia law for drug smugglers and other criminals.

Who to vote for

Even as the Election Day is upon you, like most Maldivians you also may not have had time to digest all the information that has become available in the past weeks about candidates and their parties. This blog has endeavored to present some such information in a relatively more digestible form, particularly about the agendas of various candidates.

What is most striking about the agendas is that there is no striking difference between them. This is not surprising. Political reforms and national development are not secret sciences like nuclear physics. Nearly everyone knows what to do. So all agendas look pretty much the same.

So how does one decide among them? My personal opinion is that one should look into the backgrounds of each candidate to see their academic qualifications, past performance, integrity of character and unity of purpose. This should give some indication of how much a candidate could deliver. Of course, this is just one way of looking at it. You may prefer another way.

The decision who to for is a very personal one, but it has national implications. I’m sure you have the wisdom and foresight to select the best president for you as well as the nation.

Are there really 208,252 voters?

Election Commission announced on 4th October that there were 208,252 eligible voters in the Maldives. Unfortunately this figure is not in harmony with Maldives Census figures.

Census 2006 taken in March 2006 shows that there were only 181,606 Maldivians above 18 years of age. (Reference: Census Table PP6) In the two hand half years since then this number would have increased, of course, because some youngsters would have attained 18 years during this period. But fortunately we know almost exactly how many would have attained 18 since then. We know this because only those who were 17 years, 16 years and half of those who were 15 on Census date could have attained 18 years by now. As can be easily seen clearly from Census Table PP6, these figures are 7737 people of 17 years, 8428 people of 16 years and 4080 (half of those aged 15). These three figures add up to a total of 20,245 people. Adding this number to the 181,606 people above 18 at the time of Census we get a total of 201,851 people who had attained 18.

However in the two and half years since the Census some of these people would have died. This number can be estimated from the annual number of deaths occurring in the age group over 15 years of age. This figure for one year (2006) is 916. (Reference: Table 3.10, Statistical Yearbook 2007). So for two and half years the number of deaths in people aged 15 and above would be 2290. Deducting these deaths from the total figure of 201,851 who had attained 18, we get the surviving number of people who are currently above 18. This figure is 199,561 people. Thus Census figures (the most reliable record of population in the Maldives) clearly indicate there should be no more than 199,561 eligible voters in the Maldives.

Thus the figure announced by Election Commission is 8169 more than the figure indicated by Census figures. This is an increase of 4.35%.

Is this discrepancy negligible and frivolous? Perhaps not. In a 6-way contest the 4.35% could be more than the difference between the winner and the runner up.

This election may not be final

This election may not be final; and I am not just talking about the first round. Even after any possible second and final round is complete and the winner sworn in, it may still not be final. There are reasons to believe what starts on November 11th will only be a transitional period.

A very recent poll conducted by Social Liberal Party revealed that 40% of Maldivians are yet to decide who to vote for. This figure is plausible considering the responses one gets from friends when one asks them if they have decided on a candidate. So for many Maldivians the decision making process is ongoing and may not be complete at the time of going to the polling station in just two days time.

There are many reasons for this. The last few months have been a rollercoaster ride for Maldivians with too much happening in too short a time. Let alone ordinary citizens, even parties and candidates have not been able to keep up with the pace, with many of them still to publicize their full manifestos. So the voters have not had the opportunity to make a full informed decision.

Citizens are still learning and digesting new information about the candidates. Through the magnifying glass of the media they are learning true as well as false details of the character and personal lives of candidates, their beliefs and inclinations. This information is radically changing their images as people see them. They are turning out to be more of human beings, and less of either the saints they claim to be or the sinners they are accused to be.

The election could also reveal that some leaders are not as strong as they are currently perceived to be. Some others could turn out to be more popular than they are thought. This could lead to realignment of forces in the coming months.

It's difficult to foresee how things will finally turn out. But it's unlikely that the next President will last 30 years. In fact he will be lucky if he survives his first term.

As Maldives celebrates Teachers’ Day…

Even as Maldives celebrates yet another Teachers' Day, few teachers are in a celebratory mood. The profession today faces unprecedented challenges that threaten its very vision as a body capable of guiding the next generation of Maldivians to their maximum individual potential, while instilling in them religious and cultural values and fostering among them social unity and harmony, and love and pride in the nation.

Maldives Association for Teachers' Link, a recently formed NGO of teachers, has identified 16 points that must be addressed urgently to revitalize the profession. Teachers' Link founder member Abdul Qadir Ismail says the priority points among them are related to quality of education, teaching environment and teachers' salaries and benefits.

Teaching is a noble humanitarian service no doubt. But like any other profession, teachers also deserve a certain minimum standard of living commensurate with their contribution to society. An increasing number of teachers today feel that they are being left out in the redistribution of the economic pie that is taking place as a consequence of the reform movement. While the salaries of some public servants have increased tenfold in the past decade, teachers' salaries have remained more or less stagnant. If this trend continues, Qadir says, it will become increasingly difficult to retain good teachers in the profession and maintain quality of education.

Qadir says that teachers' salaries have declined relatively in the past 3 decades when compared to other government servants in the atolls. For example, throughout the 1980s and right up to the mid 90s, teachers were second only to atoll chiefs in terms of salary. All that has changed now. In round after round of periodic government salary hikes, teachers have been sidelined. As a result, many professionals who were paid much less in the 1990s today earn much more than teachers. For example, magistrates today earn about 20,000 rufiyaa per month, compared to about 4940 rufiyaa for a grade-five teacher. Even a mudhim earns almost as much as a teacher. Atoll chiefs today earn 35,000 rufiyaa per month while assistant atoll chiefs earn 12,000 rufiyaa.

Inconsistency in providing housing is also a major issue for teachers, Qadir says. Some teachers get housing flats at very nominal rents, while others don't get even a housing allowance. Many teachers today live in rented accommodation paying much more than their salaries.

Teachers' salary scale was in the making since 2002, and was at long last adopted last year. However, it is yet to be financially implemented. Qadir says it is difficult to accept the excuses put forward for the delay, such as lack of budget and shortage of finances. He says provisions could have been included in this year's budget itself because the new salary scale was adopted as early as last November. On the other hand there is a long list of unbudgeted salary hikes implemented this year, including increased salaries for majlis members, independent institutions, etc.

Coming to the quality of education, Qadir says there are serious problems with the curriculum, physical facilities and discipline. The Law on Children's Rights introduced in the early 1990's is a major impediment to maintaining discipline, he says. Because of the law it has been difficult to take any action on pupils who misbehave and distract others. According to Qadir one of the reasons why Ahmediyya School has been able to maintain high grades is because the management insisted on taking strict action on unacceptable behavior, despite pressure from the authorities.

Teacher's Day is an opportunity to reflect on the status of the teaching profession. Unless we as a nation are prepared to give teachers the decent life they deserve, they as a profession will not be in a position to command the respect of their students and raise them as responsible citizens.

What this election is all about

By anonymous visitor to blog

We analyze politics at the same level as kids. And I am surprised that even the so called intellectuals do not fully grasp the picture. As much as some like it to be, the issue in the election is not about Maumoon. It is not even about the election of a president. This election is all about bringing a much desired correction to the system. We are in the process of adjusting to a new equilibrium.

And what is it, you may ask?

The world has changed rapidly in the last 10 years with new technology, internet, mobile phones, cable TV, cheap travel in a tsunami of globalization. We are now part of the global culture, for which we are making the adjustment. This requires a serious upgrade of the political system - you don't do it by blaming Maumoon. In fact Maumoon is not even a factor here.

We are witnessing a global change that demands an equivalent change to our attitudes and lifestyles. Out with the tried, tested and failed methods; and in with the values and aspirations of Generation X.

This is not a time to be nostalgic about past people such as Amin Didi and Nasir. They are also not without their share of blame in maintaining our present feudal power structure.

Power is not about right or wrong. It is about sustainability of the current system, which has been in Maldives for centuries.

Now with globalization and with new rules, even Maldives is forced to change. No one can hold it back.

Question is who is best to lead this. None of the candidates have proven credentials to do this. Who is talking about new technology and new ways of doing things?

Even USA and Europe are changing and adjusting to the new reality. But our learned PhD people are talking of copying their systems which they themselves are questioning now.

Our present situation demands a good statesman who is able to articulate the values and aspirations of our new generation. That is the future.

The future cannot be determined by the values of the middle-aged people, because they are just as clueless as kids.

[Note: This article was submitted by an anonymous visitor to this blog, and so the contents are his/her intellectual property. This blog will consider for publication articles that are constructive, avoid obscene language and do not needlessly launch personal attacks on individuals or communities. Authors of controversial articles are requested to identify themselves.]

‘Beg Your Pardon’ –a selection of political quotes

"We are navigating a dangerous ocean, and getting wrecked on each reef –drugs, religious divisions, housing shortages, basic services like jetties, crime." –Umar Naseer on TVM's Riyaasee Suvaalu program on 3 September 2008 explaining why he is contesting the presidential election

"I will strengthen the steps already being carried out, and will work to solve this in the next five years." –President Gayoom on TVM's Riyaasee Suvaalu program on 3 September 2008 explaining how he will fulfill his promise on drugs.

"As you know there will be occasions in a country's life. Every country faces moments, moments that change the country's situation from one state to another. I am certain what is being played out tonight is one of those moments." –Anni speaking on TVM's Riyaasee Suvaalu program on 3 September 2008

"No mother or father has the certainty their child will be able to return after they go to the shop next door." –Dr. Hassan Saeed on TVM's Riyaasee Suvaalu program on 3 September 2008

"I believe the state of the country has come to this because rule of law has not been established in the country, people have been discriminated against at various levels before the law, and the system has been shaped to provide national opportunities to different people in different ways." –Ibra on TVM's Riyaasee Suvaalu program on 3 September 2008

"I came to Male' from my island for education. I was unable to get a proper education and I do not want others to be deprived of a proper education. That is why I do my part in contributing to the society." –Gasim Ibrahim speaking at a party rally on 11 September 2008

"What is a weapon? I did not use any sharp weapon. No pistol, knife, gun, cutter, nothing. I always had a pen in my pocket. That is the weapon." –President Gayoom on TVM's Siyaasath program on 16 September 2008, responding to the question whether he was in possession of anything that could be considered a weapon when he took the oath in 1978

"The solution is Umar." –Umar Naseer's campaign slogan

"The coming presidential elections will be the most fair and free election ever in the entire South Asia region." –Anni speaking to Colombo based diplomats on 29 September 2008

"Convince me and I will believe." –Entry in Ibra's official website

"Those who say I have a selfish motive to become president are right: I want the job to solve the difficulties people face today." –Gasim Ibrahim speaking at the official launching of his campaign, responding to allegations that he was selfish

"A new future for Maldivians; a new leader for the Maldives." –Dr. Hassan Saeed's campaign slogan.

Who can lead the Maldives for a better tomorrow?

By Mohamed A. (A Maldivian student abroad)

Dr. Hassan and Dr. Shaheed cannot rule the Maldives for the people, because they were once part of a corrupt regime. They inherited that philosophy. They left the government and formed a group because they were opportunists who wanted to get power badly by hook or crook. They are taking credit for a reform movement initiated by Anni with support from the people who are against the dictatorial rule of Maumoon.

Maumoon is talking about taking Maldives to new heights. He ruined the Maldives for the last 30 yrs. He never wanted Maldivians to progress; and to prevent this he gave a blind eye to the drug mafia actively destroying each and every household in the Maldives. This is his way of staying in power.

The development that took place in the Maldives was only foreign aid. Most of the schools were constructed with Japanese aid, Social Center with Japanese aid, and Regional hospitals with foreign aid. Now he is planning to make a deal on Indira Gandhi Memorial Hospital with a Singapore firm. How can he improve medical services without spending on medical education and training doctors? Last 20 years there were many school leavers who wanted to become doctors. But he did nothing for them. Because of his education and development policy Maldives lacks skilled persons in every field. People were made to work like bonded laborers where they cannot make the ends meet with the salary. Those who could steal the public money they stole to make the ends meet.

There is nothing in Maldives that people are happy about. The country has become a hell to live and raise a family.

I am a student studying abroad. The last Republic day I was in Maldives and viewed a programme telecast by TV Maldives. The programme was produced on the basis of some research done on former president the late Mohamed Amin Didi by Maldives Historical Research Center. The programme was based on an article written by Mohamed Amin on his vision for the Maldives.

After viewing the programme I believe that the father of modern democracy in the Maldives is President Mohamed Amin. In his vision he planned to introduce modern education to Maldives, give education and rights to women. He also planned to provide college education in the Maldives. And also he mentioned in his vision to introduce party system politics to Maldives. He completed 20% of the work he mentioned in the vision within the first year of his rule.

After viewing this programme I now believe the presidents that the Maldivians got after late President Amin Didi, especially Maumoon, are none but only dictators.

During my holiday in Male' I also visited some of my friends. Most of them live in one room homes. Most of the families living in Male' have to live and sleep in only one room with grown up boys and girls. Most of them have gone to drugs. There is no life for them. The little income these families earn goes to drugs.

The Islamic scholars now enter politics and confuse the public regarding religion. One day they say Maumoon is not a Muslim of Sunni sect and the other day they go to court. These Islamic scholars, don't they have anything better to do instead of mixing religion and politics? It looks like everyone is hungry to become president.

The country needs people like Anni who have the strength to face the dictator, who have the courage to challenge the dictator's regime and who can lead the Maldives for a better tomorrow. The country will change for the better if he is elected to lead the Maldives for the next 5yrs.

[Note: This article was submitted by a student, Mohamed A., and so the contents are his responsibility. This blog will consider for publication articles that are constructive, avoid obscene language and do not needlessly launch personal attacks on individuals or communities.]