Monday, September 22, 2008

Is Anni’s DhiFM poll win significant?



Washington Times routinely adds the following warning notice to its web based opinion polls: "This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate." This just about sums up the validity of 'voodoo' opinion polls conducted through the net or SMS. Keeping this in mind, is there any significance to the opinion polls conducted during the last two weekends by DhiFM?


As the graph above shows, Anni led both the opinion polls with a wide margin. In fact from the first to the second poll Anni increased his share of votes from 3969 (40.7%) to 5344 (49.2%). This gain has come at the expense of the second and third candidates, Maumoon and Hassan Saeed. Maumoon's vote share dropped from 2362 (24.2%) to 2005 (18.5%); while Hassan Saeed's share dropped from 2341 (24%) to 2121 (19.5%). Interestingly, since Hassan's percentage drop was a bit smaller, he edged past Maumoon to the second position.


Among the remaining candidates Gasim (9.6%) and Umar (2.7%) had improved upon their past performance, while Ibra had slipped lower. (The percentages given here were calculated after deducting the votes polled by Dr. Waheed, Jaaney and Muiz, who are no longer presidential candidates. Thus these figures will differ slightly from the original DhiFM figures.)


All of us present in Male during the last two weekends know that there was a frenzy of SMS passing through Dhiraagu and Wataniya networks, frantically urging supporters to vote between 11 and 12 pm. Apparently many people who received the SMS simply ignored it. Otherwise the total should have been considerably higher.


The SMS poll certainly does not reflect the opinions of the 200,000 odd voters in the Maldives. But it does reflect something: the organizing capacities of the different political parties and the enthusiasm of their supporters. Will such organizing capacity and enthusiasm make a difference in bringing out voters to the polling stations on 8th October? The answer seems fairly obvious.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

We can turn the tide together,of the past so many years and build our national movement to bring about the real change this country needs.If you're not sure if you're registered or if you have any questions, take a minute to visit the Maldivian consulate if you are in India before 25 September 2008.
Declare to vote For change.

Leonides said...

I think Umar Naseer the 'Spartan' is the ideal candidate for the Maldives.

Umar will bring the old values of ancient Sparta to the Maldives. With strict eugenics observed in the Maldives Soon enough we will be able to raise a army of around 300 to hold off the Bangaalhi invasion. Maybe we can hold of a allied Persian\Arab army.

Anonymous said...

ehem

Anonymous said...

SMS polls conducted by DhiFm last three weeks not give you a real picture or situation on the ground but it is a boost for supporters of Anni. it is also not a guarantee that Anni can win the election. there are many reasons why. first of all we are not sure the voters age. i believe there is a huge number possessing mobile phone under 18 years and most of them are Annis fans. some other reasons are there too. i also not agree with Ali Waheeds statement regarding this polls.

Anonymous said...

without a doubt Anni is the most popular candidate among the maldivians of all ages.. however those over 18 are the eligible ones to vote in the selection of the presidency... the dhifm poll maybe a bit skeptical among them. Its a wait and see for the most popular spot..however Hassan is sure to be the most popular amongst the educated voter..

Anonymous said...

Parts of this post look similar to what is shown here few days ago http://maldives.tumblr.com ?

Anyway good work.

Anonymous said...

this does not reflect the opinion of the vote base..... It is only the opinion of mobile savvy lot.... let us wait and see what happens on 8th October....

Think Again said...

Well we dont know yet.

But Anni has decived us two times. Atleast me.

1. Anni said he would not run for the president. But at the end he said only he cud win it against Maumoon.

2. Anni has always said that Dr. M Waheed is a traitor. A kid who runs back to the high shores with every comming wave! But now, Dr. Waheed is his running mate and the best one can ever get.

3. Anni has said that he would take Maumoon to court when this regieme ends. But now he says he would respect Maumoon for having lead the country for 30 years!!

tma said...

Latest unofficial government poll

MDP 48%

DRP 20%

Dr Hassan 23%

Gasim 07%

IBRA and IDP and margin of Error are withing the remaining %.

And mostly it is confirmed after the VP debate on TV Dr Waheed and Dr Shaheed did a very good job. And there are also rumours Dr Hassan might form a coalition government with DRP.