Saturday, September 6, 2008

Why did Dr. Hassan lead the DhiFM survey?



When Dr. Hassan Saeed took an overwhelming 85% lead in the SMS survey conducted by DhiTV last night, it shocked many viewers. Conventional wisdom was that either Gayoom or Anni would win, or perhaps Gasim. So how did Hassan upset all these calculations?

Some say Dr. Hassan has charisma, or at least some sort of charm on young ladies. Others say he fits the mental image most Maldivians have of the archetypical president, an image that has been etched into their psyche through 30 years of TV programming. Yet others say he is capable and has a better manifesto. So, which of these factors helped him to top the survey?

We may never be able to answer this question accurately. However, there are some pointers to the truth. Let us examine them one by one.

  • When Hassan joined the cabinet in 2003, he was basically an island boy with no family connections and hardly any experience in Maldivian politics. But within two years, he became the most powerful man in the cabinet, outsmarting both Kamineege and Endherimaage camps, beating them at their own game. What sort of talent enabled Hassan to achieve this?
  • Prior to 2003, Attorney General's Office was a dull and drab institution, with very little to do except passing on police investigation reports to the courts. By the time Hassan resigned in 2007, AG Office has become the center of the government's reform agenda. How did this happen? Was Hassan favored by Gayoom as some people allege? But why on earth would Gayoom prefer him over his relatives and friends?
  • In the first DRP Congress, Hassan was elected as one of the vice presidents. His success over rich businessmen like Nazim, Jabir and Nashid as well as a seasoned politician like Ilyas surprised many. What was the talent he used to achieve this?
  • In June this year, when I (the author of this blog) visited Kulhudhuffushi and some other islands in Haa Dhaalu and talked to the people, many of them including middle aged women told me Hassan was saying "some good things." (Varah rangalhu vaahaka dhakkaa.) They were obviously referring to Hassan's manifesto. By that time most other presidential candidates either did not have an agenda or just concentrated on criticizing the government. Was it Hassan's well written and well articulated manifesto that set him apart as the alternative to Gayoom?

Of course, it's still very early in the campaign to predict who the winner will be. Further, an SMS survey is not an accurate scientific measure of public opinion. But still, the results of the survey certainly give a boost to Hassan's campaign. There will be many more surveys along the way. However, their accuracy will be more and more suspect as rival candidates will most certainly try to influence the surveys by recruiting bogus voters.

11 comments:

primary0 said...

seems like many people are talking about this. yes it was surprising! i setup a poll on mvheadlines.com, expecting anni/maumoon/ibra leads. and instead, hassan is way ahead of everyone else. makes one suspicious you know. i actually do support him, but no, that poll is not played with as far as i am concerned. but it CAN be fooled too, by visitors, just like how any media poll can be rigged.

opinions said...

The count of the poll was seriuosly mishandled by Salle. I was there at DhiFM that night and when the results on his laptop and that on Dhiraagu SMS portal was compared Anni or Ibra was leading. There were only few "h"s..

I don't know what is the relationship between Salle and Hassan Saeed.

Anonymous said...

Hey, Don't you guys know? Dhifm and DhiTV has an agenda in promoting Hassan Saeed. Khaleel, Massood & Salle have their own agendas and are very close to Dr. Shaheed and Hassan. Perhaps Champa is unaware of this. If he knows, he wouldn't have allowed so much of airtime for Hassan. A friend of mine has seen Dr. Shaheed, Dr. Hassan, Khaleel, Salle and Massod chatting at a Restaurant. Its obvious, as 'opinions' has said, that the sms vote was rigged and mishandled. They always do this...you know. Khaleel and the gang remains to be what they are. BTW, how many SMS did they recieve? Does anyone watch or listen to them these days?

Anonymous said...

hthrth

Anonymous said...

this is obvious, to some of us still is difficult to accept the fact. somehow this is human nature. they always believe their leader is perfect. in Hassan case he is leading most of internet polls conducting these day like mvheadlines, linkroad, himeyn-ingilaab even in Jazeera recently. i don't think Salle or Khaleel can manipulate all these polls.

Anonymous said...

Dhifm Khaleel's wife and Dr. Shaheed's wife are relatives. When Khaleel had to leave TVM due to conflicts of interest, Dr. Shaeed brought him to Foreign Ministry as Assisantant Executive Director. Now kaleel is on no pay leave. It is quite obvious that Dhifm has been agenda of promoting New Maldives group for presidency. Even Ameen, a reporter at Dhifm is also New Maldives politician...

New Maldives trying to distort facts and figure, distort and information. Dhifm polls is just like like Open Society polls....New Maldives even getting into power trying to distort public.

Anonymous said...

Update you blog...this is very misleading...Dr. Hassan was not leading.....it was fraud.......according to Dhifm...the poll was wrong...inaccurate...Anni was leading.................not Dr.Hassan

Anonymous said...

May be dhifm poll's result is wrong but you cannot deny the fact Dr. Waheed has put in his article. he won the naib zaeem magam against all so called rich man like ADK Nashid, Ilya Ibrahim, Nazi and Jabir. Khaleel and Salle has no influence on that i guess.

Abdullah Waheed's Blog said...

In response to some comments from readers the site editor wishes to clarify the blog’s position on the accuracy of the opinion poll:
1. SMS surveys are always prone to manipulation, so their accuracy will always remain suspect;
2. While DhiFm later issued a disclaimer, it did not spell out the problems in the survey. So the possibility remains that the disclaimer was issued under pressure from political parties.

Anonymous said...

It has been claer that the results of the DhiFM survey certainly try to give a boost to Hassan's campaign.

DhiFM also aired other stakeholders' interviews, including Dr. Shaeed, Uz. Hassan Latheef from SLP, and Shaafiu from DRP.....Dr. Waheed, please don't try to mislead readers, As a doctor, I am sure, you konw the importance of facts.

Anonymous said...

Now we have a very good idea about the position of Waheed and Hassan.